The biggest impediment to being drafted

I've run the numbers for athletes at the top 3 Utah schools and discovered the biggest impediment to being drafted. Serving an LDS mission.



Since the 2010 draft, 14 football players from Utah schools have been drafted. Only 2 of them have been RMs. Go back to 2009 and we have 20 football draftees and 4 returned missionaries.

Interesting theory. I have been working another theory. Of the the 20 players drafted from Utah schools since 2009, 19 of them have been good.



In all seriousness though, do you know how many of those State of Utah draftees were LDS?



I don't doubt that serving a mission and being older when you go to the NFL doesn't make your draft stock fall, sometimes enough to take you out of the draft, but good players are good players and they tend to find a way into the draft.



McKay Jacobson's problem wasn't that he was an RM, it was that he couldn't catch the ball and gave up on routes. Matt Reynolds problem was that he didn't exactly stone wall guys. Even on the bowl game play when Reynolds blocked the guy without a helmet it was after a fizzled chop block attempt. If you are 1st round talent you aren't going to be chop blocking because you are so good at regular blocking.

If you have 2 guys who have the same skill set, and the same measurables, as an NFL GM I'm going to take the younger one every single time. The older guy either has to stand out in some way or have some crazy immeasurables to move him above a younger, just as capable athlete.

Interesting theory.. how about a little more explanation of your methods to convince us. This should be a class project for a BYU statistics major (although the results apparently might be a little controversial for BYU). 4 out of 20 draftees are RMs.. 20% actually doesn't seem like a bad number. My question is, dating back to 2009 at those same schools, what percentage of UNdrafted football players are returned missionaries? I would guess it'd be lower than 20%, No?



That said, having served in a tropical 3rd world country, I honestly can't see how a player could return to their prior athletic level within a reasonable time frame.

hawkwing wrote:
If you have 2 guys who have the same skill set, and the same measurables, as an NFL GM I'm going to take the younger one every single time. The older guy either has to stand out in some way or have some crazy immeasurables to move him above a younger, just as capable athlete.

Yeah I agree. It takes someone who may be a 1st or 2nd rounder and bumps them to a 3rd or 4th rounder, and I think a lot of BYU guys who would have gone in the 4th or 5th and it bumps them right out of the draft.



Still, I don't care how good my son might be, I am still advising him to go on a mission.



Sorry for my earlier response. It just seemed like there were a bunch of threads trying to explain why BYU didn't get anyone drafted, but I think the simplest explanation is that they haven't been that good.

Here's an idea, going off my 10,000 hour theme.



RMs come back and spend less time playing football then they did before their mission. They've gone two years without playing and then don't put in the time the did, focusing more on school, marriage, etc. That's a lot of hours lost. So, compared to other D1 seniors, they've spent less time playing football and consequently aren't as "good."



The RMs that have been drafted out of BYU, Collie in particular, were work fiends. They spent a ton of time working and "caught" up. Realize Collie did get married, but the point is he kept devoted and no-one worked harder than Collie.



I do agree if given two of the same player, but one slightly younger an NFL team is going to go with the younger 9 times out of 10. Our guys, though, aren't at the same level. Plain and simple.

I think someone already addressed this, but how many guys drafted from utah schools actually were eligible (LDS) to serve missions?

Gunk wrote:
Here's an idea, going off my 10,000 hour theme.



RMs come back and spend less time playing football then they did before their mission. They've gone two years without playing and then don't put in the time the did, focusing more on school, marriage, etc. That's a lot of hours lost. So, compared to other D1 seniors, they've spent less time playing football and consequently aren't as "good."



The RMs that have been drafted out of BYU, Collie in particular, were work fiends. They spent a ton of time working and "caught" up. Realize Collie did get married, but the point is he kept devoted and no-one worked harder than Collie.

I would go with this. The priority thing comes up a lot, but it's true. The guy who is dedicated to his church calling, and has a wife and probably a small child or too just won't be able to spend the same amount of hours on football as someone without those things.



It certainly can be done if you are truly dedicated to football and the NFL is your absolute professional goal, but it doesn't surprise me at all that the percentages won't be as high as non RM or non mormon players.



As far as the stats go, you'd need to get the percentage of the total number of RM's that have played in college that got drafted and compare that to non RM players.

tmoney35 wrote:

Here's an idea, going off my 10,000 hour theme.



RMs come back and spend less time playing football then they did before their mission. They've gone two years without playing and then don't put in the time the did, focusing more on school, marriage, etc. That's a lot of hours lost. So, compared to other D1 seniors, they've spent less time playing football and consequently aren't as "good."



The RMs that have been drafted out of BYU, Collie in particular, were work fiends. They spent a ton of time working and "caught" up. Realize Collie did get married, but the point is he kept devoted and no-one worked harder than Collie.

I would go with this. The priority thing comes up a lot, but it's true. The guy who is dedicated to his church calling, and has a wife and probably a small child or too just won't be able to spend the same amount of hours on football as someone without those things.



It certainly can be done if you are truly dedicated to football and the NFL is your absolute professional goal, but it doesn't surprise me at all that the percentages won't be as high as non RM or non mormon players.



As far as the stats go, you'd need to get the percentage of the total number of RM's that have played in college that got drafted and compare that to non RM players.

Lenny Gomes is that you? :P

To do the study right, you'd have to devote a lot of time to finding out about all the LDS athletes across the country, and then compare those that do and don't go on missions. I'm not going to do that, but I think it plays a major role in draft stock getting bumped down.



Which is not to say I'm making excuses for Bronco, but I think it's a legitimate concern and point to make when talking about BYU's draft prospects.

Yes to all of this as far as the "skillset" positions go: RB, WR, DB maybe even TE.



As far as QB, LB, safety, and especially both line positions, 23 or 24 is a very good age for a player. Nobody not named Suh is fully developed athletically before age 20 or 21 on the line.



I think that Isola is right on, these guys just haven't been that good. Max Hall is an amazing qb, he's just not an NFL qb. Nor is beck. Nor is Unga. Nor is Kehl an everydown linebacker, nor Nixon, etc etc etc. And lately, they have been even worse.



If there is one thing that the NFL does right, it is not missing on talent. You don't hear very much about a 7th rounder coming in and killing it in the league. Or the undrafted guy taking everyone by storm. It happens, but not very often at all.



I think we just don't have NFL starter caliber beyond Collie and Pitta, and possibly a healthy Harvey. And that shows on the field. We are getting blown out by teams that we shouldn't be, and we are getting close games from teams that have no business being close to us.



Now is that because we aren't getting the guys in the program, or is it because they aren't developing? I think it is a little of both. I question the developing and the strength and conditioning, primarily.

They told me I didn't make it because I was a slow white guy and not athletic.



For most positions - you do not get drafted if you are white. Run those numbers.

There are approximately 230 people drafted into the NFL every year (a little over or under depending on compensatory picks and/or supplemental draft players). That sounds like a lot, but in reality it's less than what three D-1 football teams have under scholarship at any one time.



While I don't disagree with the premise that older players on average are at a disadvantage, and thus RM's are disadvantaged, I think there are more factors that are at least equally as important as age.



1. Talent-talent trumps everything. Top 50 recruiting classes (of which BYU has had 2 in the last decade) produce better players, better teams, better NFL prospects, etc.



2. Coaching ties to the NFL. Why during the dark years of Crowton were 3 to 5 players being drafted into the NFL every year? Partially, it was due to better talent (thanks to Lavell before he stopped landing better recruiting classes his last 2 years), but more importantly it was obvious Crowton had some good ties to the NFL from his time with the Bears and knew what player personnel people wanted to see on tape.



3. Level of competition. This isn't to say that players from teams that play bad schedules (BSU, TCU and U of U recently) don't get players drafted, but as an individual you need to dominate against lessor opponents on almost every play, and then make an impact in the few chances you get against "superior" competition. Reynolds specifically only looked ok against less talented people, and didn't make a big enough impact in the big games.



4. Lack of competition for your spot. At schools that do not bring in the big recruiting classes every year, the best players are never really pushed for their spot. Also, it seems a little more ingrained at BYU that upper-classmen get preferential treatment, even if there are more talented, younger players that could be playing (KVN didn't start a game until Frazier got hurt last year, and he was the best player on the field all year for BYU; and don't get me started on our boneheaded safety from last year). This lack of competition leads to complacency.



Those are at least 4 reasons that I feel are bigger than being an RM when it comes to draft stock.

I think it is a combination of things. I really liked stuckinbig10country's post. However, I'm not sure that there was a lack of competition for playing time as a general rule. That may have explained Reynolds, but that is the exception.



Definitely talent trumps all and so does coaching and coaching connections.



I would add that the NFL is a different league than it was 10 or 15 years ago. It's a pass happy league which requires explosive WRs of which BYU has had 2 and they both made it to the NFL. It also requires outstanding CBs of which BYU has had the best midget CBs in the country, but certainly not remotely close to NFL caliber. The NFL wants guys that can rush the passer of which BYU has had two players in the Bronco era that could do that against virtually anybody (Kehl and Van Noy) and guys that can block those pass rushers. Go look at our OL against virtually any athletic defense and watch how they get owned.



But missions are a big, big deal. I don't see any athletic advantage to missionary service and often those guys do not come back with the same gear they had before.