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Team outlook positives and negatives

by Qman · 10/28/2012

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Q
Qman
I just wanted to summarize some thoughts on the season.



Positives:



We will be able to score the ball as long as Davies is healthy. Davies has a complete offensive game that will be the focus of double teams and opposing game plans. When they loaded up on Davies, we counter with Haws, Carlino and the rest of our outside shooting to bury teams.



We have enough depth at the guards and wings to run many teams off the court.



Negatives:

While the defensive effort has been solid we don't have the defensive presences of Abouo(lockdown perimeter guy) or Hartsock(shotblocker). Also Abouo and Hartsock were our best rebounders.



IMO Carlino, Winder and Delgado have the physical tools to become good perimeter defenders if they chose to focus on that.



So are we going to be able to slow down opposing guards or protect the paint?



Will we get enough rebounds to fuel our fastbreak offense?



And finally crunch time scoring.



Davies is the obvious place to turn but big men are difficult to post in crunch time. Defenses will probably choose to deny Davies the ball and drift away from some of our shooters. Davies has shown an improved jumper and faceup game, so giving the him the ball at 18 ft and clearing out might work.



IMO Haws is a good option but I don't see him getting good shots against top quality defenders one on one.



Carlino would be a complete gamble.





All in all we have a lot of question marks in this season but scoring the ball can win you a bunch of games.
G
Gunk
Something I think we forget too often is Davies lead the WCC in scoring last season. He'll be even better this season. With a threat down low like Davies, it opens things up for us on the perimeter; however, Davies will have to be okay with passing it back out. Last year he forced things a bit too much. He keeps his head up and our shooters hit their shots and teams will be in trouble.



I'm not too worried about shot blocking. Austin is a decent shot blocker and has the length to be disruptive. I am more worried about losing Abouo on the perimeter and boards. In general, I'm worried about our rebounding this season. Davies will get blocked out; they'll be a guy on him at all times. So, Austin, Harward, Sharp, and Haws are going to have to crash the boards like there is no tomorrow.



Positives: Shooting, uptempo, team speed, passing and Davies.



Negatives: Rebounding, 3-point shooting still a question mark, perimeter defense.



Generally, though, I think we'll surprise some people this season. Despite what Mars and Hawkwing think, I believe we go dancing.
G
Guest
To be fair to SpiffCoug, he wasn't at the podcast. That was Mars and me.
G
Gunk
hawkwing wrote:
To be fair to SpiffCoug, he wasn't at the podcast. That was Mars and me.


Oh ya...it was Mars. I guess life can be fair.



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Q
Qman
My hope for offensive rebounding is Josh Sharp and Austin. I don't see Ambrosino as an effect rebounder. Haws will get a couple but nothing like Abouo.



I think we are going to be very good from the 3 pt line this year.



Haws, Delgado and Carlino look like knockdown 3 pt shooters. Zylstra, Cusick and Winder are real 3 pt threats.



Overall I agree with Gunk. I am optimistic that we will be dancing come March.
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Q
Qman
Oh and the most important one- Coach Rose is a very good coach.
C
Cougs_Rule
Qman wrote:
Oh and the most important one- Coach Rose is a very good coach.


This. He will find the right rotation and combos. And he will get after the team for boards.
M
Mars
Gunk wrote:
To be fair to SpiffCoug, he wasn't at the podcast. That was Mars and me.
Oh ya...it was Mars. I guess life can be fair.

Ungoy and I flipped a coin before the podcast. He won, so he got to pick BYU to the NCAA tourny. I lost, so I had to say NIT. It's all a ruse, I tells ya!



*This post brought to you by the Jan Jorgensen school of radio.*
S
skpope
I love the combo of a really good low post threat and good 3 point shooters. It appears that our 3 point shooting should be better this year and i am expecting Davies to have the year I have been anticipating since he was a Freshman. I think he will be a 1st round draft pick in the NBA draft, and maybe even a lottery pick. He has the athleticism that translates to the NBA game. Haws' and Caralino's talent excites me. They both can shoot, Caralino can drive and create his own shot, and Haws should be very effective coming off if screens. We will have to see where everybody fits in, and how the new guys play. I am really excited about the future of BYU basketball.



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M
mizzoucoug
skpope wrote:
I love the combo of a really good low post threat and good 3 point shooters. It appears that our 3 point shooting should be better this year and i am expecting Davies to have the year I have been anticipating since he was a Freshman. I think he will be a 1st round draft pick in the NBA draft, and maybe even a lottery pick. He has the athleticism that translates to the NBA game. Haws' and Caralino's talent excites me. They both can shoot, Caralino can drive and create his own shot, and Haws should be very effective coming off if screens. We will have to see where everybody fits in, and how the new guys play. I am really excited about the future of BYU basketball.



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I haven't had the chance to see a game yet this year, but is Davies really THAT much improved? This is hard to believe and lottery pick projections are laughable. I love Davies, but he is too slow, can't shoot outside, and has weak hops (Omer's fault? :)) for that kind of consideration. Awesome college player he is, but that's a far as this goes.
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S
Schmoe
Davies certainly hasn't looked slow, his outside shot looks better, and he doesn't seem to be forcing things as much (of course, this analysis comes from two exhibition games vs Bodiddly Tech and Whatsamatta U).



Also, there are guys at the next level who are Davies' size and play the 3; he'd need to put on weight to play the 4, and he'd still be undersized.
C
Cougarbib
mizzoucoug wrote:
I love the combo of a really good low post threat and good 3 point shooters. It appears that our 3 point shooting should be better this year and i am expecting Davies to have the year I have been anticipating since he was a Freshman. I think he will be a 1st round draft pick in the NBA draft, and maybe even a lottery pick. He has the athleticism that translates to the NBA game. Haws' and Caralino's talent excites me. They both can shoot, Caralino can drive and create his own shot, and Haws should be very effective coming off if screens. We will have to see where everybody fits in, and how the new guys play. I am really excited about the future of BYU basketball.



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I haven't had the chance to see a game yet this year, but is Davies really THAT much improved? This is hard to believe and lottery pick projections are laughable. I love Davies, but he is too slow, can't shoot outside, and has weak hops (Omer's fault? :)) for that kind of consideration. Awesome college player he is, but that's a far as this goes.


First. These are scrimmage games. Having said that, Davies looked much improved in the first one, but missed a lot of easy shots in the 2nd one. You can tell he has added some moves and worked to improve. Lottery Pick - IMHO, no way and not even close. If he was 6' 11" maybe - a bug man is hard to find.



Caralino, AKA Carlino is over-hyped. Cleveland was on his case re expectations that he thought Carlino would show improved decision making this year - and so far he has not. Not exactly a sharp-shooter IMHO, and a ball hog. Coach Rose indicated concerns about some players forgetting their roles and having their own agenda while fighting for PT. I think Carlino is one player he was referring to.



Cleveland predicted this to be a Top 25 team. I am not seeing it yet, but maybe when Rose settles the actual starters into their roles and appropriate minutes, combinations, and situations - they will play more like a team.



We do not have a center. Many teams do not. THIS may keep us out of Top 25. Our cupcake schedule may allow a decent win total and bubble consideration.



I reserve the right to upgrade this projection after we play a good team or two. Not an elite opponent. Just a good one. Then I can tell.



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Q
Qman
After the Findlay game I am wondering we have any slashers. We have a bunch of 3pt shooters but sometimes you need to be able to take the ball to hole.



No shotblocking but we have charge takers.
B
BYULV
I think the effect of Haws on the team is being greatly underestimated. He was a true multi-dimensional player who hurts opponents in a lot of ways. His midrange shot alone will give teams problems and open up other open spots for the rest of he team, he shot 49.8% overall as a freshman - incredible as a guard.



Add to that his 3, which isn't his best weapon, but 37% as a freshman is really good. And, he is smart about taking threes, doesnt just launch threes at will.



Rebounding, Someone mentioned he wasn't as effective as abouo or Hartsock? Abouo was a beast, avg 6.2/game (27 mins/gm) -as a guard even better. Hartsock was good, 5/gm (31 mins/gm), but Haws averaged 4.2/gm (26 mins/gm) - as a freshman. Haws will be one of our top 3-4 rebounders this year as well.



Free throws: Haws gets to the line. He can drive to the basket and is better than he is given credit. He shot 120 FTs as a Freshman, second only to Fredette (missed only 10). nearly 92%!



Haws is going to give plenty of teams headaches this year and is a perfect compliment to Davies.
G
Gunk
Qman wrote:
After the Findlay game I am wondering we have any slashers. We have a bunch of 3pt shooters but sometimes you need to be able to take the ball to hole.



No shotblocking but we have charge takers.

Traditionally, BYU doesn't have a slasher.



Jimmer was the exception as was Hansen and Lyday.



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I
IowaCougar
Gunk wrote:
After the Findlay game I am wondering we have any slashers. We have a bunch of 3pt shooters but sometimes you need to be able to take the ball to hole.



No shotblocking but we have charge takers.

Traditionally, BYU doesn't have a slasher.



Jimmer was the exception as was Hansen and Lyday.



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Based on the last game - Carlino wants to be a slasher, but it just shows up as "ball-hog". He needs to improve his decision-making. If he can think a little more "team" and a little less "me", he'll be an asset.



Haws will be a real asset. He looks like he's ready to make believers out of us all.
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