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Stats, perception, and reality

by Mars · 11/12/2012

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M
Mars


6-4 BYU is 19th in Sagarin's Predictor Ranking.

8-2 Utah State is 21st.

8-2 Boise State is 29th.

8-2 SJSU is 32nd.

4-6 Utah is 33rd.

5-5 Georgia Tech is 56th.



Rank those 6 teams in order from best to worst. My attempt:



1- BSU, 2- BYU, 3- Utah State, 4- Utah, 5- SJSU, 6- Georgia Tech.



I think that spots one through five are all almost interchangable. BYU is about as good as each of those four teams, not much better or not much worse either way (although the MWC/WAC teams have a weaker SOS and are all still in contention for a conference championship).



For one example, USU beat Utah who beat BYU who beat USU. Utah played Oregon State and Washington State better than BYU did, and currently has the 11th-rated SOS. BYU played Hawaii better than Boise State did, but BYU lost to BSU who lost to SDSU who lost to SJSU (SDSU played Hawaii better than Boise did). SJSU got blown out by Utah State.



BYU is favored over SJSU by 3.5 points this week. BYU was favored over Utah by 3.5 as well, and over USU by 6.5. Boise was favored over BYU by 6 points.



I think it's clear that BYU is having a worse season right now than the 2-loss teams, and a better season that Utah, but that's not exactly the question. My question is about which team is play the best football on an average week.



Your thoughts?





P.S. I think that SJSU may have the 3rd best WRs we face this season, and the 2nd-best QB/WR combo (behind Oregon State and ahead of Washington State). And we are still trying to figure out how to replace Joe Sampson in the secondary...
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SpiffCoug
BYU beats Boise if they play again. Or if they had played that game in Provo on on a neutral site.
G
golong
BYU beats Boise if the coaches have their heads screwed on correctly. In my opinion (and I love Bronco and Doman), the coaches blew that game badly, from QB play to going for two, to who knows what else they had messed up in their heads. Personally, I hope we end up playing Boise again in San Diego. I don't like SDSU and wouldn't care if we never played them again.
M
Mars
SpiffCoug wrote:
BYU beats Boise if they play again. Or if they had played that game in Provo on on a neutral site.

So do you think that BYU is the best team in that group?



I know that the Las Vegas bowl wants Boise, and that the San Diego bowl does NOT.
C
cougman
BYU with Taysom Hill is the best team in that group. BYU with our incumbent is exactly as you say. If we win this week, I won't be surprised. If we lose this week I won't be surprised. If either outcome is greater than 7, I'll be surprised.
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Cougarbib
cougman wrote:
BYU with Taysom Hill is the best team in that group. BYU with our incumbent is exactly as you say. If we win this week, I won't be surprised. If we lose this week I won't be surprised. If either outcome is greater than 7, I'll be surprised.


Is that the same Taysom Hill that did not see the wide open tight end and missed the open Hoff on that two-point conversion? And did you notice our kicker missing extra points in the next game?



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Brayden Green
Ditto. BYU with our defense and taysom is the best team there.



With Riley we are the 2nd or 3rd team in the group.



With "hurt Riley" we are the worst team there.



This has been a tale of two cities as far as qb goes. With consistent, average play from any of our QB's I have a hard time thinking that we would t be undefeated right now. The offensive line and the qb have been the missing links this season.
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SpiffCoug
Mars wrote:
BYU beats Boise if they play again. Or if they had played that game in Provo on on a neutral site.

So do you think that BYU is the best team in that group?



I know that the Las Vegas bowl wants Boise, and that the San Diego bowl does NOT.

Yes. I think BYU is better than their record. The two teams on the list that beat BYU, I don't think would beat BYU right now a second time - even in the same venues.
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Brayden Green
SpiffCoug wrote:
SpiffCoug wrote:
BYU beats Boise if they play again. Or if they had played that game in Provo on on a neutral site.

So do you think that BYU is the best team in that group?



I know that the Las Vegas bowl wants Boise, and that the San Diego bowl does NOT.

Yes. I think BYU is better than their record. The two teams on the list that beat BYU, I don't think would beat BYU right now a second time - even in the same venues.


I agree. With Riley healthier we probably win those two on the list. Maybe. He still gives the ball away like it's candy to average defenses, so I'm not sure I can call that a hundred percent sure.
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SpiffCoug
Riley only has one turnover the last two games. Seeing Riley play better the last two weeks just makes the coaches' decision to play him against Utah and Boise that much more frustrating.
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Brayden Green
He should have been benched for sure. If not for a health concern reason, at least for a "hold your players accountable for their performance on the field" reason. Almost everyone has sat this year for this on offense, but not Riley. Lasike just started getting the ball back in scrub time because of his fumble quite a few games ago.
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BoiseBYU
SpiffCoug wrote:
Riley only has one turnover the last two games. Seeing Riley play better the last two weeks just makes the coaches' decision to play him against Utah and Boise that much more frustrating.


And so much harder to understand....I just don't get it....
F
frdbtr
Agreed. Biggest coaching blunder IMO in Bronco's tenure at BYU. Never go back on your policies for any 1 player. Riley didn't practice, Riley should not have played. Lark hasn't shown himself as a world beater in the limited time he has been given but I would take a healthy backup over an injured starter any time.
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BroncoBot
SpiffCoug wrote:
Riley only has one turnover the last two games. Seeing Riley play better the last two weeks just makes the coaches' decision to play him against Utah and Boise that much more frustrating.

Absolutely. Riley also wasn't "giving the ball away like candy" before the utah game. His health must have played a huge part of the turnover problems against u of u and bsu.



Anyone have a easy way to show TO/game of healthy Riley vs brokeback Riley?
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BroncoBot
BlueIsBetter wrote:
He should have been benched for sure. If not for a health concern reason, at least for a "hold your players accountable for their performance on the field" reason. Almost everyone has sat this year for this on offense, but not Riley. Lasike just started getting the ball back in scrub time because of his fumble quite a few games ago.

I agree with what you're saying (Riley should have been just as accountable) but did Lasike really get benched for that one fumble? Or is that a theory of yours?



I've never recalled Bronco being someone who benched people for fumbles (jj diluigi, OC come to mind immediately).
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YNot
I want to blame the interception at the goal line (Apo was wide open) and the pick 6 in the Boise State game on Riley's bad back. But I also saw the Georgia Tech game...He just has a tendency to make random bad passes in really inopportune situations.



I honestly think that crowd noise and atmosphere had just as much to do with BYU's (not just Riley's) poor showings against the Ewetes and the Bronkeys as anything else. Both were extremely loud and hostile environments. If those games were in Provo, I would chalk up a win for both...and so would Sagarin....but such was the schedule.



Sagarin has BYU at even with Utah State, and nailed it with the 3-point home field advantage to BYU in Provo.



Sagarin has SJSU's predictor rating at just a point below Boise State. I'm expecting more scoring than in the Boise State game, but it will be a battle!
N
nuk13
Throw in Notre Dame. If that game had have been in Provo I'd think it would have been about a 50 50 proposition. A win there might have put BYU in the top 25 even with the other losses.
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SpiffCoug
YNot wrote:
I want to blame the interception at the goal line (Apo was wide open) and the pick 6 in the Boise State game on Riley's bad back. But I also saw the Georgia Tech game...He just has a tendency to make random bad passes in really inopportune situations.

On the first pick I think his bad back prevented him from throwing the ball into the endzone which is why he was picked off at the 4.



I think the second was just a bad play/decision by Riley who didn't see (somehow) the 300-pound DL.



Riley should have been benched after the Apo throw as it was clear he couldn't even make the throws he normally can make.
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vancouvercougar
Did having Sorenson out with the back injury affect our performance and coaching decisions against BSU and the :utard: ? Would Bronco be more inclined to go for the extra point instead of 2?
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Y12
FWIW, I noticed that Washington (6-4) is #25 in the latest BCS standings.
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