RER and other statistical observations

This will likely be my only post today. I'm simply don't want to get into any arguments today. I'm not sure what to think about a variety of topics right now (coaching changes, player changes, etc). So with that said, here are the weekly Receiver Efficiency Ratings, and some other statistical, and non-statistical, observations following the Utah loss.



Player, Utah RER (Season RER):

Hoffman: 176.18 (220.02)

Friel: 170.95 (212.29)

Falslev: 125.20 (94.33)

Wilson: 87.80 (181.47)

Alisa: 71.00 (118.33)

Apo: 0.00 (66.04)



- I've added position groups to my RERs, here's how each position group did:

WRs: 128.95 (150.10)

TEs: 154.32 (186.74)

RBs: 71.00 (97.47)



- Riley's PER was at an unacceptable level for any quarterback at BYU, let alone a returning senior starter. His PER was 111.15. He was 125.75 at the half and 93.28 in 2nd half. Production at this level isn't good enough.



- This was the SIXTH straight Utah game for BYU with a PER well below the standard of 135. In fact, BYU has only reached the standard THREE times since Kyle Whittingham became the Utes defensive coordinator in 1995. BYU had a 169.07 in 2006 (a 33-31 win), a 141.92 in 2000 (a 34-27 win), and a 149.51 in 1998 (a 26-24 win).



- BYU's PER in this game since Bronco took over is 110.93 (for a comparison it's 146.07 in all non-Utah games). Our last six PERs have been: 111.15, 107.34, 114.74, 93.30, 68.83, and 91.70.



- Utah's PER was 152.09. It was their fourth game in the series above the standard (with a fifth game at 131.21).



- BYU converted just 35.3% on third down - also the sixth straight Utah game at or under 40%. It's 51.9% in all non-Utah games.



- QBs make their money (in the hypothetical sense in college) on third down and keeping drives alive. Riley was an abysmal 3 of 10 for 25 yards and an INT on third down for a 31.00 PER. No wonder our conversion rate was so low.



- BYU had two turnovers. Our third straight multiple turnover games in the series (and fifth in the last eight). BYU has 22 turnovers in these eight games (2.8 per game) compared to 140 in the other 85 (1.6 per game).



- BYU had 12 penalties. The most in any game under Bronco against Utah.



- For the second straigth Utah game, BYU had zero points off turnovers. BYU has only scored 13 points off Utah turnovers since 2005.



- Utah scored 10 points off turnovers to bring their total to 90.



- BYU's blue zone offense was very effective once again. They were 2-2 for 11 yards and 2 TDs (476.20 PER) and had 6 rushes for 22 yards with a TD. The last two games, BYU is 4-4 for 31 yards and 3 TDs (412.60 PER). On the season BYU is 7-13 for 76 yards and 5 TDs (229.88 PER).



- Utah had just 2 plays of 20 or more yards - their lowest since 2008.



- BYU had four sacks, the most under Bronco in the series.



- Utah gave BYU five first downs by penalty - the most by any opponent since TCU in 2008.



Non-Statistical Observations

- Bronco has shown no ability to effectively prepare his team for this game. His teams are seemingly more undisciplined, turnover prone and non-assignment sound in this game than any other game. The fact that this is recurring problem is an extremely poor reflection on his ability to manage his team in this game.



- After effectively running the wildcat with Taysom Hill in the first two games, Brandon Doman used it only once (for 8 yards - BYU's 4th longest run).



- I really question the game plan. The Cougars threw nothing at Utah that they hadn't already run. In fact, I haven't seen anything new against Utah since 2008 (when Harvey or Collie ran the wildcat). BYU continues to trot out the exact same plays they run every week. And that includes offense and defense.



- I was highly disappointed in Riley. Not only did he fail to produce efficiently in the passing game, he failed to take advantage of what the defense was giving. Same for Doman. Running to edges, I thought, gave us our most productive runs. But we seldom did this. Attacking their backup safeties in the passing game was non-existent. The gameplan was anemic and produced anemic results.



- Once again our coaches clock management cost BYU. We continued to waste timeouts with play calls getting to the huddle, with late substitutions, with the team seemingly unaware of when the play clock starts following a timeout, etc.



- BYU actually moved the ball somewhat effectively in the 4th quarter. They ran 24 plays for 160 yards (6.7 ypp) and two TDs (compared to 54 plays for 209 yards 3.9 ypp), and not wasting that timeout could have helped BYU later.



- For years now, BYU offensive coaches have seemingly shown reluctance to go with what is working and instead stick with what isn't. I think BYU needs to transition to a more power running team. Between Michael Alisa and Jamaal Williams, the Cougars seemed to have a good 1-2 punch in the running game. BYU was at it's best when these two were involved.



- The offensive line play was even worse than Riley Nelson's. I have officially sold my stock in Coach Weber. The same mistakes, by the same players, in the same situations are consistently made. They are not being corrected. A change should be made.



- BYU is a mentally weak team. They completely folded in the third quarter. They came out flat, unprepared and unready for their environment.



- Riley is the best leader BYU has had at QB in some time, but perhaps a little more grit and leadership earlier would help BYU not have to scratch and claw and rely on determination and guttiness to get back into games.



- I don't have all the answers, but I do know what we saw last night was unacceptable. That kind of QB production cannot be repeated. That kind of undisciplined play cannot be repeated. Except that it is being repeated, every year in this game. By continuing to see these mistakes year in and year out, the BYU football program is going to see fan enthusiasm continue to wane.

Great only post of the day. I also am not going to post anything for the time being. Probably not until I see the changes (if any) during the BSU game.



I'll only chime in that once again, Penalties and turnovers ultimately cost BYU the game. Those two aspects of football are usually inexcusable, and they were last night.

Spiff: You Da'Man!! There is an incredible amount of analysis in that post!



Thanks

Agree with every point! Great post! I can tell you are a true football fan who loves BYU football rather than a BYU supporter who therefore follows BYU football. You get it!

I have only 1 issue with the OP.



You quote data showing that Riley's disappointing PER in absence of any protection is one of the best vs Utah since Bronco took over - therefore since KW took over - and you are terribly disappointed in Riley.



Just imagine - then - what Jake Heaps, James Lark, T Hill, or Matt Barkley would do with pass protection so poor. Barkley threw 2 interceptions yesterday - and his supporting cast is pretty good.



How bad was the OL?



Boys vs Men - that bad

Overwhelmed

Outmanned

Jumpy and scared until the 4th Qtr



9 false starts - afraid of the onslaught - and we practice to not get hurt

Two absolutely horrible snaps - jumpy - you think

Low snaps - off to the side - all night - making Nelson take his eyes off the defense to go down and get the snap



That is what I saw



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The standard is the standard. Jake Heaps didn't get excuses for his abysmal PERs (receivers dropping passes, little down-the-field play calling, etc) and neither does Riley. He's responsible for his performance and he stunk last night.



I do think there is a fatal flaw in BYU's coaching staffS for the last two decades when it comes to playing Utah. Kyle Whittingham figured out how to defend BYU when many current players were just learning to walk. BYU has yet to adjust to that.



But the players still need to make plays and plays are/were there to be made. Riley didn't make those plays - his PER suffered. He can shoulder the responsibility of his play.

For a similar comparison, you should note Utah RER and PER. You will find that our D shut them down except for the +2 turnovers which led to scores. Some stats in this game favor BYU in terms of yards gained rushing and passing. This reflects closeness of the final score.



IMO we lost this game on a number of things:



1) a stupid penalty that gave them a field goal instead of punting;

2) Nelson made some costly mistakes. His interception was a terrible pass, and on some of the options he failed to pitch to the open RB and instead kept the ball.

3) OL was not able to block out noise and false snap counts by Ute DL - resulted in 7 false starts.

4) Riley and Tushaus miscommunication - he twice was making audibles with WRs when the center snapped the ball. On the second fumble, we didn't recover it and handed them a TD - totally changed complexion of game - we were in position to score. If we score, we win the game.

5) two missed field goals



For all of the Bronco haters, which of these is Bronco's fault because he didn't coach his players properly?



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byucougar1 wrote:
For a similar comparison, you should note Utah RER and PER. You will find that our D shut them down except for the +2 turnovers which led to scores. Some stats in this game favor BYU in terms of yards gained rushing and passing. This reflects closeness of the final score.



IMO we lost this game on a number of things:



1) a stupid penalty that gave them a field goal instead of punting;

2) Nelson made some costly mistakes. His interception was a terrible pass, and on some of the options he failed to pitch to the open RB and instead kept the ball.

3) OL was not able to block out noise and false snap counts by Ute DL - resulted in 7 false starts.

4) Riley and Tushaus miscommunication - he twice was making audibles with WRs when the center snapped the ball. On the second fumble, we didn't recover it and handed them a TD - totally changed complexion of game - we were in position to score. If we score, we win the game.

5) two missed field goals



For all of the Bronco haters, which of these is Bronco's fault because he didn't coach his players properly?



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I don't consider myself a Bronco hater. But I will answer the question. I am more of a "Why Bronco, Why?" kind of guy. BUt you asked.



#1 is his fault, because Sorenson was not immediately pulled. If you make a mental mistake like that to change the game, you sit. Period. Then that kind of mistake happens less and less. Weird how holding players actually accountable for what they do makes them act responsibly in the future. TO my knowledge, this hasn't happened to anyone not named Jake Heaps. (And I'm not turning it into a Heaps thing, he - to the best of my knowledge - is the only starter that has been benched for an on the field play, his INT in the Air Force game.)



#2 - he chose Nelson. This is his dog in the fight. Nelson was clearly injured, or a headcase, or both. He played one of the worst halves of BYU football in the last 3 years, and Bronco ran with it. Nelson was completely checked out in the 3rd quarter and Bronco still went with him, even though HIll had just come in and converted a TD.



#3 I'm not sure how you think this doesn't come down to coaching. In what world does a lack of preparation and "execution" NOT come down to coaching?



#4 See number 1. These two were still in the game the next play. If it really changes the game and turn a W into an L, then why are those players not sitting on the sidelines for one set of downs thinking about it?



#5 Two missed field goals, well 3 actually. Between 2 Field Goal kickers. Why do we have 2 kickers, again? Because one isn't doing the job? Well, the long range guy can't hit long range ones, and the short distance guy can't hit short ones... So again... how does this NOT come down to coaching, when guys aren't performing and are stilled allowed to continue to not perform? IF you have 2 field goal kickers, you have none.

If you apply this logic to #1 point, then would Whit throw out UT players who grabbed face masks, etc.? Didn't happen because Whit wanted to keep them in for continued aggressive pressure, intimidation, keep D fired up, and playing on edge. Ditto with Bronco. Not to say that some penalties don't require removal of a player (who is out of control emotionally/mentally or trying to hurt opposing player and take them out of the game). Apply this same logic in the WSU game, and we lose Hadley, Sampson, Sorenson and Johnson. Doesn't make sense nor is it in the best interest of the team.



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SpiffCoug wrote:
The standard is the standard. Jake Heaps didn't get excuses for his abysmal PERs (receivers dropping passes, little down-the-field play calling, etc) and neither does Riley. He's responsible for his performance and he stunk last night.



I do think there is a fatal flaw in BYU's coaching staffS for the last two decades when it comes to playing Utah. Kyle Whittingham figured out how to defend BYU when many current players were just learning to walk. BYU has yet to adjust to that.



But the players still need to make plays and plays are/were there to be made. Riley didn't make those plays - his PER suffered. He can shoulder the responsibility of his play.

Totally agree - he was terrible. Simply terrible. Just not as simply terrible as every QB but 1 Vs Utah for 6 or more years and only slightly more Simply Terrible than that one. Simply agree.



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BlueIsBetter wrote:

For a similar comparison, you should note Utah RER and PER. You will find that our D shut them down except for the +2 turnovers which led to scores. Some stats in this game favor BYU in terms of yards gained rushing and passing. This reflects closeness of the final score.



IMO we lost this game on a number of things:



1) a stupid penalty that gave them a field goal instead of punting;

2) Nelson made some costly mistakes. His interception was a terrible pass, and on some of the options he failed to pitch to the open RB and instead kept the ball.

3) OL was not able to block out noise and false snap counts by Ute DL - resulted in 7 false starts.

4) Riley and Tushaus miscommunication - he twice was making audibles with WRs when the center snapped the ball. On the second fumble, we didn't recover it and handed them a TD - totally changed complexion of game - we were in position to score. If we score, we win the game.

5) two missed field goals



For all of the Bronco haters, which of these is Bronco's fault because he didn't coach his players properly?



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I don't consider myself a Bronco hater. But I will answer the question. I am more of a "Why Bronco, Why?" kind of guy. BUt you asked.



#1 is his fault, because Sorenson was not immediately pulled. If you make a mental mistake like that to change the game, you sit. Period. Then that kind of mistake happens less and less. Weird how holding players actually accountable for what they do makes them act responsibly in the future. TO my knowledge, this hasn't happened to anyone not named Jake Heaps. (And I'm not turning it into a Heaps thing, he - to the best of my knowledge - is the only starter that has been benched for an on the field play, his INT in the Air Force game.)



#2 - he chose Nelson. This is his dog in the fight. Nelson was clearly injured, or a headcase, or both. He played one of the worst halves of BYU football in the last 3 years, and Bronco ran with it. Nelson was completely checked out in the 3rd quarter and Bronco still went with him, even though HIll had just come in and converted a TD.



#3 I'm not sure how you think this doesn't come down to coaching. In what world does a lack of preparation and "execution" NOT come down to coaching?



#4 See number 1. These two were still in the game the next play. If it really changes the game and turn a W into an L, then why are those players not sitting on the sidelines for one set of downs thinking about it?



#5 Two missed field goals, well 3 actually. Between 2 Field Goal kickers. Why do we have 2 kickers, again? Because one isn't doing the job? Well, the long range guy can't hit long range ones, and the short distance guy can't hit short ones... So again... how does this NOT come down to coaching, when guys aren't performing and are stilled allowed to continue to not perform? IF you have 2 field goal kickers, you have none.

History re-written again by Blue. Jake Heaps was at most - most simply - in the simply most simple form - a 2nd among equals starter when he showed that he was totally afraid of contact vs AFA after he threw that Pick. They were co-starters but it was made clear from day 1 that Heaps was the 2nd starter.



And - half right - congrats - everyone that follows BYU football knows that our punter is kicking field goals because our field goal kicker is injured and he is kicking because he beat out the 3rd string QB in the tryouts to be The Temporary Field Goal kicker because he is not one. And since he can't hit long obes, the injured guy gives it a shot.

So we either use the field goal kicker who isn't a field goal kicker or the injured one.



So yes - pull them both to make Blue is Bluer - feel Better.



And put in WHOM?



Provide some solution if you ate going to pout and cry like a little baby about something.



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