Bigfoot sighted on the campaign trail

Best (and funniest) ad of the primary season so far. Almost fell out of my seat laughing.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgNJBdTaKE8&feature=player_embedded

awesome.



I don't get the santorum craze, obama would crush him.

I love how Paul is serving as Mitt's foil--he's run his "attack" ads against Romney's leading rivals in the states where Romney needs them the most. That friendship between the two back in 2008 is really helping Romney.

I saw an interview with Ron Paul a few days ago. He absolutely denied working with Romney to attack Santorum. What's the truth? Who knows. But, Romney did win both Arizona and Michigan last night. Big Primary wins.



Doesn't this GOP Primary process seem like it's a very long & drawn out affair this time? Extra nasty too.

I don't think Romney and Paul have to be working in cahoots to be working together. I think Paul opposes Newt and Santorum as much for who they really are - career politicians who put ego and "team politics" above what is right and what they believe in.



He may not agree with Mitt, but he knows Mitt is a true executive and a businessman first who knows how to fix problems. He's not a career politician.

The reason Paul gives Mitt a pass now is three-fold. But it has nothing to do with being a businessman.



1) He has only been involved in state politics. The others have made incredibly stupid votes overstepping the bounds of the Constitution as congressmen.



2) He thinks he can beat Romney if the other two drop out.



3) Romney has been at least cordial to Paul.

2) is obviously not correct. Even Paul knows he has no chance to win at the convention, and clearly knows he has no chance against Obama.



Paul has been giving Romney a pass for 2 reasons, their wives are friends and Rand Paul desperately wants to be Romney's VP candidate.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Paul beating Obama in the general election 43% to 41%. Paul holds Obama to a lower vote total than any other Republican candidate. And that is with 17% of Republicans saying they wouldn't vote for Paul in the general (they are lying BTW).



If the no one wins a majority at the convention, I think Paul has a great chance to win the nomination. See snocythe's post about caucuses and delegates to see why. Rand Paul would be a sleeper pick at the convention if it gets brokered but I don't think he would accept the VP unless he was sure the Republicans wouldn't win (which would make him a front runner in 2016).



I think any of the three remaining candidates would beat Romney if the other two dropped out. Romney's negatives among voters in the Republican party are too high. He would have lost Michigan for if Newt weren't running. As it is he probably won't end up with a majority of delegates from Michigan anyway. And the entire Arizona delegation outside Mesa would ditch Romney after the first vote at a brokered convention.



Ron Paul himself has said the reason he hasn't attacked Romney as much is because he wants to be seen as the anti-Romney, anti-establishment candidate.



That said Ron Paul has had several ads like this one targeting Romney so I think Santorum is just making stuff up:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSVi45vfA6o&feature=player_detailpage

There are only 494 delegates available to Paul through the caucuses. You need 1,144 to win the nomination. Even if Paul took every caucus delegate (to include sweeping all the binding proportional delegates (unlikely he'd win 100% in any state), Paul would have a very tough time garnering enough delegate through the other primaries to win even a brokered convention.



Paul does not have a viable path to the nomination. The ONLY candidate who does is Mitt.

Just about every state has a caucus. Here in Arizona we had our primary and next month we have the county caucuses to elect delegates to the state and congressional district conventions. There people are elected to the national convention. For the first ballot the Arizona delegation is bound to vote for Romney. If Romney doesn't win on the first vote all bets are off and as I said before just about the entire delegation will abandon Romney after the first vote in a brokered convention.



It is Ron Paul's strategy to have his people become those delegates. We'll see if it works.

Considering how week the Paul contingent was here in Colorado (a caucus state), I think Paul's strategy is already dead.

Paul says he expects to win 50-75% of the Colorado delegation, 75-100% of the Minnesota delegation and 100% of the Maine delegation.

Cool. That'll give hime about 50 more delegates than he currently has.

That would put him only 50-60 behing Mitt (right now) since he'll mostly be stealing delegates from Santorum and not Mitt.



If that's his strategy to win the nomination, it's a losing one. I think the plan to simply affect the platform his what he's really after.

And 50% of the Iowa delegation.



The delegates (as in the actual people who will be delegates at the conventions) from the primary states are TBD. A lot of them may end up being Paul supporters in a brokered convention - that is the strategy.

jvquarterback wrote:
And 50% of the Iowa delegation.



The delegates (as in the actual people who will be delegates at the conventions) from the primary states are TBD. A lot of them may end up being Paul supporters in a brokered convention - that is the strategy.

A lot of them may also not be Paul supporters. Just because Paul says he expects to win 50-75% of Colorado's delegates that doesn't mean he actually will. He may have far fewer supporters than he expects, after all he is very very old and half senile.

hawkwing wrote:

And 50% of the Iowa delegation.



The delegates (as in the actual people who will be delegates at the conventions) from the primary states are TBD. A lot of them may end up being Paul supporters in a brokered convention - that is the strategy.

A lot of them may also not be Paul supporters. Just because Paul says he expects to win 50-75% of Colorado's delegates that doesn't mean he actually will. He may have far fewer supporters than he expects, after all he is very very old and half senile.

It's amazing how little people understand about how the political parities select candidates.

It's amazing how people will believe anything their candidate claims without looking at the reality of the situation. Paul has nothing going in Colorado right now--he didn't even try on the caucus night to set the stage for delegates in April at the state convention.



Nearly half of the delegates to the state convention come from Weld County (one of the most conservative counties in the US), and I am one of those. Of the Weld County delegates, Ron Paul has less than 7% of those delegates. Paul did not even have representatives present to speak at the precinct caucuses here, nor did he have a representative to speak at the district assemblies (where the precinct delegates elect delegates to the county and state conventions).



There's absolutely no way Paul is getting half of the Colorado convention, because he doesn't have enough delegates from the districts going to the state convention to vote each other in. Paul has zero organization on the ground here. I'd be surprised if he even gets 4 delegates out of Colorado.