BYU Defense 2011: Inside the Numbers

The BYU defense was just as good as the nations's elite against like opponents in 2011.



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The only thing I would point out is when you take away points allowed off of turnovers to make the scoring average lower, you also need to do that with the teams you are comaparing with. What would Penn States scoring average look like if you take away their points scored off of turnovers? What would BYU's 2006 totals look like, or BYU's 1985? the 20pts per game is what it is, when you start making qualifications in order to make the number look better, it underscores the overall argument.

I like the comparison (I think it was Drc36 did) about how BYU held almost all their opponents below their season averages in most offensive categories.

frdbtr wrote:
The only thing I would point out is when you take away points allowed off of turnovers to make the scoring average lower, you also need to do that with the teams you are comaparing with. What would Penn States scoring average look like if you take away their points scored off of turnovers? What would BYU's 2006 totals look like, or BYU's 1985? the 20pts per game is what it is, when you start making qualifications in order to make the number look better, it underscores the overall argument.

You are right.



It was done because

1- I don't remember the offense having so many turnovers result directly in TDs (2011 team had 4, not to mention the five other turnovers that guaranteed at least a field goal attempt). The defense, literally, could do nothing to keep 28 points off the scoreboard.



2- To provide perspective, not to say the 2011 defense was as good as Penn State at preventing teams from scoring.

Then if U throw out the outliers like U - even better.



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You are right and it is fun to look at that. But for facts, it isn't realistic. You might as well say "throw away our 3 losses and we were undefeated". It is just a funny thing that I notice when it comes to statistical comparisons, people want to throw out bad statistics to make it look better overall. I enjoyed your article though. It was a good read and BYU had a very good defense last year. I expect that the better the secondary gets with Bronco calling the plays, the more aggressive he will get with his play calling and the more exciting the defense will get. We have been playing a bend/don't break defense due to lack of talent in the secondary, it will be interesting to see Bronco sending blitzes from all over the place again if the secondary can be trusted to lock down their guys.

I don't know if it matters or not, but in 2011, BYU scored 87 of their 391 points off of opponent turnovers. Our opponents scored 75 of their 265.



In 2010, it was BYU scoring 90 of 340 from turnovers and opponents 44 of 281.

In 2009, it was BYU scoing 129 of 461 from turnovers and opponents 60 of 280.

In 2008, it was BYU scoing 118 of 445 from turnovers and opponents 93 of 285.

In 2007, it was BYU scoing 69 of 391 from turnovers and opponents 61 of 241.

In 2006, it was BYU scoing 90 of 481 from turnovers and opponents 24 of 215.

In 2005, it was BYU scoing 17 of 396 from turnovers and opponents 20 of 351.

frdbtr wrote:
You are right and it is fun to look at that. But for facts, it isn't realistic. You might as well say "throw away our 3 losses and we were undefeated". It is just a funny thing that I notice when it comes to statistical comparisons, people want to throw out bad statistics to make it look better overall. I enjoyed your article though. It was a good read and BYU had a very good defense last year.

I am glad you liked the article, but I would like to clarify one point.



I don't think this counts as "throw out bad statistics to make it look better overall."



As the subject line reads, this is about the BYU DEFENSE in 2011. The only stat that was adjusted was the points per game. That was done for the sole reason to take into account the acutal points allowed by the BYU DEFENSE.



When Heaps or Nelson threw an interception for a touchdown, or fumbled and it was recovered for a touchdown, where was the defense? 100% of the defense was on the sideline. They could do ABOSLUTELY NOTHING to stop the other team from scoring those seven points.



Removing just the four turnovers retuned for TDs, opponents average ppg dropped to 18.3.



Now, I took it one step further. For just those turnovers that gave a team field position where they could line up and kick a field goal on first down if they wanted to, I credited the defense with three points. If the opponents kicked a field goal, the defense was assessed zero points. If the opponents scored a touchdown, the defense was assessed 4 points (unless the extra point was missed, then it was just 3).



Once again, that was done based on the premise that when Utah recovers the kickoff that JD Falslev had go through his hands at the goal line and bounce off his facemask the BYU DEFENSE was not on the field of play. Utah takes its first snap from chip shot field goal range. Why should the points from a field goal in that situation count against the DEFENSE?



The adjusted score did NOT rationalize away points saying they came in "garbage time," like the last minute touchdown against Oregon State, or that it was a "rare exception," like the 82-yard touchdown run by Idaho or the 79-yard touchdown pass by Hawaii.



Yes, the BYU TEAM allowed 20.4 points per game in 2011, there is nothing around that number, but the BYU DEFENSE did not allow all of those points.

SpiffCoug wrote:
I don't know if it matters or not, but in 2011, BYU scored 87 of their 391 points off of opponent turnovers. Our opponents scored 75 of their 265.



In 2010, it was BYU scoring 90 of 340 from turnovers and opponents 44 of 281.

In 2009, it was BYU scoing 129 of 461 from turnovers and opponents 60 of 280.

In 2008, it was BYU scoing 118 of 445 from turnovers and opponents 93 of 285.

In 2007, it was BYU scoing 69 of 391 from turnovers and opponents 61 of 241.

In 2006, it was BYU scoing 90 of 481 from turnovers and opponents 24 of 215.

In 2005, it was BYU scoing 17 of 396 from turnovers and opponents 20 of 351.

I appreciate the numbers, Spiff. It is interesting to note that only one of the last six seasons had a higher points off of turnovers than in 2011, and none of those other five years was even close. They are all 14 points or more (which is over 1 point per game).



Just to be clear, what I did went a step further. I didn't just look at points off of turnovers. My adjusted points per game only took into account points off of



1-turnovers that were returned for a touchdown, and

2-turnovers that placed an opponent in scoring position.



scoring position being defined as a team having the option of lining up on first down and kicking a field goal.



So when San Jose State drove over 90 yards and scored a touchdown following a BYU turnover, the defense was still accountable for those points off a turnover.