Odds of winning NC

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1217838-setting-the-br-odds-on-every-team-winning-the-bcs-championship?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=byu-football" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



170/1 on slide 10.

So you're saying there's a chance! ;)

Yes, way better than 1 in a million.

Chance of going undefeated = (.75*.99*.50*.50*.85*.85*.70*.45*.50*.99*.95*.99) = 2%

WSU 75%

WSU 99%

Utah 50%

BSU 50%

UH 85%

USU 85%

OSU 70%

ND 45%

GT 50%

I 99%

SJSU 95%

NMSU 99%



Chance of all SEC, Big10, and Big12 teams having 2 losses, all PAC, ACC and Big East schools with 1 loss = 10%



Chance of BYU getting in BCS championship game = 0.02*0.10 =0.2%



I'll give them even odd on winning the championship so chance of winning a NC = 1/1000.

You sound like Engineer 84, calculating in 06 how the odds were vanishingly small that Beck would go undefeated after the first two losses.



But I do agree, VERY little chance of being undefeated or NC...

Given all the forces at play including CARTEL behavior -



The Odds are 1 / Infinity - definition = approaches zero



As close to zero as you can get without being zero.



There is a chance. The odds were much better in 1984 due to playing a weaker schedule - much weaker - and due to The Cartel being less organized.



What does a well organized Cartel look like -



Mention the asterisk by the 1984 Schedule and count down



1, 2, 3



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