What's the big deal about PER?

School me. Isn't PER overrated? I thought I read somewhere here where PER was accepted as the leading determinant in deciding whether or not a QB is good. Last season when I was bagging on Riley claiming that he had reached his ceiling and everyone was defending him, most would cite his improving PER for grounds to support BM's decision to keep rolling with him. I remember a few games ago against a decent opponent, RN shovel passed twice to JW for a total of over 100 yards. How would that effect his PER? Do wins count for PER? Do rushing yards count? Seems like PER is overrated, either way.

PER is the standard. The number a QB has to hit is 135. It's more related to winning and scoring points than any other stat.



In my tracker, I've got BYU having played 327 games since 1987. BYU's record over that time period is 218-107-2 (.667). They reached the 135 standard in 183 of them. The Cougars record in those 183 games is 160-21-2 (.874).



In the other 144 games when they failed to reach the mark, the record is 58-86 (.403).



In those 327 games, the team with the better PER in the game is 279-46-2 (.853).



You want to win games, win the PER battle and get to the standard.



A shovel pass counts as a pass attempt so that is factored into PER. Yards after the catch count towards PER - so a 45-yard TD pass counts the same whether the ball went 40 yards in the air with a 5 yard run or a 5-yard pass and 40 yard run.



Bronco's record when the team reaches the 135 standard is 52-4 (.929). The four losses were TCU 2005, Arizona 2006, Tulsa 2007, Florida St 2009.



Bronco's record with other various stats:

- Rushing for 100 yards: 63-11 (.851)

- Rushing for 150 yards: 42-4 (.913)

- Passing for 300 yards: 29-12 (.707)

- Turnover Margin of 0: 15-4 (.789)

- Positive Turnover Margin: 40-2 (.952)

- Negative Turnover Margin: 17-22 (.436)



You also score more points when you throw the ball efficiently and have a PER above 135. In those 56 games above the standard, BYU has scored on average 39.9 points. When they haven't met the standard they scored 21.8.



Same categories, but with points per game:

- Rushing for 100 yards: 36.4

- Rushing for 150 yards: 41.3

- Passing for 300 yards: 35.9

- Turnover Margin of 0: 28.7

- Positive Turnover Margin: 40.9

- Negative Turnover Margin: 23.8



It's not perfect and not absolute, but it's about as good as it gets.

SpiffCoug wrote:
PER is the standard. The number a QB has to hit is 135. It's more related to winning and scoring points than any other stat.



In my tracker, I've got BYU having played 327 games since 1987. BYU's record over that time period is 218-107-2 (.667). They reached the 135 standard in 183 of them. The Cougars record in those 183 games is 160-21-2 (.874).



In the other 144 games when they failed to reach the mark, the record is 58-86 (.403).



In those 327 games, the team with the better PER in the game is 279-46-2 (.853).



You want to win games, win the PER battle and get to the standard.



A shovel pass counts as a pass attempt so that is factored into PER. Yards after the catch count towards PER - so a 45-yard TD pass counts the same whether the ball went 40 yards in the air with a 5 yard run or a 5-yard pass and 40 yard run.



Bronco's record when the team reaches the 135 standard is 52-4 (.929). The four losses were TCU 2005, Arizona 2006, Tulsa 2007, Florida St 2009.



Bronco's record with other various stats:

- Rushing for 100 yards: 63-11 (.851)

- Rushing for 150 yards: 42-4 (.913)

- Passing for 300 yards: 29-12 (.707)

- Turnover Margin of 0: 15-4 (.789)

- Positive Turnover Margin: 40-2 (.952)

- Negative Turnover Margin: 17-22 (.436)



You also score more points when you throw the ball efficiently and have a PER above 135. In those 56 games above the standard, BYU has scored on average 39.9 points. When they haven't met the standard they scored 21.8.



Same categories, but with points per game:

- Rushing for 100 yards: 36.4

- Rushing for 150 yards: 41.3

- Passing for 300 yards: 35.9

- Turnover Margin of 0: 28.7

- Positive Turnover Margin: 40.9

- Negative Turnover Margin: 23.8



It's not perfect and not absolute, but it's about as good as it gets.

That response should be pinned. Thanks.

SpiffCoug wrote:
PER is the standard. The number a QB has to hit is 135. It's more related to winning and scoring points than any other stat.



In my tracker, I've got BYU having played 327 games since 1987. BYU's record over that time period is 218-107-2 (.667). They reached the 135 standard in 183 of them. The Cougars record in those 183 games is 160-21-2 (.874).



In the other 144 games when they failed to reach the mark, the record is 58-86 (.403).



In those 327 games, the team with the better PER in the game is 279-46-2 (.853).



You want to win games, win the PER battle and get to the standard.

Yep, the important stat is actually PER differential. It's also one of the most important stats in analyzing NFL outcomes as well (though in its Passer Rating form).

PER differential would at least seem to somewhat take into account my favorite issue - strength of that opponent. That is missing from PER as us QB rushing yards which are becoming more and more a big part of the game.



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Cougarbib wrote:
PER differential would at least seem to somewhat take into account my favorite issue - strength of that opponent. That is missing from PER as us QB rushing yards which are becoming more and more a big part of the game.



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Uh, what?

Cougarbib wrote:
PER differential would at least seem to somewhat take into account my favorite issue - strength of that opponent. That is missing from PER as us QB rushing yards which are becoming more and more a big part of the game.



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I don't see why a rushing stat should be factored into a passing stat.

Cougarbib wrote:
PER differential would at least seem to somewhat take into account my favorite issue - strength of that opponent. That is missing from PER as us QB rushing yards which are becoming more and more a big part of the game.



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PER already takes into account the strength of the opponent's defense. PER differential takes into account both sides of the ball--how your QB plays against their defense versus how your defense plays against their QB.