So what are the chances we...??

**So it turns out that if you post a poll and then edit your message, the poll disappears. Sorry to those who already put in their poll answer. Please re-enter your pick!**



Resurrecting a poll I did a few years ago on CougarBlue.



Instructions

In the poll, give your opinion of the most likely record for the regular season (the mode).

Then give your view of the distribution in a comment by assigning likelihoods next to each possible outcome of 12-0 to 3-7 or worse. (As with all probabilities, the likelihoods over all states should sum to 1.) Your mode from the poll should be the outcome with the highest probability in your list. Then explain if you like. Here's mine:



My Card:

12-0 6%

11-1 12%

10-2 20%

9-3 18%

8-4 15%

7-5 20%

6-6 4%

5-7 3%

4-8 1%

3-7+ 1%



Explanation

I see the season as being bi-modal, mostly because of Riley: either he'll get hurt and we'll soldier on (7-5) or he won't and we'll do pretty well (10-2). For the poll question I went with 10-2 (call it blue-goggled rounding error). 9-3 and 8-4 are likely if Riley gets hurt but refuses to pull himself out. I think we're twice as likely to go 12-0 than 5-7, and more likely to go to a BCS (at 12-0) than to not go bowling (5% cumulative). Still, I think we're twice as likely to go 11-1 than BCS, and three times as likely to go 9-3 than BCS. We have less than a 10% chance of doing worse than 7-5; too many seniors to let that happen.



. . . . .



This was a fun exercise; it made me think hard about what I think will happen, and believe more when Bronco talks about just how hard it is to have a perfect season. Even if we think we should win any given game individually, winning them cumulatively is an entirely different question.



Looking deeply into our mormon tea leaves... what do you see?



BTW, this poll will stay open until the day before the Washington St game, and you can change your response if anything drastic comes out of Fall camp (for us or opponents). I like CougarCorner because people are better informed and make more reasoned assertions. It would be fun to tally everyone's long list and see if our average or our mode gets it right. I'll do that in the lull between the Hawaii game and the bowl game.

My Card:

12-0 5%

11-1 10%

10-2 15%

9-3 25%

8-4 20%

7-5 15%

6-6 5%

5-7 3%

4-8 1%

3-7+ 1%





Explanation

I think there is a good chance we lose to either Utah or Boise. Then I think there is a good chance we lose to Notre Dame and possibly GT just because of the road fatigue answer. If not GT, then possibly we lose a let down game somewhere. If I'm putting my money on it, we go 9-3. If we start 3-0, I lose all that money as we will have momentum and an incredible season. If things don't go well, we lose 4 games. I just don't see this team losing 5 games. I do think this team could get a 1 or 2 loss season if they start out well and keep momentum.

My Card:

12-0 5%

11-1 11%

10-2 22%

9-3 21%

8-4 22%

7-5 12%

6-6 3%

5-7 2%

4-8 1%

3-7+ 1%



Riley Nelson Injury:

1 game 15%

2 games 35%

3 games 35%

4+ games 15%



Explanation

If I set my blue goggles down, I would say that we lose 2-3 of the big road games, most likely Boise State and Notre Dame, plus 1-2 to Washington State, Oregon State, Utah State, or Hawaii. I would accept (but not be happy with) a 9-3 season if it includes wins over Utah and one of BSU, ND, or GA Tech. (and then a Poinsettia Bowl victory of San Diego State!)



I will not be surprised if Riley misses at least 2 games due to injury. Timing of the injury(ies) will be crucial in projecting wins and losses. If we don't have him against Utah or Boise State, we will probably lose those games. If we don't have him for Hawaii or USU those games will become much more difficult and we will need great defense or stellar performance by Lark or Hill to win. If we don't have him for Oregon State, Notre Dame or Georgia Tech, I actually think Lark or Hill will have improved enough to keep us competitive. If we don't have him for Idaho, SJSU, or NMSU, not really a big deal and would actually give Hill some serious game reps for next year.

My Card:

12-0 1%

11-1 9%

10-2 16%

9-3 25%

8-4 22%

7-5 17%

6-6 7%

5-7 2%

4-8 1%

3-7+ 0%

My Card:

12-0 1%

11-1 8%

10-2 16%

9-3 25%

8-4 22%

7-5 17%

6-6 8%

5-7 2%

4-8 1%

3-7+ 0%

My Card:

12-0 1%

11-1 11%

10-2 22%

9-3 33%

8-4 22%

7-5 7%

6-6 2%

5-7 1%

4-8 1%

3-7+ 0%

My Card:

12-0: 2%

11-1: 15%

10-2: 45%

9-3 :15%

8-4 :10%

7-5: 8%

6-6: 4%

5-7: 1%

4-8: 0%

3-7+: 0%

9-3 seems the most likely to me.

8.5 wins is what most models are showing.

Mars wrote:


What about, most-likely surprise loss?





Washington State- Season opener, against The Pirate, great returning QB/WRs.



Utah State- Better than us over the past two years combined.



Hawaii- Their offensive coordinator's game plan helped to beat us 54-10 last year.



Oregon State- I dunno. They have a good coach and good talent.





I say USU, followed by WSU.

There is no way I believe that USU is going to put up a better fight than WSU this year.

12-0 1.5%

11-1 7%

10-2 17.5%

9-3 25%

8-4 22.5%

7-5 15%

6-6 7%

5-7 3%

4-8 1%

3-7 or worse 0.5%



I wish I could give us a better than one in 75 shot at an undefeated season but the four away games are too much. I think we get two (UU and GT) and lose @SJSU or WSU.



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12-0 2.5%

11-1 5%

10-2 12.5%

9-3 25%

8-4 35%

7-5 12.5%

6-6 7.5%

5-7 0r worse 0%



I think if we do better than 8-4 it will be at the expense of BSU and or U.

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Mars wrote:

There is no way I believe that USU is going to put up a better fight than WSU this year.

What do you base that on? BYU is favored over WSU by about 14 points. BYU got lucky to barely beat USU last season, and they killed us the year before that.

My gut.

BroncoBot wrote:

BroncoBot wrote:
There is no way I believe that USU is going to put up a better fight than WSU this year.

What do you base that on? BYU is favored over WSU by about 14 points. BYU got lucky to barely beat USU last season, and they killed us the year before that.

My gut.

We cover that spread - We B Really Good. Simply Really Good.



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Mars wrote:

There is no way I believe that USU is going to put up a better fight than WSU this year.

What do you base that on? BYU is favored over WSU by about 14 points. BYU got lucky to barely beat USU last season, and they killed us the year before that.

USU is going to be a dog this year. They just lost their best players to the NFL. And it's not like they have more NFL players just waiting in the wings to replace them. WSU will for sure be tougher than USU.

We struggled against USU the past two years simply because of who was leading the offense. Against USU (and most everyone else), Heaps was inept. I think USU gets steamrolled this year.

Ungoy wrote:
We struggled against USU the past two years simply because of who was leading the offense. Against USU (and most everyone else), Heaps was inept. I think USU gets steamrolled this year.

Not only because of who was leading our offense, but who was leading theirs. With no Turbin to rely on, their offense won't be nearly as effective.