Average Prediction?!

I just made my prediction for tonight's game and then I checked the average prediction and I was blown away by one number in particular. The average prediction for BYU rushing yards is 159.



159?! Seriously?



Last year against OSU, with our rushing game out of sorts we put up 282 rushing yards on the road. WSU is a worse defense, we get them at home, I have more confidence in our rushing game this year than last, and ball control would probably help us more against the "Air Raid" offense.



I will be very disappointed if we get less than 200 yards rushing, unless we pass for over 400.



I see Cougarcorner.com is tweeting about this now.

200 yards would be a really good benchmark. We hit that, there is less than .1% chance we lose.

I went with 180. We have a bunch of new RBs and our starting RB really only has 1/2 a season under his belt. Plus, I figured WSU was going to focus on stopping the run, forcing BYU to beat them in the air given the wide belief that Riley has a weak arm.

I said 190 with 250 passing. I think we move the ball well. Long drives, consume clock, but with some big plays too. Not the Detmer 3-minutes TD offense though. Not BRonco's style.



I have them passing for300, but rushing for 50. They will move it on us, but once in hte red zone, our D will tighten up. Their best shot will be fade passes to Wilson in teh corner, which will be tougher for us to stop if the ball is thrown really well. Low percentage play though.

I've got us down for more passing than rushing. Wouldn't be surprised to see 60+% of our plays and yards coming on the ground.

Gunk wrote:
I went with 180. We have a bunch of new RBs and our starting RB really only has 1/2 a season under his belt. Plus, I figured WSU was going to focus on stopping the run, forcing BYU to beat them in the air given the wide belief that Riley has a weak arm.

I could see them selling out to stop the run, but I don't think they have the personnel to do it.



Besides, last year against TCU if you take out the Team losses, BYU had 184.



As for our RBs...

2012 Alisa should be better than 2011 Alisa

I think Riley will run less often, but more effectively

I think Pritchard will be better than Kariya (Kariya always got the yard you needed, but rarely got much more than that).

And I am more optimistic about Hine and Williams than I was about JJ.

I will miss Q, but he wasn't all that effective last year and I'd rather have more Alisa and Foote.

I bet we're close to 300 yards rushing. I think I put 275 in my prediction.



I think we're going to run all over them. We're going to run all game long. I wouldn't be surprised for Riley Nelson to have fewer than 25 passing attempts tonight.

Isola wrote:
I just made my prediction for tonight's game and then I checked the average prediction and I was blown away by one number in particular. The average prediction for BYU rushing yards is 159.



159?! Seriously?



Last year against OSU, with our rushing game out of sorts we put up 282 rushing yards on the road. WSU is a worse defense, we get them at home, I have more confidence in our rushing game this year than last, and ball control would probably help us more against the "Air Raid" offense.



I will be very disappointed if we get less than 200 yards rushing, unless we pass for over 400.



I see Cougarcorner.com is tweeting about this now.

I think people misunderstood - the 159 was for RILEY's rushing. ;)

SpiffCoug wrote:
I bet we're close to 300 yards rushing. I think I put 275 in my prediction.



I think we're going to run all over them. We're going to run all game long. I wouldn't be surprised for Riley Nelson to have fewer than 25 passing attempts tonight.

Let the record show that, though I am not Spiff, and though I did not stay at a Holiday Inn, I'm totally on the same page with him. :)

SpiffCoug wrote:
I bet we're close to 300 yards rushing. I think I put 275 in my prediction.



I think we're going to run all over them. We're going to run all game long. I wouldn't be surprised for Riley Nelson to have fewer than 25 passing attempts tonight.

OK good. That is what I was thinking.



Minimum I think Alisa gets 90+, Nelson gets 50+, and the rest get 60+ combined.

It's low, but it's not unfathomable. (OL is suspect, first game of the season, defense may try to shut down the run to force Riley to throw). I'm not sure what number I'd predict but it wouldn't be too much higher, probably 200yds.

Mmmmm......Crow.



The passing game and defense were better than I expected, but the running game was much less. Apparently the average prediction was far closer than my prediction.

We won't know until later in the season. But I hope our lack of rushing yards was more due to WSU being better-than-expected on D (I thought they looked pretty good/fast/strong) than due to our O-line being weak and/or our run game being predictable (it did look like WSU had watched a lot of Riley film from last year and were spying him as well).

We rushed for 123 yards last night.



Longest run was 16 yards. Average was 3 yards/carry. Not impressive against a team like WSU.



Didn't look like to me the OL were getting many holes. Perhaps that was due to play calling. Verdict is still out on the OL.



Good news, not a single fumble.