Top 4 SOS needed

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I think this answers some of our questions about how hard our schedule will need to be. Eliminate the +100 teams from the scheule and we will be in the ball park for the necessary SOS to make the top 4.

This article points out exactly what BYU should NOT do. We do need to have some good games on the schedule. But we also need to balance the schedule out with some easier games. I don't think we need Weber State, Idaho, and New Mexico State on the schedule each year, but one game like that is probably fine and perhaps desirable. I like the following formula, and think we are following it well so far in future scheduling:



1-2 games (no more than 2) against the likes of Texas, Nebraska, Wisconsin

1 game v. Boise

1 game v. Notre Dame

2 games v. Hawaii and Utah State

1-2 games v. above-average Big East, Big 12, or ACC (GA Tech, FSU, Houston, UCF, WVU)

1-2 games v. decent MWC and C-USA teams (S. Miss, East Carolina)

1-2 games v. below average MWC and C-USA (SJSU, UNLV, New Mexico)

1-2 games v. WAC or FCS (Idaho, Idaho State, Weber)



If we overschedule, it will be too hard to go undefeated and the point is moot.



I predict that if BYU goes undefeated against the 2012 schedule (barring horrible seasons by Boise, Utah, Notre Dame, and GA Tech), BYU would land in the top 4....even with Weber, Idaho, SJSU, and NMSU on the schedule.

Exactly right YNot. Play (and win) some difficult games and then fill the schedule with less difficult games. Let the course of NCAA football eliminate most contenders for the playoff spots chances are most teams will slip up a couple times.

I don't like having Weber and NMSU on the schedule this year. We could play better teams and still not change our chance of losing while improving the SOS. Look at last year some decent teaqms had crappy years and it hurt our SOS and public opinion of out team. You don't know how it will play out. I would like to replace those two with LA Tech, Fresno, SDSU or Air Force type teams. Pure cup cakes need to be avoided totally.

I fear that if we are perfect but don't have any or only a few top 25 wins that we will get past over by an one loss BCS team due to the SOS. No 100+ teams will help us. Keep all of the games in the 60s plus a couple near top 25 and the SOS will work out.

scheduling better on the bottom ranked teams can compensate for lack of top tier teams.

I love having NMSU on the schedule but only because it's most likely the only game I can attend.

Looking at 2013 and forward, which when our real independent scheduling begins, I have no complaints about the games so far. They all fall into at least one of my personal criteria for the kind of teams we should schedule...



Local Interest

Utah (PAC 12)

Utah State (WAC)

Notre Dame (Ind)

Boise State (MWC/Big East?)



Independent/Academy

Notre Dame (Ind)



Power Conferences

Texas (Big 12)

Washington State (PAC 12)

Georgia Tech (ACC)

Nebraska (Big 10)

West Virginia (Big East)



Geography/Recruiting

@ Houston (USA)

Central Florida (USA)

Southern Miss (USA)

East Carolina (USA)





That said, I would still like to see BYU get some "core" games in place...



Utah (PAC 12)

Utah State (MWC)

Hawaii (MWC)

Boise State (MWC/Big East?)

Notre Dame (Ind)

Academy - Army (Ind), Navy (Big East), Air Force (MWC) on rotating basis



That still leaves plenty of scheduling flexibility.

FORGET UTAH!



Unless they are willing to come to BYU and ask that the series be continued on a home and home basis, I wouldn't talk to them again. Forget 'em. If they want to squander what was one of the greatest rivalries in college football that's fine with me. If I were Tom Holmoe, I'd see this as an excellent opportunity to cut ties.



Why do so many BYU fans think that that is a must have that game on the schedule. BYU will be just fine without that game and until they changes their tune, I'm fine with letting red rocks try to ride the pac-12 wave. Just a few years ago weren't we (including utah fans) talking about how horrible the pac-10 was? They had big names with no good teams. MWC consistently beat up on them. I think that BYU being independent has opened a lot of kids eyes and KW can't sell utah as a BYU light as much. It makes the difference between utah and BYU that much greater and BYU should consistently have a BETTER schedule than utah.

BroncoBot wrote:
FORGET UTAH!



Unless they are willing to come to BYU and ask that the series be continued on a home and home basis, I wouldn't talk to them again. Forget 'em. If they want to squander what was one of the greatest rivalries in college football that's fine with me. If I were Tom Holmoe, I'd see this as an excellent opportunity to cut ties.



Why do so many BYU fans think that that is a must have that game on the schedule. BYU will be just fine without that game and until they changes their tune, I'm fine with letting red rocks try to ride the pac-12 wave. Just a few years ago weren't we (including utah fans) talking about how horrible the pac-10 was? They had big names with no good teams. MWC consistently beat up on them. I think that BYU being independent has opened a lot of kids eyes and KW can't sell utah as a BYU light as much. It makes the difference between utah and BYU that much greater and BYU should consistently have a BETTER schedule than utah.

I'll try to find the link, but I read an analysis that showed that Utah's SOS was BETTER in 2009 and 2010 with the MWC schedule than the PAC 12 schedule in 2011...and likely 2012. Granted, Utah avoids juggernauts Stanford and Oregon (ranked #4 and 5 last year) in their first two years of PAC 12 play, but that's pretty funny.

scott715 wrote:
I don't like having Weber and NMSU on the schedule this year. We could play better teams and still not change our chance of losing while improving the SOS. Look at last year some decent teaqms had crappy years and it hurt our SOS and public opinion of out team. You don't know how it will play out. I would like to replace those two with LA Tech, Fresno, SDSU or Air Force type teams. Pure cup cakes need to be avoided totally.

I fear that if we are perfect but don't have any or only a few top 25 wins that we will get past over by an one loss BCS team due to the SOS. No 100+ teams will help us. Keep all of the games in the 60s plus a couple near top 25 and the SOS will work out.

scheduling better on the bottom ranked teams can compensate for lack of top tier teams.

So - let me get this straight - without affecting our odds of losing a game, you want to replace Weber State with Air Force Academy - AFA. Is that the same AFA that kicked our glass last time we played them. Or SDSU - the team that still thinks they did beat us when we got a lucky break in the game we narrowly won. Or Fresno State that upset a favored BYU team the last time I drove a group to Fresno for a game. Or LA Tech - who, on occasion, fields a team that beat USU who nearly beat us two years in a row. Yeah replace WSU and NMSU with those guys - that won't change our odds of losing. Maybe we ought to check with the odds-makers on that one.



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BroncoBot wrote:
FORGET UTAH!



Unless they are willing to come to BYU and ask that the series be continued on a home and home basis, I wouldn't talk to them again.

That obviously goes without saying. Rest assured, BYU will never entertain any other scenario.

Mars wrote:


I think a schedule full of 5-7 BCS teams and 7-5 non-BCS teams, along with a 9+ win I-AA team, is just about the perfect schedule. Wins, plus decent SOS. Just good enough to win a lot of get some respect for it, thus higher rankings.

superb analysis Mars. +1 (along with sound of mario hitting a coinbox.

Granted an Air Force does increase the chance of losing and we lost to them last time. But that team was 7-6 with no QB. What is our record against them over the last 10 game? I don't think there is a material increased risk. If our team is good enough to be top 4 the chance does not change much but our SOS does improve.



I think we can't afford to play a +100 team like Weber. Avoid the really crappy teams to compensate the lack of top 10 team.

P. S. In case it wasn't mentioned, the article states that to finish in the top 4, you need a top 41-or-so SOS. And that going undefeated regardless of a weak schedule is the most important factor.



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Mars wrote:
P. S. In case it wasn't mentioned, the article states that to finish in the top 4, you need a top 41-or-so SOS. And that going undefeated regardless of a weak schedule is the most important factor.



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The article says the lowest ever SOS for a TOP TWO team was 41 (Miami in 2002). That stat doesn't matter, as the playoff will contain four teams. It's looking at the #4 spot that is most important now.



TCU has made the top 4 twice with SOS in the 80's (89 in 2009 and 82 in 2010). The AVERAGE #4 ranked team is #45 SOS. BYU's average SOS over the last 12 years is 61. So, we are already within the realm of possibility. The closer we get the SOS to 45, however, the more likely an undefeated BYU would finish in the top 4 and get the invite. Switching out Weber and Idaho for Air Force and Nevada or similar teams would probably do the trick. But an undefeated BYU with our current schedules would have a pretty decent shot at finishing in the top 4.



Note that Boise State has never finished in the top 4 (even when undefeated), but it's AVERAGE SOS is 90. That sucks. BYU's past schedules have mostly been much better than Boise's.

We are not considered to be among the big boys. if we are borderline we might not get picked by the committee. We probably need a bit of a cushion to be safe.

scott715 wrote:
We are not considered to be among the big boys. if we are borderline we might not get picked by the committee. We probably need a bit of a cushion to be safe.

Yep. It's kind of like our basketball team needs a cushion for NCAA tourney seeding.

How many losses does the average #4 team with a SOS in the 40s have? I would like to see the SOS stats for #4 teams that are undefeated, one loss and two losses (I don't think there have been any with 3 losses).



Let's face it. BYU won't get in unless they are undefeated. If BYU has a SOS in the 50s (or maybe as high as 70) and goes undefeated they would probably make a playoff (unless the criteria change). If BYU has one loss they would likely need a SOS in the 20s (which isn't likely to happen).

scott715 wrote:
We are not considered to be among the big boys. if we are borderline we might not get picked by the committee. We probably need a bit of a cushion to be safe.

Actually - more importantly - we need to actually go undefeated to even be in the discussion - something we have failed to do for over 25 straight years. There is a proven formula. U, TCU, and BSU did it. UH too.



But everyone assumes that BYU can somehow jump up the schedule but somehow go undefeated at the same fell swoop. Baby Steps. Schedule to win. Go undefeated twice in a row. Maybe that helps recruiting. Then step up schedule - slightly.



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jvquarterback wrote:
How many losses does the average #4 team with a SOS in the 40s have? I would like to see the SOS stats for #4 teams that are undefeated, one loss and two losses (I don't think there have been any with 3 losses).



Let's face it. BYU won't get in unless they are undefeated. If BYU has a SOS in the 50s (or maybe as high as 70) and goes undefeated they would probably make a playoff (unless the criteria change). If BYU has one loss they would likely need a SOS in the 20s (which isn't likely to happen).

Per Sagarin's SOS rankings (not necessarily the best indicator of what SOS will be under the playoff system, but at least some empirical data to compare), the last 6 seasons (2006-2011) have shown the following:



Average ranking of #4 team (per BCS standings) = 32.8

Average ranking of one-loss #4 team = 24.3 ('11 Stanford, '10 Stanford, '08 Alabama)

Average ranking of two-loss #4 team = 32 ('07 Oklahoma, '06 LSU)

'09 TCU was the lone undefeated #4 team in this time span, with a 60 SOS.



The data also shows that the selection committee will have some fun choosing the #3 and #4 in many years. For instance, in 2010, Stanford was 11-1 with the 9th SOS. Wisconsin was 11-1 and Big Ten champ, but SOS of 66. Which does the committee weigh more, SOS or conference championship?



In 2009, you had Cincinnati (12-0, SOS 44, conf. champ), TCU (12-0, SOS 60, conf. champ), and Florida (12-1, SOS 15, lost in conference championship). Cincy and TCU had the conference championships and better records, but Florida had by far the better SOS.



In 2008, Alabama (12-1, SOS 28, no champ), USC (11-1, SOS 16, champ), Utah (12-0, SOS 56, champ). USC has only one loss, best SOS, and conference championship, but Utah was an undefeated conference champ. Alabama was ranked #4 in the polls. Who do you take?



In 2007, Oklahoma (11-2, SOS 44, champ) and Georgia (10-2, SOS 23, no champ). Do you take the conference champ over strength of schedule?



2006 was easier (IMO), LSU (10-2) was no. 4 with SOS 20 and no championship, but USC had the same record 10-2 record with SOS #2 and won the PAC 10...BUT, Louisville was 11-1, SOS 27 and champ and Boise State was undefeated (12-0) and WAC champ, but SOS of 90.



Also per Sagarin, BYU's average SOS was 69.5 during this 6-year stretch, with 2010 being the toughest at 55 and 2011 being the worst at 94.