The difference in the game

Many years ago, I made reference to the one statistic that is most correlated with winning in the NFL. That is the one of the only stats on here that Uooozz beat us on. The yards per pass. Almost every other one, we beat them. But the score board doesn't show it.



Team Stat Comparison

BYU.....UTAH

1st Downs..........25 14

Passing 1st Downs........10 10

Rushing 1st Downs.....10 3

1st Downs from Penalties...5 1

3rd Down Efficiency.....6-17 4-16

4th Down Efficiency..... 2-2 1-2

Total Yards....... 312 245

Passing.......206 196

Comp-Att-Int.....17-37-1 18-27-0

Average per attempt....5.6 7.3

Average per completion...12.1 10.9

Rushing.......106 49

Rush Attempts.......42 35

Yards per attempt. . . . .2.5 1.4

Red Zone (Made-Att) 3-4 1-2

Penalties 12-75 10-112

Turnovers 6 2

Fumbles lost 1 0

Interceptions Thrown 1 0

Defensive / Special Teams TDs 0 1

Posession 27:54 32:06

Sacks 4-22 4-14

PAT Kicks 3-3 3-3

Field Goals 0-2 1-2



If Nelson had had that extra fraction of a second to get the last pass off, the story could have been different. But their D earned that.



We theoretically were the better team, but one missed shotgun snap, their D scores, that's the difference in the game.

With a completion on that last attempt of 34 yards, it becomes much close, as BYU would have averaged 6.9 ypa.

At the NFL level, I've often seen Passer Rating Differential cited as the key to winning. Apparently from 1940-2011, 40 of 71 NFL champions finished 1 or 2 in Passer Rating Differential for the season. It makes sense as the statistic incorporates several passing metrics as well as taking defense (Passer Rating Against) into account.



This game was ugly for BYU in terms of Passer Rating Differential. Utah's QB player a much more efficient game despite getting hammered in the pocket.



BYU: 17/37, 206 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT => 105.2 NCAA PER, 70.3 NFL PR

Utah: 18/27, 196 yd, 2 TD, 0 INT => 152.1 NCAA PER, 112.6 NFL PR



BYU was -46.9 in NCAA Passer Efficiency Rating and -42.3 in NFL Passer Rating. Based on that type of performance, BYU was really lucky to be in the game.

Yes -



Which is ironic. Everyone wants to give the D a pass on that loss. They were our best unit, but not without fault. They gave up a few huge plays and at critical times like with 3:30 left.



We're our YPC bad? Did our D allow U to overachieve?



What YPC did USU allow U?



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In case you're wondering, here's how the Utah-USU game looked:



Utah: 19/39, 229 yd, 2 TD, 0 INT => 115.0 NCAA, 84.2 NFL

USU: 22/32, 216 yd, 2 TD, 0 INT => 146.1 NCAA, 108.3 NFL



Utah's differential was -31.1 NCAA and -24.1 NFL