BYU has played tough schedules before.

It doesn't turn out all that great when we do play tough schedules.



Our 10 contracted opponents in 2013 have finished ranked 38 times in the cumulative 100 seasons of football over the last decade. So based on their recent track record we can expect BYU to face 3-4 end of year ranked opponents that season. So how has BYU done against in seasons when they faced such competition?



8 times in BYU's history has BYU played 3 or more teams in the regular season that finished ranked. Going from best to worst:



1991 8-3-2 final ranking for BYU #23- L neutral #4 Florida St., L @ #19 UCLA, L @ #3 Penn St., W #25 Air Force. BYU also played an OK Utah team, a good SDSU team, and a great Iowa team in the bowl game. To date it is our toughest schedule ever.



1992 8-5 NR- L @ #20 Hawaii, W #24 Fresno St., L @#4 ND, W #24 (coaches) Penn St.



1967 6-4 L @#6 Wyoming, W @#7 Oregon St., L @ #20 (UPI) ASU. We did play football before Lavell



2000 6-6 NR L "neutral" #5 Florida St., L #24 Mississippi St., L @ #14 Colorado St. This team had just enough to send Lavell out with a win.



2010 7-6 L @ #17 Florida St., L #11 Nevada, L @ #2 TCU, L @ #23 (coaches) Utah



2005 6-6 L #18 BC, L #11 TCU, L @ #9 ND



2004 5-6 L #1 USC, L @ #12 BSU, L @ #4 Utah



2003 4-8 L @ #1 USC, L #16 BSU, L #21 Utah. Our worst year in the last 40 years.



That's a 50-44-2 overall record and a 4-22 overall record against those top teams during those seasons. Only once did we finish nationally ranked. If we keep having schedules like 2013 then BYU will have to be better than they have ever been to consistently be better than the 8-4 average record that we have had for the past quarter century.



Not that I'm complaining about the schedule. Tough schedules are trademarks of National Championship teams, and the players and coaches still talk about that goal. Of the 31 teams that were awarded a National Championship by the AP or the Coaches' Poll since BYU won theirs, 26 of them played at least 3 teams in the regular season that finished ranked. In the last 15 years only Alabama last year (2) and USC in 2003 (1) won a title without having to play 3 teams that finished ranked during the regular season.

Nice research. Objective. Tough to argue with. Indisputable.



What this shows is that BYU, generally, is not competitive with ranked team's. This does not mean BYU is bad. There are 80-90 teams every season that are not competitive with ranked teams and only 30 or so who are.



Most teams would win close to zero of those games.



BYU is about a Top 35 performer on average. Better than most BCS schools.



If BYU was equally competitive - they would split those games.



And yes, Hawk, the past is not a perfect indicator of the future. The future could be better or worse.



For those that think mucking through a brutal 7-6 season vs ranked or nearly ranked teams will improve future results and recruiting - please explain what happened to BYU Football for several years after Ty Detmer went 8-3-2 and graduated.



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Most teams aren't competitive with ranked teams. Most ranked teams finish the season with three or fewer losses.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Most teams aren't competitive with ranked teams. Most ranked teams finish the season with three or fewer losses.

Totally agree as I stated in paragraph 2 in the post you seem to be responding to.

mormonrasta wrote:
1991 8-3-2 final ranking for BYU #23- L neutral #4 Florida St., L @ #19 UCLA, L @ #3 Penn St., W #25 Air Force. BYU also played an OK Utah team, a good SDSU team, and a great Iowa team in the bowl game. To date it is our toughest schedule ever.



1992 8-5 NR- L @ #20 Hawaii, W #24 Fresno St., L @#4 ND, W #24 (coaches) Penn St.



1967 6-4 L @#6 Wyoming, W @#7 Oregon St., L @ #20 (UPI) ASU. We did play football before Lavell



2000 6-6 NR L "neutral" #5 Florida St., L #24 Mississippi St., L @ #14 Colorado St. This team had just enough to send Lavell out with a win.



2010 7-6 L @ #17 Florida St., L #11 Nevada, L @ #2 TCU, L @ #23 (coaches) Utah



2005 6-6 L #18 BC, L #11 TCU, L @ #9 ND



2004 5-6 L #1 USC, L @ #12 BSU, L @ #4 Utah



2003 4-8 L @ #1 USC, L #16 BSU, L #21 Utah. Our worst year in the last 40 years.

Good analysis--of all those years, BYU only finished ranked in 1991 having crept back in at 23 following ties to SDSU and Iowa.



If you include bowl games, I'd put the 1985 schedule up there as one of the toughest schedules as well: L - UCLA (#7), W- Air Force (#8), L - Ohio State (#14), plus wins against Washington (won their bowl game) and a decent Utah team.

Cougarbib2 wrote:
For those that think mucking through a brutal 7-6 season vs ranked or nearly ranked teams will improve future results and recruiting - please explain what happened to BYU Football for several years after Ty Detmer went 8-3-2 and graduated.

1991 and 1992 shown in the original post.



1993, 6-6: lost to UCLA (#18), Notre Dame (#2), Ohio State (#11), Fresno State (RV), USU (RV), and Utah



1994, 10-3 (#18): lost to Utah (#10), CSU (#16), and ASU, and beat Air Force (RV) and Notre Dame



1995, 7-4: lost to Air Force, UCLA, ASU, and Utah. None of BYU's opponents even received a vote in the final poll



1996, 14-1 (#5): lost to Washington (#16) and beat Wyoming (#22) and Kansas State (#17)



I don't think recruiting dropped off any compared to the 80s, because BYU still had some talented players, even in the down years. I think defenses learned how to play against BYU's offense.

Mingjai wrote:

For those that think mucking through a brutal 7-6 season vs ranked or nearly ranked teams will improve future results and recruiting - please explain what happened to BYU Football for several years after Ty Detmer went 8-3-2 and graduated.

1991 and 1992 shown in the original post.



1993, 6-6: lost to UCLA (#18), Notre Dame (#2), Ohio State (#11), Fresno State (RV), USU (RV), and Utah



1994, 10-3 (#18): lost to Utah (#10), CSU (#16), and ASU, and beat Air Force (RV) and Notre Dame



1995, 7-4: lost to Air Force, UCLA, ASU, and Utah. None of BYU's opponents even received a vote in the final poll



1996, 14-1 (#5): lost to Washington (#16) and beat Wyoming (#22) and Kansas State (#17)



I don't think recruiting dropped off any compared to the 80s, because BYU still had some talented players, even in the down years. I think defenses learned how to play against BYU's offense.

I did not say it dropped off. I was pointing out to a previous poster that the assumption that playing these schedules will result in a sudden influx of better players to then allow us to beat these teams every single time is flawed. Recruiting stayed about the same - on average. So we continued to have similar success and lack of success most years.



And then, even after Sark went 14-1 against a pretty decent slate by BYU scheduling norms - recruiting did not suddenly become amazing so that we could go undefeated against such schedules - and results dropped again after that great season.



And yes - Hawk that does not mean that the 3rd time won't be The Charm. And yes - the past is not a perfect predictor of the future. But it is probably the best predictor.



If BYU runs the table in 2012 or 2013 or any year for that matter - see how happy I will get to be by being wrong due to being ultra-realistic or whatever it was that I was labelled a day or two ago.



I am not trying to be the Devil's advocate. I suppose I am guilty of being ultra-realistic.



I am looking forward to the very small possibility that I am very wrong about my projections and worries about over-scheduling.



I admit - right here. In 2012 - BYU Could Go All The Way. They could. They are still undefeated. BYU can compete with every opponent in 2012. Four games will have BYU as underdogs. BYU could upset any one of them. And - if small miracles happen often enough - they could win all four of them. Big Assumption: healthy Riley Nelson or short learning curve for his replacement(s) to even be competitive.



2013: even tougher schedule. Rebuilding year. Ask me a year from now. Maybe something will happen this year to make next year look rosier.