B
byutxEvery year since I can remember I have bought into the hype. Every year at least since I returned from my mission. Last year I believed Bronco when he said we were the most prepared team he had had in fall camp up to that point. I supported his decision to end fall camp last year a couple practices early and begin on prep for Ole Miss a bit early. I believed we could get away with it. I believed we were poised for some unprecedented things-which ended up being true, but nowhere near how I had hoped. This year Iâve chosen not to. In fact, last December I pretty much wrote off the 2012 season.
Last year we had the talent and the schedule (with a lot of big name teams for whom we would get a lot of credit for beating, despite the fact that none but TCU was particularly noteworthy) necessary to make a run. And then we laid a turd. It was a teamwide failure, including the coaches. Jake Heaps sucked against the good and bad teams we faced. Kids couldnât catch the few passes that JH actually got to them. When Riley Nelson finally became the guy, he outshined JH about 10 to 1 against the bad teams. He struggled against the only 2 respectable teams he faced-TCU finished 32nd in total D and Tulsa finished 99th. He was extremely lucky to have split those games.
I was at both of those games when I realized that it could not get better under Riley Nelson. 17/40 with a lot of huge mental mistakes and poor execution in a game he had a month to prep for against a defense that just wasn't that good is as big an indictment of RN's abilities as anything. Some blamed the OL, some blamed the fact we had little production from the RBs.
It was at the bowl game that I realized we could already write off 2012 as an 8-4 season with our "prize" being a bowl game against an AFA, Nevada or Fresno State if we're lucky and a Wyoming, New Mexico (lol) or Colorado State if we're not. To me, there was almost no point to playing the games. We had (and still likely have) little chance of losing to WSU, OSU, Hawaii, USU, ISU, the other WSU, San Jose or NM State. In my mind we had little hope of beating ND #34 D, Utah #30 D (and who for whatever reason owns us in the rivalry even when we are close in talent and should even be the favorite), BSU #17 and GT #46, whose defensive speed and athleticism is significantly better than Tulsa's. Tulsa would provide about 55 minutes of âhow to make RN look like a JV QBâ video. 8 regular season wins was our ceiling.
Over the last few months I still havenât bought into any hype-although it seems as though there is less hype this year. However, Iâve softened a bit and I began to entertain the idea we would win 9 regular season games and our bowl game vs. a MWC loser. I figured that we'd end up splitting the GT and BSU games. I was still fairly certain that ND would be too much for our offense to handle. I still fear what Manti Teâo will do against us. If I were him Iâd be playing with a chip on my shoulder and with a personal vendetta to make Bronco regret pulling his schollie offer.
That brings me to Utah. I just donât know what to make of this game. 6 years of data suggest that Broncoâs teams are underprepared emotionally for the game. In years where Utah is the clear favorite (2008), they win and win big. In years where the teams are evenly matched (2010, 2011) we lose and when we are clearly the better team (2006, 2007, 2009) we need a miracle to win or we lose (2005). Iâm not sure why this happens. I think that Kryle is better at preparing his guys for the game and a few other things. It seems like they ALWAYS play up and that we ALWAYS play down. Iâm at the point where I almost have to assume a loss if the teams are about even or if Utah is superior. If weâre superior in a particular year, then Iâd gear up for another all-time great finish that hopefully ends in our favor. My heart told me this is the year we finally get over the hump and lay down a beat down that the yewts sorely deserve-just like it did in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011. My head told me itâs all but certainly a loss. The yewts certainly have issues and really werenât particularly wonderful last year and it stands to reason that theyâll be at about the same spot in 2012 they were last year. At this point I think it may be too close to call. And under Broncoâs tenure, that doesnât necessarily bode well for us.
The reality is that there are some major similarities with 2011 and 2012. Weâve got a solid but manageable schedule with a few big name teams-wins for which we will likely get more credit than deserved. But Iâll take it. Weâve got a QB that has been involved in a lot of controversy but that is emerging after a full off-season of being the man. If we win out, weâll be in the national title game discussion. However, even if I force myself into the most blue-goggliest prognosticator mood, I just donât see it. However, I now concede that we have a better chance than I gave us in my most pessimistic predictions of the past few months. I will stop short of predicting our record. Even though I have soured quite a bit on Bronco (a topic for another time to be sure), Iâm going to follow his mantra and take it one game at a time. I think weâll beat Washington State in 19 days-and plan on laying out a more detailed prediction for that game when it gets closer.
As I said before, I havenât bought into any hype this year. I only bought 2 preseason magazines this year (down from the usual 3-4) and Iâve only read a handful of fall camp updates. I havenât even signed up for TBS chat. I have fought the excitement and fought it well. This offseason Iâve been able to spend a lot of time concentrating on work and helping my clients-time that in previous years I wouldâve spent on TBS, CC and rumorboard gobbling up tidbits about how the 5th string free safeties and backup long snapper are progressing.
However, this post may signal the beginning of the end of that fight for me.
Last year we had the talent and the schedule (with a lot of big name teams for whom we would get a lot of credit for beating, despite the fact that none but TCU was particularly noteworthy) necessary to make a run. And then we laid a turd. It was a teamwide failure, including the coaches. Jake Heaps sucked against the good and bad teams we faced. Kids couldnât catch the few passes that JH actually got to them. When Riley Nelson finally became the guy, he outshined JH about 10 to 1 against the bad teams. He struggled against the only 2 respectable teams he faced-TCU finished 32nd in total D and Tulsa finished 99th. He was extremely lucky to have split those games.
I was at both of those games when I realized that it could not get better under Riley Nelson. 17/40 with a lot of huge mental mistakes and poor execution in a game he had a month to prep for against a defense that just wasn't that good is as big an indictment of RN's abilities as anything. Some blamed the OL, some blamed the fact we had little production from the RBs.
It was at the bowl game that I realized we could already write off 2012 as an 8-4 season with our "prize" being a bowl game against an AFA, Nevada or Fresno State if we're lucky and a Wyoming, New Mexico (lol) or Colorado State if we're not. To me, there was almost no point to playing the games. We had (and still likely have) little chance of losing to WSU, OSU, Hawaii, USU, ISU, the other WSU, San Jose or NM State. In my mind we had little hope of beating ND #34 D, Utah #30 D (and who for whatever reason owns us in the rivalry even when we are close in talent and should even be the favorite), BSU #17 and GT #46, whose defensive speed and athleticism is significantly better than Tulsa's. Tulsa would provide about 55 minutes of âhow to make RN look like a JV QBâ video. 8 regular season wins was our ceiling.
Over the last few months I still havenât bought into any hype-although it seems as though there is less hype this year. However, Iâve softened a bit and I began to entertain the idea we would win 9 regular season games and our bowl game vs. a MWC loser. I figured that we'd end up splitting the GT and BSU games. I was still fairly certain that ND would be too much for our offense to handle. I still fear what Manti Teâo will do against us. If I were him Iâd be playing with a chip on my shoulder and with a personal vendetta to make Bronco regret pulling his schollie offer.
That brings me to Utah. I just donât know what to make of this game. 6 years of data suggest that Broncoâs teams are underprepared emotionally for the game. In years where Utah is the clear favorite (2008), they win and win big. In years where the teams are evenly matched (2010, 2011) we lose and when we are clearly the better team (2006, 2007, 2009) we need a miracle to win or we lose (2005). Iâm not sure why this happens. I think that Kryle is better at preparing his guys for the game and a few other things. It seems like they ALWAYS play up and that we ALWAYS play down. Iâm at the point where I almost have to assume a loss if the teams are about even or if Utah is superior. If weâre superior in a particular year, then Iâd gear up for another all-time great finish that hopefully ends in our favor. My heart told me this is the year we finally get over the hump and lay down a beat down that the yewts sorely deserve-just like it did in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011. My head told me itâs all but certainly a loss. The yewts certainly have issues and really werenât particularly wonderful last year and it stands to reason that theyâll be at about the same spot in 2012 they were last year. At this point I think it may be too close to call. And under Broncoâs tenure, that doesnât necessarily bode well for us.
The reality is that there are some major similarities with 2011 and 2012. Weâve got a solid but manageable schedule with a few big name teams-wins for which we will likely get more credit than deserved. But Iâll take it. Weâve got a QB that has been involved in a lot of controversy but that is emerging after a full off-season of being the man. If we win out, weâll be in the national title game discussion. However, even if I force myself into the most blue-goggliest prognosticator mood, I just donât see it. However, I now concede that we have a better chance than I gave us in my most pessimistic predictions of the past few months. I will stop short of predicting our record. Even though I have soured quite a bit on Bronco (a topic for another time to be sure), Iâm going to follow his mantra and take it one game at a time. I think weâll beat Washington State in 19 days-and plan on laying out a more detailed prediction for that game when it gets closer.
As I said before, I havenât bought into any hype this year. I only bought 2 preseason magazines this year (down from the usual 3-4) and Iâve only read a handful of fall camp updates. I havenât even signed up for TBS chat. I have fought the excitement and fought it well. This offseason Iâve been able to spend a lot of time concentrating on work and helping my clients-time that in previous years I wouldâve spent on TBS, CC and rumorboard gobbling up tidbits about how the 5th string free safeties and backup long snapper are progressing.
However, this post may signal the beginning of the end of that fight for me.