Podcast: Bold Predictions*, Senior QBs, 2012 Season & Jabari

After a brief Spring hiatus the CougarCorner podcast is back and we're talking about the best topics in Cougar sports right now.



Check it out and let us know what you think!



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I must toot our own horn, because I think this was a really good podcast. We covered a lot of ground and did it well.

Being iPhone challenged - I have no clue. Things are a bit quiet. There must be some insiders somewhere that can tell us who is and who is not showing up for informal workouts - and which newbie surprised others with their speed or accuracy or endurance or leadership.



Or maybe the reason for division in the team exited left and the team is amazingly unified.



Maybe even the coaches are working harder - or not.



Sheesh - it is so quiet.



Maybe we need expansion rumors, QB controversy, recruiting defections or a highly publicized HC violation just to keep interest high in the fanbase.



And for the record - The Bibster is excited for that WSU game. Sheesh, their HC is the guy many once clamored for as OC at The Y. And he is colorful. Who knows what he may say about fat COEDS at BYU - especially those Freshman 10 girls.



This will be a great season opener. You can put an {*} by that one on the schedule.



BTW - I am also excited about that OSU game later this year and the Hawaii game and that battle of the stolen colors - USU rematch.



I am excited to see what Riley Nelson can rally the troops to do - sorry about the war related Metaphor there.



This will be a season of Asterisks and Metaphors - historians will debate for years who was In The Way of Whom this year when nobody is ready to take the reins vs the most daunting overall schedule ever in 2013. You can put an asterisk by that schedule right now.



Bold Prediction:



Bronco will announce this season as The Quest To Entertain - and This BYU team will deliver in a Cardiac Kids kind of way.



Google That.



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I hope Riley is Taking a page from Jakes book this summer and getting some coaching on his mechanics and throwing. Seriously. If we are to have a good season, he has to become a threat downfield and not just Chuckin ducks. It didn't work at Utah and it won't work again this year. Nor will it at bsu, ND, or GT.

I hope it's true what Doman is saying, that Riey is at the same "level" that Beck and Hall was going into his Sr year. I bet not just the doubters like me doubt that. I bet some of his fan club doubt that as well.

That's right. He needs qb coaching. He already tested out of the Bibster leadership coarse. Jake needed a semester of that. But leadership and followers hip from his team ain't going to get the passing game in high gear like it was for beck and hall. Oh yes, I get PER and all that, but dink and dunk or I'm not sure what to call what byu does, but it's not downfield. Whch means the Oline has to create more time as well.

Is anyone going to the Junior day next week? Looks like a lot of talent will be there. And we should get some committments too. Enough to keep us talking for a week.

dmcougar wrote:
I hope Riley is Taking a page from Jakes book this summer and getting some coaching on his mechanics and throwing. Seriously. If we are to have a good season, he has to become a threat downfield and not just Chuckin ducks. It didn't work at Utah and it won't work again this year. Nor will it at bsu, ND, or GT.

I hope it's true what Doman is saying, that Riey is at the same "level" that Beck and Hall was going into his Sr year. I bet not just the doubters like me doubt that. I bet some of his fan club doubt that as well.

That's right. He needs qb coaching. He already tested out of the Bibster leadership coarse. Jake needed a semester of that. But leadership and followers hip from his team ain't going to get the passing game in high gear like it was for beck and hall. Oh yes, I get PER and all that, but dink and dunk or I'm not sure what to call what byu does, but it's not downfield. Whch means the Oline has to create more time as well.

I guess i missed the interview where Doman said Riley was on the same level as Beck and Hall. Id love to read that. Anyone have a link?

The Bibster does not expect Nelson to remind anyone of Beck or Hall when throwing. He will not. I did not see the Bronco quote, but I do expect Nelson to have the same kind of knowledge of the play book that Beck and Hall had and the same knowledge of what defenses are doing. Maybe that is What Bronco met.



I do expect Nelson to add a dimension that neither Beck nor Hall had to his level - the threat to make something out of nothing using his wheels and the ability to make the defense respect him as a designed runner at any time.



But zipping darts into tight coverage by quick and fast DBs - I would take Beck. Deep rainbow - Beck.



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There were real questions surrounding Beck going into 2006. He was good at times, but very inconsistent. He only surpassed the 135 PER in like five or six games in 2005. And it really took him a few games into 2006 to hit his stride.



I don't think we'll see a Beck-type senior season from Nelson - but we could. If Nelson is highly successful, he won't look like previous QBs did. But the results (11-wins) certainly will.

With these standards you came up with, what kind of stat line are we looking at for Riley to hit the 155 PER?



30 TD

12 INT

3,250 yards

65%

??? comp.

??? att.



I don't know if those were the exact standrards you listed, but plug in the minimums you already gave and make sure Riley doesn't need to average an absurd number of yards to reach 155 PER.

Y12 wrote:
With these standards you came up with, what kind of stat line are we looking at for Riley to hit the 155 PER?



30 TD

12 INT

3,250 yards

65%

??? comp.

??? att.



I don't know if those were the exact standrards you listed, but plug in the minimums you already gave and make sure Riley doesn't need to average an absurd number of yards to reach 155 PER.

Good question. I didn't think about calculating the per of the standards we set for senior QBs to make sure it was in the 155 zone we set. I'll let Spiff calculate it out.

But that means I'll have to use algebra! How do I solve for two variables again?

If Nelson averages 155 PER - BYU will have a very good season no matter what comprises it.



Any way Spiff - solve for one variable in terms of the other and then substitute that for the variable in the original equation - add an adjustment for the 500 yards rushing, and another adjustment for the fun and excitement - erase everything - and write down 155.



Undoubtably - someone is going to forget that we are talking averages - and go off every time he faces a good defense and comes up under the average and then we will be told that he only hit 155 because it is padded by playing WAC patsies - forgetting entirely - that this is the way it was for the other seniors as well.



Bold Prediction: Nelson will not play as well vs good defenses as he does vs crappy ones.



The Bibster just hopes Nelson survives long enough to play against a few of the really bad defenses or he will be well below 155 for the season.



And if Nelson jumps us up in those last few games such that he only plays a half - and misses opportunity for further average raising - let's all agree to forgive him.



If BYU could get a 155 PER every year - things would be sweeter.



Bold Prediction: In 2013 - BYU will not even sniff a 155 avg PER due to SOS and inexperience.



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Predicting that a non senior qb will not hit expectations of senior BYU qbs is bold? I call that a sure thing.

252 completions

387 attempts (Btw Heaps & Nelson, BYU had 423 attempts in 2010 & 450 in 2011)

3,250 yards

30 TDs

12 INTs

is a 155.04 PER.



Those would actually be somewhat low when it comes to passing attempts/completions under Bronco.



Max Hall completed 298, 330 and 275 in his three years and attempted 496, 477 and 409.

John Beck completed 331 and 289 in his two Bronco years and attempted 513 and 417.

hawkwing wrote:
Predicting that a non senior qb will not hit expectations of senior BYU qbs is bold? I call that a sure thing.

My iPhone needs a TIC button. Totally agree.



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