Completion Pct, YPC, and Winning Percentage

From CougarStats, a grid showing the interplay of completion percentage (x-axis), yards per completion (y-axis), and win percentage (cell value):



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This season BYU is averaging 59% completions, and 10.8 ypc, so an optimist might call us "overachievers," but my take is that's because the grid doesn't factor in defensive prowess at all, not because RN is some willpower machine.



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Yep, BYU doesn't go downfield enough. Doman has been very reluctant to go downfield regardless of the QB. He needs to go downfield.

BYU definitely needs to go downfield more. Riley does not. Welcome to limited QB-U



Riley is not a down field passer. Do you really want Nelson, who misses WIDE OPEN Receivers at a mere 15 yards at least once a game, to be called on to make a perfect 40-yard rainbow to a streaking receiver up the sidelines? And you thought Nelson' TD/INT ratio was bad now.



For Worse or for worser, Nelson is the Qb and he has severe limitations. The way I feel now is that when Riley drops back to pass, 3 things can happen.

All of them are bad.

yes, I want Riley to go down field more.

Riley does not see thefield well. Apo is invsible to him. HE also throws moonballs down the field. OF course Doman calls few plays. RIley has the arm strength of a good high school QB. HE is best in the 15 yard zone and under, and everyone knows it.

I don't know whether it's (i) Doman not having downfield throws in the playbook, (ii) Doman is too afraid to call the downfield plays he has, (iii) Doman cannot call the downfield plays in his playbook, or (iv) Doman calls the downfield plays, but Nelson skips the primary reads frequently.

SpiffCoug wrote:
yes, I want Riley to go down field more.

Riley in Wazzou condition? Yes, with moderation.



Riley in post-Weber State condition? Heeeeeeeeeeeell no.

Riley threw downfield against Idaho and GT.



Yes, his deep ball may be lacking in zip and distance, and he may not hit guys in stride, but he can get it close to his big WRs liek Hoffman and Apo. Those guys can make plays on the ball - and they have - when Riley has gone down field.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Riley threw downfield against Idaho and GT.



Yes, his deep ball may be lacking in zip and distance, and he may not hit guys in stride, but he can get it close to his big WRs liek Hoffman and Apo. Those guys can make plays on the ball - and they have - when Riley has gone down field.

Since Weber State (beginning with the Utah game), Nelson has 42 completions over 12 yards, but 7 interceptions caught more than 12 yards past the LOS. If you push the receptions to over 15 yards to compensate for YAC, he's 35/7. That means when he throws the ball downfield, if it's not an incompletion one out of six times it's picked.



Then again if you want to pin your hat on the fact that he had 12 completions over 12 yards with no interceptions against the #114 and #115 ranked pass defenses, that's fine by me. Add to that some newly sustained cracked ribs and you want him to keep huckin' it downfield? :munch:

I still want BYU going downfield more.

SpiffCoug wrote:
I still want BYU going downfield more.

There's a difference between wanting BYU to go downfield more (I don't think anyone disagrees with that) and wanting RN in his present condition to go downfield more (VERY few agree with that).

Agreed.



I'm not sure Riley should have seen the field from half time of the Weber game until the OS game at a minimum.

When you take into factor a couple hundred yards on the shovel pass that are 100% all JWill and his legs creating, than yards per completion and "YAC" go completely out the window, into the manure pile waiting to fertilize the garden.



Our passing offense to date is: RN lobs it in the air - seeminly underhanded - (if it is catchable at all) and the receiver gets nailed going up for it, or coming back to it.



Ask Cody Hoffman and his separated shoulder how well Riley is passing downfield now. Poor guy. It was obvious he was going to get hurt, Nelson hung him out to dry on nearly every play. I honestly don't think that there is a soul on earth that can tell me with a straight face and no gamesmanship that one of our backups couldn't throw a better ball in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
When you take into factor a couple hundred yards on the shovel pass that are 100% all JWill and his legs creating, than yards per completion and "YAC" go completely out the window, into the manure pile waiting to fertilize the garden.



Our passing offense to date is: RN lobs it in the air - seeminly underhanded - (if it is catchable at all) and the receiver gets nailed going up for it, or coming back to it.



Ask Cody Hoffman and his separated shoulder how well Riley is passing downfield now. Poor guy. It was obvious he was going to get hurt, Nelson hung him out to dry on nearly every play. I honestly don't think that there is a soul on earth that can tell me with a straight face and no gamesmanship that one of our backups couldn't throw a better ball in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

So what you are saying is that shovel and screen passes aren't legit because the RB gets most of the yards after the catch. Yeah, that's legit. I seem to remember Heaps not even being able to comlete screens, usually missed his target by about 10 feet over the head. As far as other QB's throwing prettier balls in the 3rd and 4th q's. You may be right but the caviat is they would have to do it before being put on their backs by the defense since our Oline would do better being matadors instead of olineman right now.

No, I'm saying it isn't a real pass. Even though it is counted in the records as a 40 yard pass, it was a 2 yard option pitch, for example.



Why are you bringing Heaps into this?



Oh, and newsflash: We didn't ever do screens before this year. (we still technically don't) You might be talking about an "out route", which is different.

frdbtr wrote:

I seem to remember Heaps not even being able to comlete screens, usually missed his target by about 10 feet over the head.

like clockwork, here comes mrs. nelson to save riley's reputation.



you cannot be serious. you do realize that heaps is not the left handed guy who is #13 this year, right? the guy who, if he doesn't throw a screen 10 ft over the receiver's head, throws it at their feet so they have to dive for it, right? but yes, tell me how THAT is the o-line's fault. do you even watch the games?

SHIZ wrote:

I seem to remember Heaps not even being able to comlete screens, usually missed his target by about 10 feet over the head.

like clockwork, here comes mrs. nelson to save riley's reputation.



you cannot be serious. you do realize that heaps is not the left handed guy who is #13 this year, right? the guy who, if he doesn't throw a screen 10 ft over the receiver's head, throws it at their feet so they have to dive for it, right? but yes, tell me how THAT is the o-line's fault. do you even watch the games?

I don't see how pointing out how bad Heaps was is defending Riley. You do realize, statistically, Heaps was the ONLY BYU QB worse than Nelson, right?

SHIZ wrote:

I seem to remember Heaps not even being able to comlete screens, usually missed his target by about 10 feet over the head.

like clockwork, here comes mrs. nelson to save riley's reputation.



you cannot be serious. you do realize that heaps is not the left handed guy who is #13 this year, right? the guy who, if he doesn't throw a screen 10 ft over the receiver's head, throws it at their feet so they have to dive for it, right? but yes, tell me how THAT is the o-line's fault. do you even watch the games?

And here it is like clock work someone calling me mrs nelson because I pointed out how stupid the argument of taking plays away from Riley just because they worked. It doesn't matter whether a pass was 2 yards in the air and 40 yards YAC, or if the ball was 40 yards in the air, it counts as yards. The shovel pass is an effective play called that Riley and Jamaal executed very well, along with the offensive line. It counts....freaking get over it.

Lol, if you think throwing the ball for 200 yards in the air, and pitching the ball where the rb runs for 200 yards on an option pitch I'll just leave you in your ignorance.



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BlueIsBetter wrote:
Lol, if you think throwing the ball for 200 yards in the air, and pitching the ball where the rb runs for 200 yards on an option pitch I'll just leave you in your ignorance.



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There is no difference. When you throw for 200 yards in the air, the line blocks well, the QB throws well and the reciever catches the ball. When you do option pitches or shovel passes, the Line blocks well, we have a good pitch and the RB follows his blockers well for picked up yards. All well designed and executed plays. You notice that in the SJSU game they tried a shovel pass and it went nowhere, not executed well. Simple as that. You guys want to take positive plays away from Riley in order to discount the good plays he has done, like saying that on his long throws, they would have gone for touchdowns on better thrown balls. That may be true but he still completed the ball for major positive yards. BYU scored later on those plays anyway.