Ending the Riley Nelson is a "good QB" debate

I'm tired of this debate. It has gone on for 3 years now.



I don't want to hear another quarterback mentioned in this thread. This is RN only. I have taken his numbers while starting against top 100 defenses over the last 3 years and calculated his PER as a quarterback.



The results against top 100 ranked defenses?



Read on.



Here is the data: Riley has started against 8 defenses ranked in the top 100 (Washington, Air Force, FSU, Oregon St., TCU, Tulsa, Utah, and BSU)



If you just take his PERs and average them you get a PER of 88.75



If you painstakingly extrapolate all of the data game from game, and add up all the numbers, you get a PER of 108.72.



The win loss record? 5 losses and 3 wins.



Riley is not a good quarterback versus any team that has a top 100 defense or better. We have 3 years' worth of data now. I'd like to see what responses you have, and please remember to not bring up any other quarterbacks in this. This is a "Riley Nelson only" thread. This is why I expect that he won't do much over the rest of this year, until we get to November, if he even makes it that far.



He hasn't ever done anything to show that he has what it takes against even average teams, but I would love to see something different, although I really doubt it will happen at this point.

I remember Riley playing pretty well against two of those teams.



Washington 11-17, 131, 2 TD

Oregon State 17-27, 217, 3 TD, 1 Int.



I know it is not popular to defend Nelson's play against TCU, but he did put points on the board and moved the ball pretty well. I find it hard to fault him for the loss.

Y12 wrote:
I remember Riley playing pretty well against two of those teams.



Washington 11-17, 131, 2 TD

Oregon State 17-27, 217, 3 TD, 1 Int.



I know it is not popular to defend Nelson's play against TCU, but he did put points on the board and moved the ball pretty well. I find it hard to fault him for the loss.

without 28 points given up by special teams BYU wins TCU. Riley was the only reason we were in that game. We won the Tulsa game on a play called at the line of scrimmage by Riley, I don't give a rats a$$ what the rest of his stats were in that game, we won. Riley played exactly 2 series in the FSU game with a broken hand, that game shouldn't even be in this debate, take his per from that one out. If you are going to give Max Hall credit for beating utah in 09 after having a horrible game you can't bag on Riley for beating Tulsa after having a bad game. The double standard on this board against Riley is ridiculous.

Top 100 what? defense? Passing? Rushing? Total? Passing Efficiency?

Was Max Hall a good QB in 2008? That was his Jr season. Here are his stats.



.............C-Att-Int Yards Y/A Lng TD PER

Max Hall 330-477-14 3957 8.3 76 35 157.21





Here are Riley's stats for his Jr year last year:



.................C-Att-Int Yards Y/A Lng TD PER

Riley Nelson 116-202-7 1717 8.5 57 19 152.93



Pretty comparable if you ask me.

How did max hall do against top defenses, mind you I don't know what these defenses were ranked in 08 but I am assuming that they were good defenses.



New Mexico:



C-Att-Int Yards Y/A Lng TD Sack Effic

Max Hall 22-34-0 258 7.6 58 3 0 157.56



Was Rocky Long still coaching NM, I can't remember.



TCU:



C-Att-Int Yards Y/A Lng TD Sack Effic

Max Hall 22-42-2 274 6.5 49 0 6 97.66



Air Force:



C-Att-Int Yards Y/A Lng TD Sack Effic

Max Hall 28-37-1 354 9.6 45 2 3 168.48



utah:



C-Att-Int Yards Y/A Lng TD Sack Effic

Max Hall 21-41-5 205 5.0 30 0 0 68.83



Arizona:



C-Att-Int Yards Y/A Lng TD Sack Effic

Max Hall 30-46-1 328 7.1 36 1 2 127.94

You said, "lets not bring any other QB's into this debate". The bottom line is, you have to bring other qb's into any debate on whether a qb is any good or not. You have to compare him to other qb's to decide whether his performances are comparable to other guys that either played well or badly. Max hall was one of BYU's best, he won more games than any other and Riley Nelson's jr year stats are comparable to his. Riley is a good qb, no matter what you haters want to believe. ALL qb's struggle against good defenses because that is why good defenses are good.

Riley is better than Jake Heaps!! :crazy: Sorry I had to after your introduction.



but seriously. rilye is a walking turnover. what makes him good is also what makes him a turnover machine. it is why he beats crappy teams and has no signature victory.

frdbtr wrote:
You said, "lets not bring any other QB's into this debate". The bottom line is, you have to bring other qb's into any debate on whether a qb is any good or not. You have to compare him to other qb's to decide whether his performances are comparable to other guys that either played well or badly. Max hall was one of BYU's best, he won more games than any other and Riley Nelson's jr year stats are comparable to his. Riley is a good qb, no matter what you haters want to believe. ALL qb's struggle against good defenses because that is why good defenses are good.

To even think about comparing hall to riley is RIDICULOUS and shows you are losing this debate.

jonnylingo wrote:
Riley is better than Jake Heaps!! :crazy: Sorry I had to after your introduction.



but seriously. rilye is a walking turnover. what makes him good is also what makes him a turnover machine. it is why he beats crappy teams and has no signature victory.

Exactly! His signature victory was against a WAC team - USU when he took over for Heaps (sorry Blue...I had to mention Heaps). :D

Not allowing comparisons makes your argument weak. Riley would be starting at most NCAA programs, including WSU, BSU, Utah if he were on their teams.



How do you say someone is good or bad without a standard to compare them against. Let us know who you felt was a good QB and we'll see how Riley matches up.



jonny, Detmer was also a turnover machine at times. And signature win is subjective (as cougarbib has pointed out numerous times with his asterisk debates).



Blueisbetter, I know you have everything seperated into black and white in your brain somehow, but this thread isn't going to convert people into thinking Riley is a poor QB. I personally think he's still the best BYU has at the moment and gives BYU the best chance to win, therefore he's a good QB in my mind. I'm off to make this whole debate a lot easier. :)

jonnylingo wrote:

You said, "lets not bring any other QB's into this debate". The bottom line is, you have to bring other qb's into any debate on whether a qb is any good or not. You have to compare him to other qb's to decide whether his performances are comparable to other guys that either played well or badly. Max hall was one of BYU's best, he won more games than any other and Riley Nelson's jr year stats are comparable to his. Riley is a good qb, no matter what you haters want to believe. ALL qb's struggle against good defenses because that is why good defenses are good.

To even think about comparing hall to riley is RIDICULOUS and shows you are losing this debate.

Really? Show me how. Show me where my numbers are wrong.

Once again, people on this board are just making up stuff. HERE are the facts, stats and numbers.



Since I don't know the OP is actually tabulating, I'll put it ALL out there. These stats were taken from the NCAA website for stats.



In 2010, I am counting TWO games played for Riley. He only threw four passes against Florida St, so I'm discounting that game. He played against Washington and Air Force. BYU finished 1-1 in those two games.



In 2010, Washington finished #56 in Defensive PER, #27 in Passing D and #70 in Total D.

On the season, against Washington teams were: 216-369 for 2527 yards with 15 TDs 12 INTs 126.40 PER. Riley was 11-17 for 131 yards 2 TD 0 INT 168.26 PER. He was very much above average.



Air Force finished #10 in Defensive PER, #2 in Passing D and #37 in Total D. On the season, against Air Force teams were: 176-321 for 1921 yards with 10 TDs 12 INTs 107.90 PER. Riley was 8-19 for 73 yards 0 TD 0 INT 74.38 PER. He was very much below average.



On the 2010 season, the two teams he played were 392-680 for 4448 yards 25 TD 24 INT 117.67 PER. Riley was 19-36 for 204 yards 2 TD 0 INT 118.71 PER. He was about average.



In 2011, I'm counting six games for Riley. I'm not counting Utah, or UCF where he threw a combined seven passes (six of which came at the end of a very one-sided game). I'm also not counting the Idaho St game which was an FCS team. Nor am I counting Idaho which, even though was a top 100 (#99) Defensive PER team, it was #111 in Passing D and #101 in Total D. The games I am counting are: Utah St, San Jose St, Oregon St, TCU, Hawaii & Tulsa.



BYU was 5-1 in those games. The average Defensive PER, Passing D and Total D rankings of those teams was #74, #73 and #69 respectively. (I'm not sure what to do with Tulsa, as they finished #57 in DefPER, but #117 in Passing D.)



Utah St finished #48 in Defensive PER, #76 in Passing D and #50 in Total D. On the season, against Utah St teams were: 287-474 for 3100 yards with 17 TDs 4 INTs 125.63 PER. Riley was 10-14 for 144 yards 2 TD 0 INT 204.97 PER. He was very much above average.



San Jose St finished #89 in Defensive PER, #54 in Passing D and #93 in Total D. On the season, against San Jose St teams were: 210-340 for 2656 yards with 19 TDs 13 INTs 138.18 PER. Riley was 14-24 for 219 yards 3 TD 2 INT 159.57 PER. He was above average.



Oregon St finished #104 in Defensive PER, #46 in Passing D and #84 in Total D. On the season, against Oregon St teams were: 223-348 for 2573 yards with 28 TDs 11 INTs 146.42 PER. Riley was 17-27 for 217 yards 3 TD 1 INT 159.73 PER. He was above average.



TCU finished #65 in Defensive PER, #60 in Passing D and #32 in Total D. On the season, against TCU teams were: 234-409 for 2907 yards with 23 TDs 10 INTs 130.58 PER. Riley was 15-29 for 215 yards 1 TD 2 INT 111.59. He was below average.



Hawaii finished #82 in Defensive PER, #85 in Passing D and #66 in Total D. On the season, against Hawaii teams were: 247-424 for 3184 yards with 28 TDs 14 INTs 136.52 PER. Riley was 25-37 for 363 yards 3 TD 0 INT 176.74 PER. He was very much above average.



Tulsa finished #57 in Defensive PER, #117 in Passing D and #87 in Total D. On the season, against Tulsa teams were: 307-516 for 3722 yards with 25 TDs 18 INTs 129.10 PER. Riley was 17-40 for 250 yards 3 TD 2 INT 109.75. He was below average.



All together, opposing teams were 1508-2511 for 18,142 yards 140 TD 70 INT 133.57 PER. Riley was 98-171 for 1408 yards 15 TD 7 INT 147.24 PER.



In 2012, I'm counting three games for Riley. I'm discounting Weber St since it's an FBS team. BYU was 2-1 in those games.



Washington St is currently #67 in Defensive PER, #114 in Passing D and #100 in Total D. On the season, against Washington St teams are: 160-258 for 1823 yards with 12 TDs 9 INTs 129.74 PER. Riley was 25-36 for 285 yards 2 TD 0 INT 154.28 PER. He was very much above average.



Utah is currently #93 in Defensive PER, #69 in Passing D and #35 in Total D. On the season, against Utah teams are: 96-156 for 1176 yards with 10 TDs 2 INTs 143.45 PER. Riley was 17-35 for 206 yards 2 TD 1 INT 111.15 PER. He was very much below average.



Boise St is currently #9 in Defensive PER, #6 in Passing D and #127 in Total D. On the season, against Boise St teams are: 77-133 for 8774 yards with 1 TD 8 INTs 97.23 PER. Riley was 4-9 for 19 yards 0TD 3 INT -4.49. He was slightly below average. ;)



So far this season, teams are 333-547 for 3773 yards 23 TDs 19 INTs 125.75 PER. Riley is 46-80 for 510 yards 4 TDs 4 INTs 117.55 PER. Slightly below average.



So all together, I'm tracking 11 games for Riley against Top 100 Defenses (but I don't know if I need to excluding teams that are Top 100 in one category but no tin all three (Defensive PER, Passing D & Total D).



The average ranking of these teams is #61.8 Defensive PER, #59.6 Passing D, #61.9 Total D. Those team's combined Defensiver PER is 129.53. Riley's combined PER in those games is 135.38. BYU's record is 7-4.



Riley has been an average QB. He makes plays and gives BYU chances to win games. He met the standard in six of the 11 games - BYU won all six of those games. He was above average in six of those games.



Please stop making stuff up.

BroncoBot wrote:
Not allowing comparisons makes your argument weak. Riley would be starting at most NCAA programs, including WSU, BSU, Utah if he were on their teams.



How do you say someone is good or bad without a standard to compare them against. Let us know who you felt was a good QB and we'll see how Riley matches up.

jonny, Detmer was also a turnover machine at times. And signature win is subjective (as cougarbib has pointed out numerous times with his asterisk debates).



Blueisbetter, I know you have everything seperated into black and white in your brain somehow, but this thread isn't going to convert people into thinking Riley is a poor QB. I personally think he's still the best BYU has at the moment and gives BYU the best chance to win, therefore he's a good QB in my mind. I'm off to make this whole debate a lot easier. :)

That's why we have the 135 PER standard. Everyone gets judged by that standard.



The average Defensiver PER in 2010 was 128.01. In 2011 it was 134.99. In 2012 so far it is 132.14.

The truth is we have been dying for a great QB, but really haven't had one since Detmer. And even he came with some warts.



Sarkisian was very good, but benefitted from a great Defense in 96.



Feterick--average. Doman, good, not very good or great. He was blessed with Staley. Beck was very good in 2006, but we had to debate if he had "it," so not great.



Hall put up some exciting numbers and gave us some emotional victories. I would also say he was very good--and unlike former QBs got the benefit of playing with Bronco's very good defense and started more games (three years worth)--hence the most victories. Again, though, not great.



Average was about where I would put Riley. Like Feterick, he could get the job done against inferior opponents, but is never going to pull the Detmer against Miami routine. We haven't had someone like that since Detmer. QBs like that come along once in a generation. We have to be satisfied with Very Good QBs at BYU, which, coupled with Bronco's great defenses will lead to great things. Nelson is not Very Good or even good against good teams. He is average. That, without the turnovers, will lead to victory with our great defense. I support him and hope he does well, but there is no doubt that the QB spot has been a large concern since Hall left. You could just feel the void, and we are now living in it. There was a void between Bosco and Detmer, a void between Detmer and Sarkisian and a void between Sarkisian and Beck. It has been happening for some time, so we just need to be paitient and hope the coaches get it figured out in the future (and go back to the system that made QBs great).

Cougarfan87 wrote:
Beck was very good in 2006, but we had to debate if he had "it," so not great.

Beck had a rough go of it. He had a not great defense in 2005 and had to score a TON of points to win games (how do you score 50 in a game and still lose?) I'd be willing to bet that if you put Beck in as QB in 2012, BYU is undefeated and not one game is in question. People in 2005 (and now) act like football is a QB game where only one person (or coach) affects the outcome of the game. Beck had it all along, but the 2004-2005 teams did not have it.

You know when the Academy Awards are on TV, and you see all the stars in the audience? Did you know that if any of them get up to leave to go to the bathroom or to get a drink, they have people on stand by to fill their seats, so the TV viewing audience sees a full theater? They call them "place holders"



Riley Nelson is a "placeholder" QB for BYU.

Unfortunately, you will not ever be able to "end" the Riley Nelson debate. There will always be those that argue.

At this point, I think we should all be able to agree that Riley Nelson is not a good enough quarterback to play injured. If I got the equivalent of a negative PER at my job, I would be fired.

I don't care how big a heart he has. I don't care how competetive he is. If he is injured, he needs to become a cheerleader.

I'm sure there is someone out there that will even disagree with me on this.

So much for the end of the debate.

rblack wrote:

I'm sure there is someone out there that will even disagree with me on this.

So much for the end of the debate.

I seriously doubt it. I haven't seen anyone defend injured Riley as even an average QB. Would much rather see Kuresa out there than have Nelson repeat a UofU or BSU.

rblack wrote:

I'm sure there is someone out there that will even disagree with me on this.

So much for the end of the debate.

I seriously doubt it. I haven't seen anyone defend injured Riley as even an average QB. Would much rather see Kuresa out there than have Nelson repeat a UofU or BSU.