Would Jabari be enough to make us title contenders?

The longer we stay in the mix for Jabari, the more I have hope for a miracle :). Other schools have stronger basketball credentials, but we have a uniqueness that clearly appeals to him.



However, he has said that a national title is important to him. So I started thinking about our ability to win a national title if we had Jabari and was curious if anyone has ever won the title with only 1 bonafide NBA player on their roster.



I researched it back to 1980, and found some interesting numbers.



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The average number of NBA players per title team has risen from 4 in the 80's, to 4.5 in the 90's, to now 5 in the 2000's (in part to the HS rule) and Kentucky has 6 guys that should be drafted this month. I'm defining NBA players as anyone who made a roster and played in a regular season game, so obviously there's a wide range from a guy like Keith Smart (2 games) to Ewing, MJ, Carmelo, etc.



But of those 30 title teams from 1980 to 2010 (Duke, UConn, and Kentucky are still TBD), here's the breakdown...



2 NBA players - 2 teams (Melo and Warrick's Syracuse and Manning's Kansas)

3 NBA players - 5 teams

4 NBA players - 8 teams

5 NBA players - 6 teams

6 NBA players - 7 teams

7 NBA players - 1 team (2004 UConn)

8 NBA players - 1 team (Mark Pope's 1995 Kentucky! :))



What this tells me is HALF of the last 30 champions have an entire starting 5 made up of NBA players. And nearly 3/4 of teams have 4 or more, with NO teams winning it all with only 1 NBA player.



Granted we've had some teams threaten to win without being NBA stacked (Butler post-Hayward, VCU, George Mason), but the fact is that the teams who ultimately won it all had multiple pro athletes. I should also mention many of these teams had multiple supporting cast guys who were drafted but didn't make it, or played overseas.



Now let's look at the projected starting 5 in Jabari's theoretical 1 season in college, with their NBA odds to the right. I used a scientific process called pulling stuff out of my rear end to guess their NBA odds (who really knows, but none of them are currently on draft boards).



PG - Matt Carlino - 25% (if we can develop as a shooter/distributer, it's possible)

SG - Tyler Haws - 25% (reminds me of Casey Jacobsen, who found a short niche in the league)

SF - Kyle Collinsworth - 10% (could be a great college player, don't think he has the quicks or the stroke to make the league)

PF - Jabari Parker - 100%

C - Nate Austin - 10%



BENCH

PG - Nick Emery - 25% (currently #49 in HS which doesn't project to top 60 in a given draft year, but could develop as a mega-star like Jimmer)

SG - Winder, Delgado - less than 5%

SF - Ambrosino, Sharp - less than 5%

PF/C - Harward, Nielson, Collinsworth - 5 to 10% (Nielson at 7'2" could have a chance down the line)



Our guard lineup projects to be a GREAT college lineup (Carlino, Haws, KC, Emery, Delgado, and Winder) but none of those guys are surefire bets to make the NBA. Our post lineup is a bit more of a crapshoot at this point. CC would be solid if healthy, and Austin/Harward/Sharp/Nielson/Ambrosino are a mixed bag that may or may not be solid college players.



With Jabari, I definitely think this is a top 10 team knocking on the door of the Final 4. But based on recent history (33 years), where EVERY team had at least 2 NBA players, I'm not sure if he would be enough for us to take it all. We would eventually struggle against one of the teams with a stockpile of talent and/or one player that could neutralize Jabari (like Kentucky, who will get #2, #10, #22, etc.).



Thoughts? Think any of our guys have more NBA potential than I'm recognizing?



One last comment...I think if Jabari could somehow stay 2 years, we'd have a shot that year. KC would be post-mission legs, Carlino/Haws would be seniors, our bigs would have experience, and we'd send Emery to a mission but could potentially land a top flight recruit in 2014 and we'd have TJ Haws and Harrison joining on the wing. That squad, with two years playing together, would be incredible to watch.



With or without Jabari, that season will be really fun to watch.

Yes.

Gee thanks Spiff ;).



Guess the subject line was actually a poor question, because we were "contenders" even with Jimmer, and with this roster certainly we'd be in the top 10 discussions pre-season so we'd be "contenders" as well.



Better question would be how realistic is it that we could win a title with Jabari?



I still think it's a long shot, but if one of our guards emerges as an NBA-level star, then it's within the realm of feasibility.

Now factor in JP serving a mission. Or could a player two delay the mission for a year to contend for the title. I realize that could hurt the team down the line but it would be worth it if we could win one.

There is also a difference between a Freshman one and done future NBA player and Junior/Senior future NBA player. As good as Jabari will likely be, he will NOT be able to provide the leadership that a Jimmer or Emery or Hartsock provided. Jabari needs Senior leadership to go along with his skills.



I can't put my finger on anyone who will be there this year who will be that mature team leader. If I am Jabari, I am watching to see if one or two players can step up with Hartsock gone to be the mature, motivating, calming presence on the team for the next year. If Jabari had an Emery or Hartsock to play with, or even Davies, I would say 100% definitely a contender, but odds again would depend on the strength of the teams that year.



With Davies, BYU very well could have won it all two years ago, in a very weak year in the NCAAs. The weak quality of play made that possible. BYU had a golden opportunity and it went out the window with Davies. We all knew it and know it. Jabari needs a mature team leader, a solid big, 2 shooters and 2 play makers. We have the potential for all of this now, but only this next year of play will determine if we have ENOUGH to entice Jabari over.

We would have won a title 2 years ago if Davies could have kept it in his pants. With Parker, Davies, Haws, Emery, and Carlino, I would be surprised if we don't go 3 or 4 rounds deep in the tourney.

I think Rose and Pope give us our best chance at an NC. :crazy:

assuming Parker is one and done the answer is no- he is not going to be a 20/pts a game freshman - he's a good ball player, and a better person, but he doesn't have greg oden type of size, derrick rose type of speed, he's not lebron or kobe, etc. He's just a very well rounded player



I think if he's one and done; then he's not a Cougar anyhow



However, the hypothetical question of whether or not with Jabari as a freshman we are championship caliber, to me, is completely based on how good Nate Austin, Ian Harward, and Isaac Nielsen are by that point.



If those guys put on weight, pick up some post moves, and can show that they're at least european caliber pros, then I say yes, we'll be contenders. From the video I've seen, I believe that Nielson might end up as the best big man we've had since Russell Larson., I'm just not sure that he'll be ready when and if Jabari is a frosh at BYU.

On a side note, I think you're not giving enough credit to Raul Delgado, who might be quite a player

Has anyone actually seen a quote or a source which confirms he is leaning toward a one and done?

The more I think about this kid, the more I wonder if he isn't a lot like Tim Duncan, in a way, more than A Derrick Rose. Not in the position sense, but more in the "I'll take a few and maybe four years and prep and get ready for all the money, pressure, NBA level. He s not a kid, like many who just want to earn the money, e has nt come from poverty.



Makes me wonder. Especially considering his uncle, iirc, that said don't rule out a mission. Doesn't seem like a kid in a hurry to get to the NBA.

Not to leave out that Tim D went to a less than elite ACC alternative in Wake Forrest. Not that BYU is a Wake Forrest, but they werent a Duke or North Carlolina.

dmcougar wrote:
Not to leave out that Tim D went to a less than elite ACC alternative in Wake Forrest. Not that BYU is a Wake Forrest, but they werent a Duke or North Carlolina.

http://statsheet.com/bhsb/mcplayers_by_college" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



In retrospect, I'm sure Tim Duncan should have been one of the most sought out recruits in the country, but I don't think he was even a McDonalds all american and he was certainly not considered the #1 recruit in the country like Parker is.



http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/wake-forest/recruiting#mcdonalds" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The comparison just doesn't fit due to the amount of hype surrounding Parker.



That being said, there's a better chance that Parker is a bust in the NBA than going down in history as good as Tim Duncan, simply because there have been many more busts than guys that have had the type of career of a guy like Timmy. (here's hoping Parker lives up to the hype in his pro career.... I'm not sure he will, I just don't see a world class athlete when I watch Parker play; I see an incredibly well rounded player with good size and a great IQ, but a marginal athletic skill set when compared to NBA players.)