imuakahuku wrote:
I'll call it. A landslide for Romney. He gets PA. WI, CO, NH, and OH to get over 300 E-votes. Ignore the polls. They are so off it is just silly. The Dems won't be able to cheat enough to even make it close.
Repubs now represent 39% of the population
Dems are down to 34% of the population
Romney is at at least 2 to 1 for independants and that doesn't even include the few undecided that usually swing around 75% or more for the challenger on election day.
Repub energy is way up and Dem enthusiasm is way down.
All the polls still way over sample the Dems based on 2008 and ignores 2010.(from 7 to 11 points which swings about 7 points in the poll (so a 49-47 poll for Obama with an 11 point oversample would actually be about 52-43 Romney if adjusted to a fair sample.)
From my own observation I have seen two Obama bumper stickers this election and about 20 Romeny bumper stickers. May not seem like much but in 2008, it was impossible to count the number of bumper stickers for Obama, it was at least every other car around here. Now just two. Yard signs are at least 15 or 20 to 1 Romney to Obama. And I live in blue OH (North of Columbus).
As far as OH goes, as Hamilton County goes so goes OH and the US. Hamilton votes Rep except in the last election. This year the polls say it is even but Obama gets 2k or less to rallys while Romney brings in 30,000+ to his around that area.
Because the stakes are so high and because I have seen the impact of the democrat practice of "vote early and vote often," it is hard not to be nervous about this election.
However, My head and my political gut says Romney wins this thing going away. If all things were equal it would be a landslide of historical proportions but it should still be a strong win on the level of Reagan v. Carter.
Here's why:
The fact that the stakes are so high not only has the Republican base energized to level not seen in a very long time but the independents, fiscal conservative/social libs, and all but the most hack-headed Democrats are all moving to Romney like the building is on fire and he is the only exit.
Meanwhile, Obama has the media, white house, Dem party, unions, Harry Reid, Bill Clinton, the race-baters, extortion politics, fake polls, Hollywood, Springstein, Osama, the Black and Latino vote and he can't surge let alone gain momentum to take the lead no matter how far the numbers are fudged and stretched. He can't even maintain a hold on Saturday Night Live and David Letterman. This is looking more and more like many people that say they support Obama will either not show or be voting Romney.
Wednesday needs to be a national holiday to celebrate this long needed win by Romney.
