Bubble Madness

That door, if we don't win the WCC, inched a little closer shut last night. There were several teams that have been on, or near, the bubble that had significant action last night. They were, in order of their ESPN reported RPI as of Tuesday (games involving Top 25 teams are in bold):



Colorado State [17-10 (6-6), RPI: 25, SOS: 4]

Won @ home, UNLV 66-59 (5-5 over last 10)



Connecticut [17-11 (7-9), RPI: 30, SOS: 1]

Lost @ Providence 72-70 (2-8 over last 10)



Long Beach State [21-7 (14-0), RPI: 36, SOS: 97]

Won @ home, UCI 77-50 (9-1 over last 10)



Northwestern [17-11 (7-9), RPI: 40, SOS: 9]

Lost @ home, OSU 75-73 (5-5 over last 10)



South Florida [18-11 (11-5), RPI: 46, SOS: 33]

Won @ Louisville 58-51 (7-3 over last 10)



Miami (FL) [17-10 (8-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 38]

Lost @ NC State 77-73 (6-4 over last 10)



Saint Joseph's [19-11 (9-6), RPI: 51, SOS: 31]

Lost @ St.Bon, 98-93 OT (6-4 over last 10)



Xavier [18-10 (9-5), RPI: 54, SOS: 52]

Lost @ St.L, 70-59 (5-5 over last 10)



Texas [18-11 (8-8), RPI: 55, SOS: 29]

Won @ home, OU 72-64 (6-4 over last 10)



UCF [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 60, SOS: 115]

Lost @ Memphis, 84-55 (5-5 over last 10)



Dayton [18-10 (8-6), RPI: 61, SOS: 54]

Lost @ Rich, 82-71 (4-6 over last 10)



Mississippi State [19-10 (6-8), RPI: 63, SOS: 68]

Won @ SCAR 69-67 OT (4-6 over last 10)



Cincinnati [20-9 (10-6), RPI: 76, SOS: 132]

Won @ home, Marquette 72-61 (6-4 over last 10)



CSU, USFL, & Cincinnati made major strides last night.



Connecticut, Northwestern, Miami, St. Joe, Xavier, UCF, & Dayton all shot themselves in the foot this week and would probably need a deep run into their conferences to be considered again.



I don't know what to think of CSU and the MWC, who most claim already have 3 teams locked. How can you turn down a team with CSU's RPI, SOS and wins over top-50 RPI teams? I just can't imagine the MWC with 4 teams in the dance. I think CSU can only kill their chance by a loss in the 1st round of the tournament, or someone not named NM, SDSU or UNLV winning the conference. Absolutely they will not, even if Marty Flectcher flaps his jowls, get five teams in the dance. Pigs will fly before that happens.



I still believe that 2 wins in the tourney has us in, but there is very little wiggle room. I don't believe if we don't beat Gonzaga Saturday that we'll make it. IMHO.

Here is the status of the other bubble, or near bubble teams:



Harvard [24-4 (10-2), RPI: 38, SOS: 205]

8-2 over last 10, lead conf by 0.5 w/ 2 games left



Iona [24-6 (15-3), RPI: 42, SOS: 155]

Reg season over, won championship (9-1 over last 10)



Seton Hall [19-10 (8-9), RPI: 43, SOS: 35]

4-5 over last 10



West Virginia [17-12 (7-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 8]

@ Depaul tonight (3-7 over last 10)



Brigham Young [24-7 (12-4), RPI: 49, SOS: 111]

8-2 over last 10, finished #3 seed in conf tourney



Middle Tennessee [25-5 (14-2), RPI: 50, SOS: 210]

7-3 over last 10, finished #1 seed in conf tourney



Oregon [20-8 (11-5), RPI: 52, SOS: 78]

7-3 over last 10, play @ home tonight vs. CO



Washington [20-8 (13-3), RPI: 53, SOS: 80]

9-1 over last 10, play @ USC tonight



Virginia Commonwealth [25-6 (15-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 235]

9-1 over last 10, finished #2 seed in conf tourney



Drexel [25-5 (16-2), RPI: 66, SOS: 270]

10-0 over last 10, finished #1 seed in conf tourney



Arizona [21-9 (12-5), RPI: 71, SOS: 110]

8-2 over last 10



Colorado [19-9 (11-5), RPI: 77, SOS: 95]

7-3 over last 10, play @ Ore tonight



I believe the strongest threat for an at-large bid is how the tourney committee is going to handle the PAC12. If Cal wins their tourney, Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Colorado all have plus-50 RPI's and no wins over top-50 RPI. I don't think they deserve, but I believe, to be honest, that there will still be 1-2 of those 4 teams in.

Oregon beat Colorado last night and Washington won as well. I'm still saying that there is a good chance that Cal, Oregon, & Washington all end up in the Dance. They all seem to be do well beating up against the other lame PUKE12 teams.