Predicting Wins this Year

Last year I ran a simulation based on what I thought the odds were of winning every game in the regular season and it ended up that the most likely result was winning 9 games followed by 10 winning games. I would like to do the same thing this year, but get more input from the users of the site.



What I would like from everyone is the changes BYU has of winning each game. Have the chances between 1-99%, as there is no such thing as a sure win, or sure loss, but things can be pretty close. What I will do is simulate 10,000 seasons based on the average from everyone on the site. I’m doing this because we have some that will be very optimistic, and others that are more down to earth. They should cancel out each other and we will see where we stand. I believe this will give a good bench mark on where the fans expectations are for this year.



My Predictions:



H-WSU 65%

H-WSU 95%

A-UU 55%

A-BSU 60%

H-UH 80%

H-USU 85%

H-OSU 70%

A-ND 55%

A-GT 60%

H-IU 99%

A-SJSU 90%

A-NMSU 95%

H-WSU 75%

H-WSU 95%

A-UU 60%

A-BSU 55%

H-UH 75%

H-USU 80%

H-OSU 70%

A-ND 50%

A-GT 55%

H-IU 95%

A-SJSU 90%

A-NMSU 95%



Pretty close to yours.

I appreciate the optimism in the OP and the 2nd post. BYU favored in every game. Really. See below for REALITY.





My Predictions:



8-9 Regular Season Wins - in case you want to save time and skip your calculation.

Here is Hoping we get the 9 and the Bowl win. I am addicted to double digit winning seasons.





H-WSU 60%

H-WSU 99%

A-UU 40%

A-BSU 40%

H-UH 80%

H-USU 75%

H-OSU 70%

A-ND 40%

A-GT 40%

H-IU 99%

A-SJSU 90%

A-NMSU 98%[/quote]

This - According To The Bibster



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

H-WSU 60%

H-WSU 99%

A-UU 30%

A-BSU 35%

H-UH 95%

H-USU 80%

H-OSU 60%

A-ND 30%

A-GT 50%

H-IU 99%

A-SJSU 95%

A-NMSU 99%

H-WSU 77.8%

H-WSU 99.3%

A-UU 43.7%

A-BSU 41.8%

H-UH 96.2%

H-USU 89.1%

H-OSU 78.7%

A-ND 35.6%

A-GT 22.1%

H-IU 99.8%

A-SJSU 97.5%

A-NMSU 97.6%

H-WSU 100%

H-WSU 100%

A-UU 100%

A-BSU 100%

H-UH 100%

H-USU 100%

H-OSU 100%

A-ND 100%

A-GT 100%

H-IU 100%

A-SJSU 100%

A-NMSU 100%



Do you hear those bells? That's the bells ringing for the Church of the Undefeated Season, baby!

Assuming we are doing whole percentage points:



H-WSU 75%

H-WSU 99%

A-UU 48%

A-BSU 48%

H-UH 87%

H-USU 85%

H-OSU 78%

A-ND 45%

A-GT 49%

H-IU 99%

A-SJSU 95%

A-NMSU 95%

H-WSU 75%

H-WSU 99%

A-UU 40%

A-BSU 45%

H-UH 87%

H-USU 85%

H-OSU 78%

A-ND 55%

A-GT 60%

H-IU 99%

A-SJSU 95%

A-NMSU 95%



Disclaimer- I copied Cougarfan87 predictions and changed the 4 "big games". Because BYU generally is slower to mature than the average team I have lower predictions for UU and BSU and higher percentages for ND and GT. I think both those teams will be a little banged up by the time BYU gets to them.

H-WSU 80%

H-WSU 99%

A-UU 51%

A-BSU 51%

H-UH 90%

H-USU 75%

H-OSU 75%

A-ND 30%

A-GT 40%

H-IU 99%

A-SJSU 90%

A-NMSU 95%

Hawk you are an outlier and those numbers will be thrown out. Unless, of course, several others turn in the same numbers.

scott715 wrote:
Hawk you are an outlier and those numbers will be thrown out. Unless, of course, several others turn in the same numbers.

That was my nickname in college.

hawkwing wrote:

Hawk you are an outlier and those numbers will be thrown out. Unless, of course, several others turn in the same numbers.

That was my nickname in college.

That is because you do not follow instructions - OP said 1-99%.



Outlier. Rebel. Is Outlier a concatenation of outright and liar? Just askin ?



:) :) :)



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

So we currently have an asterisk by hawkwing's percentages?

H-Washington St 65%

H-Weber State 99%

A-Utah 50%

A-Boise State 45%

H- Hawaii 90%

H- Utah State 90%

H- Oregon State 75%

A- Notre Dame 50%

A- Georgia Tech 45%

H- Idaho 99%

A- San Jose St 95%

A- New Mexico St 95%

We B Goin Bowlin



I do not see how we could possibly lose more than six games. No matter what happens.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

H-WSU 100%

H-WSU 100%

A-UU 100%

A-BSU 100%

H-UH 100%

H-USU 100%

H-OSU 100%

A-ND 100%

A-GT 100%

H-IU 100%

A-SJSU 100%

A-NMSU 100%



Disclaimer: I copied Hawkwings numbers and changed the ones I didn't think were realistic.

H-WSU 100%

H-WSU 100%

A-UU 100%

A-BSU 100%

H-UH 100%

H-USU 100%

H-OSU 100%

A-ND 100%

A-GT 100%

H-IU 100%

A-SJSU 100%

A-NMSU 100%

Fans that predict losses are fair-weather fans, :utard: trolls, wear green to games, come late and leave early. :evil:

H-WSU 70%

H-WSU 95%

A-UU 50%

A-BSU 50%

H-UH 70%

H-USU 65%

H-OSU 60%

A-ND 50%

A-GT 50%

H-IU 95%

A-SJSU 95%

A-NMSU 95%