Bubble Talk-Post WCC tourney

Two teams noted in ESPN's bubble talk played today. Eamonn Brennan noted both as somewhat longshots as far as At-Large consideration (info as of 2 Mar):



Virginia Commonwealth [25-6 (15-3), RPI: 61, SOS: 233] Shaka Smart's team punctuated a better-than-expected Colonial run with its season-ending home victory over George Mason. The win moved VCU to 15-3 in the CAA. What does that mean? Very little, tourney-wise. Even if the committee did take a gander at the conference record, it'll be aware that it came against a league that went 0-7 against the RPI top 25 and 3-5 against teams ranked between 25-50 in the metric, with two of those wins (and VCU's only "signature victory," if you want to call it that) coming against South Florida. With marginal computer numbers like these, it seems like the Rams might have to go very deep in the CAA tournament to seal a bid.



VS.



Drexel [25-5 (16-2), RPI: 64, SOS: 271] Drexel likewise topped off its impressive CAA run Saturday, holding on for a one-point win at Old Dominion and winning the outright Colonial regular-season title in the process. It's impossible to ignore how well this team has played over the past two months, in which it won 23 of its past 24 games. Forget league RPI and collective top wins; no matter how you qualify it, that run is impressive. But will it be good enough? This is still a team with an 0-1 record against the RPI top 50 (no top-50 wins is bad enough, but this few top-50 games is another problem entirely), a near-70 RPI and plus-200 marks in both overall and nonconference SOS. How the committee handles the Dragons -- and, for that matter, the CAA in general -- will be one of the bubble's most fascinating ongoing stories.



CAA Championship

VCU 59

Drexel 56



I would imagine that puts Drexel out of Dance consideration. Hopefully

If you are interested in knowing some of the basics of how teams, other than non-automatic qualifiers, are picked for the NCAA Tournament, watch today's True Blue on BYUtv. WCC's Jamie Zaninovich explained how they begin the process by picking the top teams that are in no matter what they do by the end of this week. They are the locks. I'll have to listen again as I was being interupted while it was on. He talked about how they continue to vote, maintaining their next 8 teams and when a team accumulates so many points, they are in and added to the field. This is done until the entire field is full.

Iona, a bubble team from the MAAC, lost in a quarterfinal, and didn't reach the championship of their tournament. Here was ESPN's evaluation at their bubble resume:



Iona [24-6 (15-3), RPI: 39, SOS: 160] On Sunday, the Gaels finished their stellar Metro Atlantic season with a 98-61 thrashing of St. Peter's, which came just two days after a solid home win over Fairfield. There isn't much in the way of big wins here -- and Iona lost its only chance at a top-50 win against Purdue all the way back at the Puerto Rico Tip-Off -- but the RPI and solid nonconference SOS will definitely keep this team in the hunt if something goes awry in the MAAC tournament this weekend. Plus, now that Iona has mostly handled business, do we really want to keep Scott Machado out of the tournament?



Loyola (MD) 24-8 gets the MAAC automatic bid. I hope Eammon's comment that Iona's RPI will keep this team in the hunt for a bid is groundless. Yes, we want to keep Scott Machado out of the tournament at this point. I have to believe that Iona fell from the Dance, but these are exactly the kind of situations that you don't want to see this week if you are BYU. I hope this is not a trend this week.

Creighton avoided the upset bid of Illinois St Sunday to take the MVC tournament championship and win the automatic bid 83-79. Those are the scenarios we want to see. Had Illinois St. eeked out the win, then the MWC would have probably cost one of the At-Large bids

Middle Tennessee, a bubble team, and Sun Belt Conference #1 lost their tournament quarterfinal game over the weekend to #9 seed Arkansas St, and hopefully are now out of the Dance. Brennan's evaluation as of 2 March of MTS:



Middle Tennessee [25-5 (14-2), RPI: 48, SOS: 207] Needless to say, last Saturday's loss at Western Kentucky -- whose RPI is down in that unsightly sub-200 range -- was not what the doctor ordered. The specter of a one-game overreaction applies to most teams, but mid-majors with decent but not overwhelming profiles (like, say, MTSU), have little to no margin for error. As of now, the RPI isn't quite strong enough to overcome the concerns about strength of schedule, or the 3-3 record against the RPI top 100, or the lack of wins better than Akron and Belmont. At this point, winning the Sun Belt tournament might be the safest, least stressful path. And arguably the only one.