BYU vs Opponent's Averages

I've taken the BYU game out of our opponents averages and looked at how BYU's offense and defense have performed compared to those averages. Lines in blue mean BYU was better than average, red means below average.



Washington St:

BYU held WSU 14 points below their scoring average.

BYU held WSU 107 yards below their total yards average.

BYU held WSU 46 yards below their rushing yards average.

BYU held WSU 19 points below their PER average.

BYU scored 4 points more than WSU's scoring defense.

BYU gained 24 more yards than WSU's total defense.

BYU gained 35 fewer yards than WSU's rushing defense.

BYU was 42 points above WSU's PER defense.



Weber St:

BYU held WSU 6 points below their scoring average.

BYU held WSU 94 yards below their total yards average.

BYU held WSU 13 yards below their rushing yards average.

BYU held WSU 21 points below their PER average.

BYU scored 13 points more than WSU's scoring defense.

BYU gained 121 more yards than WSU's total defense.

BYU gained 42 more yards than WSU's rushing defense.

BYU was 21 points below WSU's PER defense.



Utah:

BYU held Utah 9 points above their scoring average.

BYU held Utah 10 yards above their total yards average.

BYU held Utah 37 yards below their rushing yards average.

BYU held Utah 27 points above their PER average.

BYU scored 3 points more than Utah's scoring defense.

BYU gained 60 more yards than Utah's total defense.

BYU gained 20 more yards than Utah's rushing defense.

BYU was 37 points below Utah's PER defense.



Boise St:

BYU held Boise St 18 points below their scoring average.

BYU held Boise St 76 yards below their total yards average.

BYU held Boise St 26 yards below their rushing yards average.

BYU held Boise St 34 points below their PER average.

BYU scored 7 points fewer than Boise St's scoring defense.

BYU gained 88 fewer than Boise St's total defense.

BYU gained 1 more yards than Boise St's rushing defense.

BYU was 64 points below Boise St's PER defense.



Utah St:

BYU held USU 26 points below their scoring average.

BYU held USU 160 yards below their total yards average.

BYU held USU 133 yards below their rushing yards average.

BYU held USU 64 points below their PER average.

BYU scored 7 points fewer than USU's scoring defense.

BYU gained 101 more yards than USU's total defense.

BYU gained 57 more yards than USU's rushing defense.

BYU was 12 points above USU's PER defense.



Hawaii:

BYU held Hawaii 21 points below their scoring average.

BYU held Hawaii 114 yards below their total yards average.

BYU held Hawaii 59 yards below their rushing yards average.

BYU held Hawaii 43 points below their PER average.

BYU scored 13 points more than Hawaii's scoring defense.

BYU gained 200 more yards than Hawaii's total defense.

BYU gained 228 more yards than Hawaii's rushing defense.

BYU was 21 points below Hawaii's PER defense.



Oregon St:

BYU held OS 23 points above their scoring average.

BYU held OS 106 yards above their total yards average.

BYU held OS 29 yards above their rushing yards average.

BYU held OS 44 points above their PER average.

BYU scored 12 points more than OS's scoring defense.

BYU gained 98 more yards than OS's total defense.

BYU gained 14 fewer yards than OS's rushing defense.

BYU was 14 points below OS's PER defense.



Notre Dame:

BYU held ND 6 points below their scoring average.

BYU held ND 57 yards above their total yards average.

BYU held ND 115 yards above their rushing yards average.

BYU held ND 15 points below their PER average.

BYU scored 7 points more than ND's scoring defense.

BYU gained 3 fewer yards than ND's total defense.

BYU gained 31 fewer yards than ND's rushing defense.

BYU was 18 points above ND's PER defense.



All tolled:

BYU has held opposing offenses below their scoring average in six of eight games.

BYU has held opposing offenses below their total yards average in five of eight games.

BYU has held opposing offenses below their rushing average in six of eight games.

BYU has held opposing offenses below their PER average in six of eight games.

BYU has been above opposing defensive scoring averages in six of eight games.

BYU has been above opposing defensive total yards averages in six of eight games.

BYU has been above opposing defensive rushing averages in five of eight games.

BYU has been above opposing defensive PER averages in three of eight games.

Love these stats thanks.



One question. Seems like the "All Tolled" category would indicate a better Win-Loss record than we have currently.

I wonder if turnover margin ought to be included because that would be the great equalizer.

Yeah, I was noticing that today too. It does look like 1) we're doing better to a certain extent than the perception of how we're doing and 2) we should have a better record. If we're holding our opponents below their averages and we're surpassing thier averages on our end, we should be better than a .500 team.

I thought it was Charles Barkley who said that.



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Spiff, this is awesome. Thanks!

The amount of red is a great predictor for our losses--you can see them clearly.



I think with this data you could make the argument that the defense lost us the Utah and Oregon State games more than the offense, and that the offense lost the Boise State game more than the defense. Notre dame was a team effort--both sides played well, but not quite well enough.



This, of course, ignores a key category: points scored (and yards accumulated) by the DEFENSE--which was the X factor in both the Utah and Boise State games. Even without that, though, Spiff's numbers indicate that we didn't "deserve" to win either of those games--we weren't the better team, vis-a-vis comparing to how the opponent usually does.



But I'm less certain in these conclusions because these trends don't control for how good a team is. One way to try to get at that (though still not perfect) might be to compar BYU's numbers in these categories with the average of the opponent when the opponent won and when the opponent lost. That would at least tell us if we're doing better than the average winners and losers do against these teams.



And the reason that the overall categories are what they are is because we've tended to run up the score in the wins and lose close in the losses. Average those together gets you wins, albeit by a smaller margin.



Overall, I think these trends support Bronco's assertion that the team is inching forward.

TulaneVandyRiceCoug wrote:
I thought it was Charles Barkley who said that.

You win this round... :angry:



;)

SpiffCoug wrote:
Yeah, I was noticing that today too. It does look like 1) we're doing better to a certain extent than the perception of how we're doing and 2) we should have a better record. If we're holding our opponents below their averages and we're surpassing thier averages on our end, we should be better than a .500 team.

It seems that turnovers would be built into the PER offense and defense numbers? Just askin. Turnovers made and gotten is a huge disparity for two reasons. We give up too many turnovers and we create too few. Both are big issues.



Special Teams is another big issue. Our kicking game is terrible. Our kick-off returner brings them out too often and comes up short of the 25, too.



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The other point, is that 3 of our losses were by 1-3 points.



We went for two, partly due to valid concerns about our kicker missing extra points. BSU wins by 1.

We kicked a makeable FG to Tie - CLANK - Utah wins by 3.

We missed a makeable FG during the game - ND wins by 3.



Even OSU was close until two fluke tipped passes broke the dam.



If BYU swapped all of its home and away games this year - we would likely have 3 more wins and be Top 15.



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