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Results of 2011 vs 2012 differences Poll

by Cougs_Rule · 7/12/2012

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Cougs_Rule
2011 Difficulty of Schedule: 5.3

2011 Strength of Team: 6.2



2012 Difficulty of Schedule: 7.0

2012 Strength of Team: 7.0



Ok, I know this is hardly scientific but drawing upon as many polling stat rules as I could in this forum ( sample size/respondant #'s ranged from 9-16; eliminated obvious out-liers, etc)

These are the results.



Summary of the data:

Difficulty of schedule: 2012 difficulty of schedule is up almost 2 points higher from a 5.3 to a 7.0.



Strength of the team was up slightly less than one point, 6.2 in 2011 to 7.0 in 2012.



The pointe differential between years: voters felt that 2011's strength of the team was almost 1 point higher, 5.3 to 6.2.



The point differential for 2012 was dead even, 7.0 to 7.0 (rounded slightly)



This is very interesting to me. Voters felt that the strength of this team this year is equal to the task of the schedule. Whereas, in 2011 they felt the team was stronger than the schedule.



Maybe the results seem to follow what folks are saying that the 2012 team is better than the 2011 team but may not have as high of win total as 2011.

But also , that the team is equal to the task of a stronger schedule in 2012.



I'd Be interested in others viewpoint on the survey.
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SpiffCoug
This is a hard survey to really judge, since we're judging 2011 in hindight and 2012 with projections.
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mizzoucoug
2011 was just a weird year. On paper we looked good but the team never gelled until Riley showed up. When JJ is your best offensive weapon then you suck as a team. I for one am much more confident in the passing game this year and only slightly higher on the RB's because Iona and Alisa will be back there. A Sr. QB doesn't hurt either.
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Cougs_Rule
Agreed.

It seems to me that most posters are claiming that their is an identifiable difference between last years team and 2012. But it did not show up in the poll.

Based on the poll folks would say that the 2012 team is only 8% better overall.

I would say the D is at least 8% and the O is 12-20 % better. Which overall puts this team at 15-25 percent better.
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Cougarbib
dmcougar wrote:
Agreed.

It seems to me that most posters are claiming that their is an identifiable difference between last years team and 2012. But it did not show up in the poll.

Based on the poll folks would say that the 2012 team is only 8% better overall.

I would say the D is at least 8% and the O is 12-20 % better. Which overall puts this team at 15-25 percent better.


Math error on the 15-25%.



Ignoring Special Teams for the moment. If D is 8% better take half of that because we are 8% better half the time assuming equal Time of Posession. Then for O, since you can't seem to decide between 12 and twenty - take the midpoint of 16 and divide that by 2 since you will be 16% better half the time assuming equal TOP. Now add 4 and 8 and BYU will be 12% better overall.



Now factor in Special Teams who will also be 10% better and on the field 10% of the time - and BAM



Weight 45%, 45%, and 10% and you get about the same # The Bibster's gut tells him -



The team will be 10% better if Riley stays healthy. Any difference is either rounding - or outlier definition: any one who disagrees is an outlier.



WINK WINK WINK



The Bibster actually projects this:



QB play will be much better with Nelson healthy. Nelson proved in 2010 and 2011 that a slightly injured Nelson in early 2010 was better than a healthy Heaps and a healthy Nelson in 2011 was much better than a healthy Jake Heaps. Now Nelson also has more experience. QB play with a healthy Nelson would be at least 25% better. At least. Unfortunately, I do not think he will last 13 games. Fortunately, Lark and others can probably match the crap Heaps put out while playing scared and with demoralized teammates. The team will rally behind Lark, Munns, Olsen, Hill, or the too small supposedly forgotten little guy. Although the tough games being relatively early could cause an early injury - I think it was Idaho or Idaho State that went after and got Nelson in 2011. So I assume Nelson is good for half the season. So average 25% and minus 5% and QB play will be 10% better on avg.



Everything else on O is a crap shoot. How could WR be any better. Oops. Unless Nelson is good all season. But we assumed half season. Still. Apo will be better. 5% better receivers.



FB will be same or better. RB is a huge question mark. We might see a significant drop despite what JJ haters and guys that think the other guy was never good for more that a yard or two think. Or they could surprise. Crap shoot. OL - crap shoot. Leaner and meaner. Too lean? New guys? Reynolds and Brown gone. I know haters think they sucked anyway. OL EVEN or down in my book - until I see it on the field.



TE - well they could not possibly be as injured - Could they? I see this Unit being 17% better. Make that 17.5%.



So yes - Offense slightly better due mainly to Nelson, TE, Apo, Pritchard maybe, and inspite of RB and OL.



ST - 10% better due to experience and consistency.



How can the defense be better? Pretty good last year. But RMs and partial starters - I drink the KoolAid - 7.5% better. Slightly better everywhere and Safety most improved.



There you have it.



10% better - I did not calculate - just feel it in my BIB.



Schedule - 25% tougher. I measure this by how many games we will be the dog and how many other games will be expected to be close - and thus potential upset losses. 25% more of those in 2012.



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Cougarbib
Schedule difficulty rationale.



Underdogs:



2011 - Texas and TCU.



2012 - ND, GT, U, and BSU. 100% more difficult so far.



Potential Upsets - trust me they happen. Some of you are expecting BYU to upset 1-4 of the games listed above. Others expect Bronco to win the ones he is supposed to but never win the ones he is not supposed to. But we nudged Okie and got killed by U - so it goes both ways.



Upsets happen.



2011 - Ole Miss, U, Tulsa, Oregon State, USU, UCF, @Hawaii - did I miss any?



2012 - Washington State, Oregon State, USU, *Hawaii, Bowl Game, - did I miss any?



2011 had more risk here. Utah killed us. USU nearly best us. Ole Miss was a win snatched from the jaws of defeat by KVN iirc. UCF had me on pins and needles. UH was a road game. Luckily their QB was injured and depth depleted by the time we played them. OSU QB had some spark. Anyway we lost one of these and could easily have lost two more. I know - we had a great shot of upsetting Texas and a decent shot at TCU. Anyway 7 - upset specials is riskier than 5 and USU should be less risk and Hawaii is in Provo.



Overall - at least 25% more risk of losses. At least.



Cupcakes - ignore these - it does not matter how much frosting is on a cupcake - sure win with or without frosting 95% of the time.



2011 - Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, *San Jose State

2012 - Weber State, Idaho, New Mexico State, *San Jose State



@Hawaii is definitely riskier than *Hawaii and SJSU had, and may again have, less frosting than the other cupcakes.



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Cougs_Rule
"Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.". Jk, but good thoughts, math and analysis.

My original intent was to flush out that fact that you and others were saying this is a much better offense than last year but not in the end giving them credit and stating over and over that the schedule was so much harder.

And as I analyze your math relative to SOS, this year is not 100% harder. 2 of 11 as underdogs vs 4 of 11 is about a 20% increase in SOS. But you make it sound like it is about 30-40% more difficult. A little horrible-zing? Hedging?

If the team has improved and the schedule has improved proportionately, why do I keep hearing all this gloom that you are calling realistic thinking? Again, it sounds like a whole lot of hedging going on. But I guess that is better than the unrealistic NC discussions that occurred for this year in the past two years.
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Mars
mizzoucoug wrote:
2011 was just a weird year. On paper we looked good but the team never gelled until Riley showed up. When JJ is your best offensive weapon then you suck as a team. I for one am much more confident in the passing game this year and only slightly higher on the RB's because Iona and Alisa will be back there. A Sr. QB doesn't hurt either.

JJ was by far the best offensive weapon in 2010. In 2011, his opportunities were cut and Cody Hoffman probably became our #1 attack. Name a RB we have in 2012 that receives the ball better than JJ... I don't think we have one.
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Cougs_Rule
JJ was a net zero for effect on this team. Fairly productive on the field (when relied on more limtedly than he wanted and not more often which would have AND did previously, lead to limited productivity) and a divisive, malcontent on the bench. Sorry, but he wasn't close to the most productive, unless you consider 3rd place at best, to be close. Riely and Hoff were each more productive than JJ. I would put him equal to Alisa. Why do you think Alissa was getting reps over the Sr in the first place?
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Guest
dmcougar wrote:
JJ was a net zero for effect on this team. Fairly productive on the field (when relied on more limtedly than he wanted and not more often which would have AND did previously, lead to limited productivity) and a divisive, malcontent on the bench. Sorry, but he wasn't close to the most productive, unless you consider 3rd place at best, to be close. Riely and Hoff were each more productive than JJ. I would put him equal to Alisa. Why do you think Alissa was getting reps over the Sr in the first place?

I believe you're wrong about this one. Not a single RB could catch the ball out of the backfield except for JJ.



Also, Alisa had 70% of the carries that JJ did, and 29% of the receiving yards.
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SpiffCoug
dmcougar wrote:
"Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.". Jk, but good thoughts, math and analysis.

My original intent was to flush out that fact that you and others were saying this is a much better offense than last year but not in the end giving them credit and stating over and over that the schedule was so much harder.

And as I analyze your math relative to SOS, this year is not 100% harder. 2 of 11 as underdogs vs 4 of 11 is about a 20% increase in SOS. But you make it sound like it is about 30-40% more difficult. A little horrible-zing? Hedging?

If the team has improved and the schedule has improved proportionately, why do I keep hearing all this gloom that you are calling realistic thinking? Again, it sounds like a whole lot of hedging going on. But I guess that is better than the unrealistic NC discussions that occurred for this year in the past two years.

No, but it is a 100% increase in the amount of underdog games.
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Cougarbib
dmcougar wrote:
"Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.". Jk, but good thoughts, math and analysis.

My original intent was to flush out that fact that you and others were saying this is a much better offense than last year but not in the end giving them credit and stating over and over that the schedule was so much harder.

And as I analyze your math relative to SOS, this year is not 100% harder. 2 of 11 as underdogs vs 4 of 11 is about a 20% increase in SOS. But you make it sound like it is about 30-40% more difficult. A little horrible-zing? Hedging?

If the team has improved and the schedule has improved proportionately, why do I keep hearing all this gloom that you are calling realistic thinking? Again, it sounds like a whole lot of hedging going on. But I guess that is better than the unrealistic NC discussions that occurred for this year in the past two years.

Did not say 100% overall. Did say 25% overall. Did say we are underdogs 100% more. That is a 2 times 2 equals 4 = 100% calculation on just the underdog part. And many expect and all hope to upset some of those. In 2011 - same hopes and expectations. But no upsets. Thus the ton of angst that unfolded.



But - I agree - not 100% overall. We were upset by Utah last year - nearly by Ole Miss, USU, and close games with others. This year has less risk of BYU getting upset.



Thus - I somehow - though with no calculation to support it - put on Bkue Goggles and called it a 25% more difficult schedule. It is at least 25% more difficult.



But this is much easier to understand if you look at what non BYU fan experts project. They all scoff at the 2011 schedule and project that there is no asterisk whatsoever next to the 2012 schedule overall. And they will note that 2013 is even tougher. They will.



Anyone that does not think the 2012 has significantly more risk of losses than the 2011 schedule is in denial. Keep in mind - BYU was favored in the Utah game. Really. Favored by 3 or so.



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Cougarbib
hawkwing wrote:
JJ was a net zero for effect on this team. Fairly productive on the field (when relied on more limtedly than he wanted and not more often which would have AND did previously, lead to limited productivity) and a divisive, malcontent on the bench. Sorry, but he wasn't close to the most productive, unless you consider 3rd place at best, to be close. Riely and Hoff were each more productive than JJ. I would put him equal to Alisa. Why do you think Alissa was getting reps over the Sr in the first place?

I believe you're wrong about this one. Not a single RB could catch the ball out of the backfield except for JJ.



Also, Alisa had 70% of the carries that JJ did, and 29% of the receiving yards.


Other than a 1 or 2 game flash - Alisa was no better than JJ or Kariya. But being younger - we can hope that he gets better and better with experience.



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mizzoucoug
Mars wrote:
2011 was just a weird year. On paper we looked good but the team never gelled until Riley showed up. When JJ is your best offensive weapon then you suck as a team. I for one am much more confident in the passing game this year and only slightly higher on the RB's because Iona and Alisa will be back there. A Sr. QB doesn't hurt either.

JJ was by far the best offensive weapon in 2010. In 2011, his opportunities were cut and Cody Hoffman probably became our #1 attack. Name a RB we have in 2012 that receives the ball better than JJ... I don't think we have one.


Alisa is a good receiving RB as we saw in the TCU game. He had far less playing time than JJ too so it's not a fair comparison. Alisa has the strength to run between the tackles and not go down with arm tackles. I don't know if his speed is really much better, but JJ was too soft and a fumble bum. I think you are overrating the importance of being a receiver. We need a true running back to keep D's honest.
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Cougarbib
mizzoucoug wrote:
mizzoucoug wrote:
2011 was just a weird year. On paper we looked good but the team never gelled until Riley showed up. When JJ is your best offensive weapon then you suck as a team. I for one am much more confident in the passing game this year and only slightly higher on the RB's because Iona and Alisa will be back there. A Sr. QB doesn't hurt either.

JJ was by far the best offensive weapon in 2010. In 2011, his opportunities were cut and Cody Hoffman probably became our #1 attack. Name a RB we have in 2012 that receives the ball better than JJ... I don't think we have one.


Alisa is a good receiving RB as we saw in the TCU game. He had far less playing time than JJ too so it's not a fair comparison. Alisa has the strength to run between the tackles and not go down with arm tackles. I don't know if his speed is really much better, but JJ was too soft and a fumble bum. I think you are overrating the importance of being a receiver. We need a true running back to keep D's honest.


Yes - and Alisa is hardly a Harvey Unga at this point. Actually a great RB needs to do both things well. Keeps defenses honest. Alisa is unproven. He may turn out great. He gets his Shot in 2012.
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Cougs_Rule
JJ will be totally forgotten and not missed this year on the field. Very easily replaced. But what's more is that he is no longer contributing to poor morale and off-field issues. Net zero last year. Net gain this year with his departure.
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Cougarbib
dmcougar wrote:
JJ will be totally forgotten and not missed this year on the field. Very easily replaced. But what's more is that he is no longer contributing to poor morale and off-field issues. Net zero last year. Net gain this year with his departure.

Did you miss the last few games of the season. After a one or two game flash - defenses adjusted - and Alisa looked pretty ordinaryv- and JJ started getting more reps again. And Juice was not good all year.



Like all fans - I hope the experience and reps since then elevate Alisa to have a special season. Hope Juice is healthy - and experience and reps boost him up. Hope fans are not bagging on these guys and calling for the freshmen to get more reps. The usual stuff. We do not have a RB who has proven to be anything more than decent but not great. Njust like the last two years. But hope springs eternal.
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Mars
mizzoucoug wrote:
Name a RB we have in 2012 that receives the ball better than JJ... I don't think we have one.
Alisa is a good receiving RB as we saw in the TCU game... I think you are overrating the importance of being a receiver. We need a true running back to keep D's honest.

I think to be a true running back, you have to be able to catch it as well as run it. ESPECIALLY at BYU. Failing to throw the ball to the RB is part of what made Jake Heaps a colossal failure.



Alisa had 55 yards receiving in 2011. DiLuigi had 443 in 2010. No comparison.
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scott715
I remember back when Todd Christensen played, that they threw a lot to the RBs on flares. Every time they got at least five yards a play. One team even had the DE grab the RB as if he was being blocked. I have to assume that the D did not know how to defend the play and now they do. But it sure was effective.
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Guest
My biggest complaint about the offense last year was the lack of throwing to the RB. Even after Riley Nelson took over and we were no longer throwing 5 yards over their heads we still only occasionally attempted a pass to the RB.
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