2012 Football Odds

Oddsmakers set odds to draw bets. BYU always has screwy odds because typically Mormon's don't gamble. You'll see the odds shrink as the games approach.

So by those early lines, BYU is essentially even with Utah and Georgia Tech since home field is usually worth two-three points.



And we're actually pretty close to Boise and ND. I do think that Boise and GT are going to be our two toughest games.

Spiff, I'm curious about your rationale. I'm guessing you feel bsu is tougher bc you estimate utahs offense to be poor again? I would think that bsu is rebuilding offensively. I would also think that utahs D is improved over last year and they shut us down, well jake. But my sense is Utah would beat bsu. Therefore Utah, at home and in the possibly final rivalry match, will much tougher.

dmcougar wrote:
I would also think that utahs D is improved over last year and they shut us down, well jake.

Yes, Jake won't be there to snap the ball over the QB's head into the endzone, fumble the ball on the goal line, or fumble on the 50, all in the first 3 possessions. We should start out much better in the rivalry game this year. Hopefully his replacement won't also fumble a kickoff or give up a QB sack fumble for a touchdown this year.



Atleast the defense won't be giving up 40 yards and TD's on up the middle handoff's now that Jake is gone as well.



Although, if you take away all of those plays other than the fumble at the 50 it's only a 42 point swing so we still would have lost by 2 if Jake wasn't playing. Too bad he wasn't responsible for the blown coverages over the DB's or we could have won that game with Riley in.



(Sorry DM, the anti-Heaps sentiment on CC just drives me crazy. Sorry, Mars, don't mean to take over your thread.)

dmcougar wrote:
Spiff, I'm curious about your rationale. I'm guessing you feel bsu is tougher bc you estimate utahs offense to be poor again? I would think that bsu is rebuilding offensively. I would also think that utahs D is improved over last year and they shut us down, well jake. But my sense is Utah would beat bsu. Therefore Utah, at home and in the possibly final rivalry match, will much tougher.

I think Boise will be very tough. We're playing them on a short week after a potentially very emotional game. They're going to have very talented kids, who by the time we play them will have a few games under their belt.



I think Utah's offense is going to be very anemic next year and it is going to take many games for Brian Johnson to figure out how to be an offensive coordinator. I think their defense is going to be on the field a ton and going to be defending a lot of short fields and they won't win many field position battles.



I think a very long road trip to Atlanta for the Georgia Tech game is daunting. GT does run the option, which Bronco traditionally has defended very well (2010 notwithstanding, as that was Jamie Hill's gameplan and he was fired shortly thereafter). But GT has WRs Air Force could never dream of.



For whatever reason, ND doesn't scare me.

Mars wrote:


http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2012/6/6/3068587/projected-odds-for-2012-byu-fb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The odds:

13.5 over Washington State

35 over Weber State

3 underdog to Utah

7 underdog to Boise State

28 over Hawai'i

17 over Utah State

13 over Oregon State

5 underdog to Notre Dame

2.5 underdog to Georgia Tech

31 over Idaho

17.5 over San Jose State

26 over New Mexico State



Funny thing? I would bet against BYU in every one of these spreads, except for Idaho and NMSU.

Agree. I have been saying for several months that we will lose to UT, BSU, GT and ND. Nothing has happened to change my position and I think I lose the bet, even if I take BYU and the pts. We won't cover on any of those.



This year will be the year that most fans finally accept that Bronco can't get it done against Utah when they destroy us again.



I think I am going to puke now. :sick:

Stirfry wrote:

I would also think that utahs D is improved over last year and they shut us down, well jake.

Yes, Jake won't be there to snap the ball over the QB's head into the endzone, fumble the ball on the goal line, or fumble on the 50, all in the first 3 possessions. We should start out much better in the rivalry game this year. Hopefully his replacement won't also fumble a kickoff or give up a QB sack fumble for a touchdown this year.



Atleast the defense won't be giving up 40 yards and TD's on up the middle handoff's now that Jake is gone as well.



Although, if you take away all of those plays other than the fumble at the 50 it's only a 42 point swing so we still would have lost by 2 if Jake wasn't playing. Too bad he wasn't responsible for the blown coverages over the DB's or we could have won that game with Riley in.



(Sorry DM, the anti-Heaps sentiment on CC just drives me crazy. Sorry, Mars, don't mean to take over your thread.)

You're right on all of this, but then I remember his tryout for the gymnastics team in the endzone. I won't ever recover from having to see that.

northerncougar wrote:

http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2012/6/6/3068587/projected-odds-for-2012-byu-fb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The odds:

13.5 over Washington State

35 over Weber State

3 underdog to Utah

7 underdog to Boise State

28 over Hawai'i

17 over Utah State

13 over Oregon State

5 underdog to Notre Dame

2.5 underdog to Georgia Tech

31 over Idaho

17.5 over San Jose State

26 over New Mexico State



Funny thing? I would bet against BYU in every one of these spreads, except for Idaho and NMSU.

Agree. I have been saying for several months that we will lose to UT, BSU, GT and ND. Nothing has happened to change my position and I think I lose the bet, even if I take BYU and the pts. We won't cover on any of those.



This year will be the year that most fans finally accept that Bronco can't get it done against Utah when they destroy us again.



I think I am going to puke now. :sick:

Someone bring NCoug a glass of kool-aid!

SpiffCoug wrote:

Spiff, I'm curious about your rationale. I'm guessing you feel bsu is tougher bc you estimate utahs offense to be poor again? I would think that bsu is rebuilding offensively. I would also think that utahs D is improved over last year and they shut us down, well jake. But my sense is Utah would beat bsu. Therefore Utah, at home and in the possibly final rivalry match, will much tougher.

I think Boise will be very tough. We're playing them on a short week after a potentially very emotional game. They're going to have very talented kids, who by the time we play them will have a few games under their belt.



I think Utah's offense is going to be very anemic next year and it is going to take many games for Brian Johnson to figure out how to be an offensive coordinator. I think their defense is going to be on the field a ton and going to be defending a lot of short fields and they won't win many field position battles.



I think a very long road trip to Atlanta for the Georgia Tech game is daunting. GT does run the option, which Bronco traditionally has defended very well (2010 notwithstanding, as that was Jamie Hill's gameplan and he was fired shortly thereafter). But GT has WRs Air Force could never dream of.



For whatever reason, ND doesn't scare me.

Me thinks you are in Denial about ND. I see it this way. Four teams will start the season favored to beat us in our road games. If we lose any at home, those will be upsets. That could happen, because upsets happen. We hope not. But, on the other hand we are hoping to win by upset 4 times on the road.



Odds are odds. Upset a few. Get upset a few. This is a 4-Loss regular season schedule. Hopefully, we overachieve. If we end up with QB issues early - 6 loss regular season.



We will be competitive in every game if we do not have QB injury issues. ND will lose more games than BYU if that is the case - but beat BYU because they play a ridiculous schedule, again. I think we will beat Utah. BSU is an unknown for me. GT is a road trip we should not have scheduled. Call it East Cosst Bias or Rocky Mountain Naiveté, but ND, GT, BSU, U, OSU, WSU, USU, UH, in that sequence for level of difficulty, followed by SJSU, NMSU, and Idaho, and the other WSU.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

mizzoucoug wrote:

Mars wrote:


http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2012/6/6/3068587/projected-odds-for-2012-byu-fb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The odds:

13.5 over Washington State

35 over Weber State

3 underdog to Utah

7 underdog to Boise State

28 over Hawai'i

17 over Utah State

13 over Oregon State

5 underdog to Notre Dame

2.5 underdog to Georgia Tech

31 over Idaho

17.5 over San Jose State

26 over New Mexico State



Funny thing? I would bet against BYU in every one of these spreads, except for Idaho and NMSU.

Agree. I have been saying for several months that we will lose to UT, BSU, GT and ND. Nothing has happened to change my position and I think I lose the bet, even if I take BYU and the pts. We won't cover on any of those.



This year will be the year that most fans finally accept that Bronco can't get it done against Utah when they destroy us again.



I think I am going to puke now. :sick:

Someone bring NCoug a glass of kool-aid!

I need it bad.

So, does BYU hold any chance for a BCS invite this year with an 11-1 record? How much would it matter who that loss is against?



Notre Dame plays AT USC, Oklahoma, and Michigan St. this year and will have tough home games against Michigan, Stanford, and us. BC, Miami, Pitt, and Navy aren't pushovers either. So, I figure Notre Dame will have at least 3 losses, probably more. A loss to the Irish would hurt.



Georgia Tech get Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Clemson on the road. Ouch. Plus, Maryland and UNC. I see at least 5 wins on their schedule, but 5 or 6 losses isn't out of the question. A loss would hurt.



Boise State starts on the road at Michigan St. Sorry, not expecting a "W" there. Without TCU, they should roll through the MWC, but they do make their first trip to Laramie against an improving Wyoming team and finish at Nevada...I hope they have a new kicker. If Boise State finishes with 10 wins and a MWC title, I think a loss to the Broncos doesn't end our hopes.



Utah actually avoids both Oregon and Stanford this year, so they have a chance to finish with a decent record. Plus, they get USC and Cal (probably their two toughest PAC 12 games) and us at HOME. But ASU and Washington road games will not be easy....and don't overlook the Rocky Mountain Rumble or whatever they call it (cough, choke, cough)...you saw what happened last year. The Ewetes would be the best "loss", if they finish in second place in the PAC 12 South. This is especially true considering we play them in September. That could still give us time to climb the polls. But really, I hope Utah ends up in the Las Vegas Bowl...if they have a 6-win season.

Utah shut down Nelson last year, too.



3 for 6 20 yards, with a sack and a fumble returned for a 40 yard TD. 103 PER

BlueIsBetter wrote:
Utah shut down Nelson last year, too.



3 for 6 20 yards, with a sack and a fumble returned for a 40 yard TD. 103 PER

PLEASE DON'T START THE RN & HEAPS FIGHT AGAIN! He is gone, it doesn't matter who did what last year. Let's just look forward to RN playing well and if he doesn't or gets hurt maybe Lark will have some 20 year anniversary magic of Ryan Hancock coming in and tearing it up!



I don't find ND to be scary either, they have been so overrated the last 8 years. They beat us in '05 but come I don't place much emphasis on that game because Watkins dropped 4 or 5 almost sure TD's and we had Chris Hale playing corner. I worry about GT more than anything because of their style of play. Granted we usually do well against the option under Bronco, but their execution is incredible and they run the option with guys who are just a bit faster than the option guys at AF.

YNot wrote:
The Ewetes would be the best "loss", if they finish in second place in the PAC 12 South. This is especially true considering we play them in September. That could still give us time to climb the polls.

This website has Utah at just that- 10-2 (7-2, 2nd in PAC South)



http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/06/pac-12-point-spread-projections-oregon-usc-on-collision-course-for-mammoth-title-game/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

MTM wrote:

The Ewetes would be the best "loss", if they finish in second place in the PAC 12 South. This is especially true considering we play them in September. That could still give us time to climb the polls.

This website has Utah at just that- 10-2 (7-2, 2nd in PAC South)



http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/06/pac-12-point-spread-projections-oregon-usc-on-collision-course-for-mammoth-title-game/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll be VERY surprised if the Utes win 10 games.

They'll be lucky to win more than 8.



Here are the games I think they can lose:

@ Utah St

vs BYU

vs USC

@ UCLA or @ Oregon ST

@ Washington

I didn't bring up Heaps in this thread. Others did. I was just pointing out that RN sucked against the Utes last year. So if you suspect him to do well this year, you have little to no basis to go on.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
I didn't bring up Heaps in this thread. Others did. I was just pointing out that RN sucked against the Utes last year. So if you suspect him to do well this year, you have little to no basis to go on.

The only positive you might be able to draw form Riley's play against Utah was that after being stripped/blind sided (I can't remember which it was) and fumbling the football, he got up and ran his hardest to try and track down the stinking Ute who wound up scoring. That was the most effort we saw on a defensive type of play by any Cougar in the 2nd half of that game.



But even that is a bit of a stretch.



There's very little positive for BYU to draw from that game. The Cougars quit in that game and deserved to get pounded.

SpiffCoug wrote:

YNot wrote:
The Ewetes would be the best "loss", if they finish in second place in the PAC 12 South. This is especially true considering we play them in September. That could still give us time to climb the polls.

This website has Utah at just that- 10-2 (7-2, 2nd in PAC South)



http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/06/pac-12-point-spread-projections-oregon-usc-on-collision-course-for-mammoth-title-game/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll be VERY surprised if the Utes win 10 games.

They'll be lucky to win more than 8.



Here are the games I think they can lose:

@ Utah St

vs BYU

vs USC

@ UCLA or @ Oregon ST

@ Washington

The site I referenced has them as underdogs to USC and UW.

I don't know what to expect. There is only 1 gimmie on their schedule.

The PAC is crazy in terms of anybody can beat anybody. Utah essentially had the same result vs. the best and worst team in the conference. The whole season seemed to be Team A clobbers Team B who clobbers Team C who clobbers Team A.

Utah also received a 95 Overall Rating on EA Sports NCAA '13!

Whatever that means. I've never even played the game but Block U thinks it's noteworthy.

http://www.blocku.com/2012/6/7/3071254/utes-surprisingly-receive-a-95-overall-rating-in-ncaa-13" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

:roll: