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Deep Shades of Blue NAILS it

by KingCoug · 9/18/2012

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K
KingCoug
Has BYU Hit Its Ceiling?

Brett Richins

September 17, 2012




There’s an elephant in the room.



BYU fans can see it. The media that covers BYU football can see it too, but they’re not saying anything.



Hard questions must be asked after yet another BYU meltdown on national television against its arch-rival Utah.



Has the current leadership taken this BYU program as far as it can? Have the Cougars reached a ceiling with this coaching staff?



As the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter late Saturday night, the Utes tried everything they could to hand the game to the Cougars.



But in the end, BYU was just too inept to take advantage. A botched punt, a blown coverage in the secondary on 4th-and-12 and an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the Utah crowd couldn’t even bail out a second straight deer-in-the-headlights performance by the BYU offense and breakdowns on special teams.



For the second year in a row, the Cougars offense appeared totally unprepared to play in this rivalry game. In fact, the start of the game of was astonishingly similar to last year’s 54-10 debacle in Provo, with BYU quarterback Riley Nelson losing the ball in the end zone on the Cougar’s first offensive snap. Only a facemask penalty prevented the Utes from scoring a safety on the play.



It was one of several bullets that BYU dodged in the first half, but couldn’t elude in the second. In the end, BYU doinked a 36-yard field goal off the upright that could have sent the game into overtime, a fitting end to a night of mistakes, miscues, and a horrendous display of ball security.



Meanwhile the Utes were playing with a Division II quarterback and were without star running back John White, the guy who was virtually the entire offense for Utah in 2011. They were also without their second best defender in strong safety Brian Blechen and missing their starting free safety as well. Yet the outcome was almost predictable, with Kyle Whittingham winning his third game in a row and his fourth in the last five games over Bronco Mendenhall.



There was absolutely no excuse for BYU losing to such a depleted Utah team on Saturday.



None.



Ask yourself: How many coaches in today’s world of college football would survive going 1-4 against an arch-rival? How can any BYU coaching staff defend going a combined 1-8 against Utah and TCU since 2008 and getting blown out in many of those eight losses?



Bronco Mendenhall and his staff have been able to hide behind the smoke and mirrors of double-digit wins in recent seasons. But any honest BYU supporter has to admit that wins against quality D-1 teams have been few and far between. The Cougars did defeat a rebuilding Oklahoma team by a point in 2009, but then followed that up by getting spanked by 26 at home by a Florida State team that would finish the year 7-6.



The truth is that the Cougars haven’t defeated a program of any consequence since November 28, 2009 when Andrew George scored his touchdown in overtime, giving BYU its last win over Utah. In the two years prior to the start of this season, BYU managed just two wins over teams that finished the year with winning records. And both of those wins (against Utah State and Tulsa in 2011) were squeaked out in the final 11 seconds of the game.



Through the last seven-plus seasons, BYU has lost most of the big games on its schedule, many of those in an embarrassing fashion. Some may point to a 5-2 bowl record as proof otherwise, but are bowl victories in mid-December over fifth-place teams from the PAC-12 and also-rans from Conference USA the height to which this program can and should aspire?



Bronco talks about winning national championships, but right now his team is only the third best in the state of Utah.



Enough with the talk, platitudes, and slogans from self-help books. It’s time to start winning some meaningful games. It’s time to stop talking in circles and making rookie coaching mistakes after eight years on the job. It’s time to start developing talent–particularly on the offensive side of the ball–and stop coaching like you’re at a military academy. A program that would routinely have a couple of dozen of alumni playing in the NFL in any given year, BYU currently has a grand total of seven players on NFL rosters. That’s right: seven.



It’s also time for Mendenhall to start coaching the entire team and not just the defense. It’s time to start holding an offensive line coach and offensive coordinator accountable for performances like the one we witnessed on Saturday. It’s time to start developing quarterbacks so that you don’t have five-star quarterbacks leaving the program and four-star QBs languishing on the bench while a gutty, gritty, slot receiver plays the position.



It also time to realize that you’re not going to defeat programs of equal or better talent with a staff that is putting in only part of the time required to get the job done. It’s not acceptable to have your opponents up toiling into the night to game-plan against you, while you and your coaches are at home watching the The Voice or America’s Got Talent. Being a college coach requires 16-hour days during the season; everyone entering the profession understands that. If coaches at BYU are unwilling to put in the time necessary to have the program compete at a higher level, then perhaps they should seek employment in another field.



Can anyone honestly say that Utah put better players on the field than BYU on Saturday? Did they last year? If the answer is no, one must conclude that the Utes are getting better coaching and are better prepared.



Bronco Mendenhall and his staff deserve tremendous credit and admiration for rescuing the BYU football program after Gary Crowton ran it aground. But this program is not currently progressing and it hasn’t really progressed for a few years now. The time has come to take a good, long, honest look at where this program actually is and ask some hard questions.



There is an elephant in the room and somebody needs to say so.



http://deepshadesofblue.com/has-byu-hit-its-ceiling/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
S
SpiffCoug
Here is Bronco's record against teams who won X amount of games in the year they played.

0 wins: 1-0

1 win: 3-0

2 wins: 8-0

3 wins: 8-0

4 wins: 11-1 (USU 2010)

5 wins: 6-1 (SDSU 2005)

6 wins: 8-1 (UCLA 2007)

7 wins: 5-4

8 wins: 8-2

9 wins: 6-3

10 wins: 1-5 (Utah 2009)

11 wins: 1-2 (TCU 2006)

12 wins: 1-2 (FCS UNI)

13 wins: 0-2



I need to verify my numbers, because I think I'm a win and a loss short in there. Regardless, Bronco has won a bunch of games against a bunch of good teams.
K
KingCoug
I keep track of this stuff too. Here's what I have for Bronco vs Opponent winning %.





1.000 - (0-2)

0.928 - (0-1)

0.923 - (0-1)

0.917 - (0-1)

0.846 - (1-2) - win here was against TCU in 2006 (Bronco's best quality win)

0.800 - (1-0) - win here was against D-II Northern Iowa

0.769 - (1-2) - win here was against Utah in 2009 in OT

0.750 - (1-2 - win here was against D-II Eastern Illinois

0.714 - (0-2)

0.692 - (5-1)

0.667 - (0-1)

0.615 - (8-3)

0.583 - (0-1)

0.545 - (1-0)

0.538 - (5-1)

0.500 - (2-1)

0.462 - (4-1)

0.462 - (4-1)

0.363 - (2-0)

0.333 - (8-1)

0.307 - (1-0)

0.250 - (8-0)

0.181 - (3-0)

0.167 - (3-0)

0.153 - (1-0)

0.083 - (3-0)

0.000 - (1-0)





Teams 0.700 or better seems to be the cutoff mark.



Bronco vs. Teams .700 or higher: 4-13 (2 wins against D-II teams)

Bronco vs. Teams below .700: 59-11
K
KingCoug
Or to put it another way, Bronco's best wins:





Won 31-17 over TCU (11-2) in 2006



Won 26-23 OT over Utah (10-3) in 2009



Won 31-6 over Air Force (9-4) in 2007



Won 42-17 over New Mexico (9-4) in 2007



Won 17-10 over Utah (9-4) in 2007



Won 24-21 over San Diego State (9-4) in 2007
G
Gunk
Not very impressive.



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K
KingCoug
Not counting this year, Bronco is 12-19 against ranked/BCS opponents. But only half of those wins have come against an opponent with a winning record.





Won 31-17 over TCU in 2006 (TCU went 11-2 was Top 25 that year)



Won 38-8 over Oregon in LV Bowl in 2006 (Oregon went 7-6 that year)



Won 20-17 over Arizona in 2007 (Arizona went 5-7 that year)



Won 17-16 over UCLA in 2007 (UCLA went 6-7 that year)



Won 28-27 over Washington in 2008 (Washington went 0-12 that year)



Won 59-0 over UCLA in 2008 (UCLA went 4-8 that year)



Won 14-13 over Oklahoma in 2009 (Oklahoma went 8-5 that year)



Won 26-23 over Utah in 2009 (Utah went 10-3 that year and Top 25)



Won 44-20 over Oregon State in LV Bowl in 2009 (Oregon State went 8-5 that year and Top 25)



Won 23-17 over Washington in 2010 (Washington went 7-6 that year)



Won 14-13 over Ole Miss in 2011 (Ole Miss went 2-10 that year)



Won 38-28 over Oregon State in 2011 (Oregon State went 3-9 that year)
M
mizzoucoug
Yes we have hit the ceiling and it happened 3 years ago. I'd like to think a better QB will get us there, but you can't count on that happening. We get to witness Boise on Thursday and a fine example of how you quickly reload.
G
Guest
I will not be satisfied until BYU beats a team that ends the year unbeaten.
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snoscythe
hawkwing wrote:
I will not be satisfied until BYU beats a team that ends the year unbeaten.


LOLZ.



That's what I love about these analyses--by definition, teams with really good records don't lose much, so no one has winning (or I would dare say better than .400) records against them--if you could pull out a .350 record against top teams over a decade, I would classify that as a top-5 program.



Against teams .750 or better, Bronco has a 4-10 record. It looks bad, but it's actually a much better than average performance. Look at it this way:



In those 14 games, the opponents have had an average win percentage of .833

Taking the inverse, their schedule had a .167 winning percentage against those teams.

Bronco's teams have a .286 winning percentage against the .833 teams--that's more than one absolute standard deviation above the mean.



Even if you want to control by removing the D-II teams, here are the results:

Win percentage: .842

Inverse: .158

BYU's: .167



So this argument that Bronco must not be good because he loses to teams that don't lose much doesn't add up as cleanly as its proponents would have you believe.
K
KingCoug
snoscythe wrote:




Against teams .750 or better, Bronco has a 4-10 record. It looks bad, but it's actually a much better than average performance.


More like 2-10 considering two of those wins were against D-II opponents.
S
snoscythe
KingCoug wrote:




Against teams .750 or better, Bronco has a 4-10 record. It looks bad, but it's actually a much better than average performance.


More like 2-10 considering two of those wins were against D-II opponents.


And then did you finish reading the post?
H
HoosierCougar
KingCoug wrote:
Has BYU Hit Its Ceiling?

Brett Richins

September 17, 2012




It’s also time for Mendenhall to start coaching the entire team and not just the defense. It’s time to start holding an offensive line coach and offensive coordinator accountable for performances like the one we witnessed on Saturday. It’s time to start developing quarterbacks so that you don’t have five-star quarterbacks leaving the program and four-star QBs languishing on the bench while a gutty, gritty, slot receiver plays the position.



http://deepshadesofblue.com/has-byu-hit-its-ceiling/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


First, I think Bronco identifies with Nelson. Both were shunned by BYU in favor of more talented players. Both showed the internal resolve and perseverance to right that situation (in their own minds, at least). Bronco beat BYU while playing at Oregon State. RN transferred to BYU and became the starter.



Second, Bronco has said on many occasions that he doesn't really know that much about offensive football, so he stays out of it. I always assumed it was part of his schtick, but Saturday night, I came to the realization that he may really not have a clue about a successful offensive performance. I believe he watched what unfolded in the game and thought "Wow! Utah's front 7 are executing at a very high level!" I don't believe he took the poor offensive performance in to consideration.



This is a glaring weakness. And if Bronco is really as oblivious to offense as he claims, what gives him the confidence to choose an offensive coaching staff? Focus on execution? We clearly aren't there yet. Even if our playbook has only 10 plays that we are going to execute with precision, we haven't done that in the Bronco era.



BTW, when other coaches are reviewing film, they'll come to the conclusion that they can put 2 guys on Hoffman, 2 guys on Friel and the rest in the box without threat of getting beat. OK, that part is TIC, but the rest is my honest opinion.



That said, if not Bronco, who? I know he's not reading the boards, but does he listen to his assistants? Do they have a voice? Can they say, "we aren't doing enough"? and have him listen to what more they can do?
J
jacksonman
This article is right on. Add to it that Bronco doesn't like the fans, shows no emotion on the field, acts more like a general authority than a head football coach, dresses like he is doing yard work, and seems un-involved with the offense. He also doesn't do a good job at developing talent.



The problem is, I don't know who we would replace him with. I want it to work with him but there needs to be some changes made!
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Cougarbib
Sorry - this BS lost me right at the part about the opening snap getting away from Riley.



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K
KingCoug
jacksonman wrote:
This article is right on. Add to it that Bronco doesn't like the fans, shows no emotion on the field, acts more like a general authority than a head football coach, dresses like he is doing yard work, and seems un-involved with the offense. He also doesn't do a good job at developing talent.



The problem is, I don't know who we would replace him with. I want it to work with him but there needs to be some changes made!


I really couldn't care less that he doesn't like the fans, shows no emotion on the field, acts like a general authority, or dresses like he's doing yard work, because I don't think these things directly effects him as a coach.



There are plenty of things to gripe about Bronco but what you listed above are frivolous non-issues.


Cougarbib wrote:
Sorry - this BS lost me right at the part about the opening snap getting away from Riley.


Are you talking about the article itself? I sure hope not.
D
DarthMagnus
I don't think many people will disagree with the basic premise of the article. BYU needs to change something or it will continue getting the same results. It's not rocket science.



The question is what to change. Hate him all you want, but isn't likely you're going to round up a better coach than Bronco, who is willing to coach at BYU given the baggage that comes with it (pay-grade, honor code, culture, etc.) Changes could certainly be made to coordinators and position coaches with positive results, but even then, I think the BYU's problem might run deeper.



Frankly, I don't see BYU having elite success while playing conventional football. The last time BYU was having elite, national success, they accomplished it on the back of solid defense and throwing the ball what was then an absurd number of times. Defenses didn't know how to defend it consistently as BYU was so far ahead of the curve, and that compensated for BYU's weaknesses in recruiting, coaching etc. Eventually, however, BYU became the model most teams adopted. Today, almost everybody spreads the field on pass plays and airs it out 25+ times a game. Consequently, defenses have adjusted, and BYU's unique advantage has worn off.



If BYU wants that level of success again, and I'm not talking about hovering around the top 25, I'm talking BCS/national championship level success, they are going to have to embrace the same kind of risks Lavell took when he decided against all the strategy of the time to throw the football like crazy.



There are options. Constant, nitro-paced offense, No-punt football, etc. I'm not familiar with everything out there, and I'm not sure which one would work for BYU, but I am aware enough to know that statistics definitively show that teams aren't maximizing their potential when it comes to strategy. And I think that is where BYU is going to have to go if they want to be back in the echelons of elite national success.
B
Brayden Green
No punt football? LOL. I can't see Bronco swallowing that bitter pill. haha.



(not saying it isn't a great idea... just saying that you would have to pry the punt from Broncos cold dead hands.)
R
rblack
KingCoug wrote:
here is a different opinion........ One I tend to agree with...

http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2012/9/17/3349262/no-byu-has-not-hit-its-ceiling-but-byu-has-reached-cruising-altitude" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


The problem with that article is much of it is based on what still could be. And what could be is nothing but future speculation.

The problem is the original article apparently reflects a viewpoint that you agree with, while the second article apparently reflects a viewpoint that you disagree with. Both articles are based on the assumption that future results will reflect their assessment of the situation.
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