Thought that this blog from Frank the Tank (Chicago) was most telling. In short, he feels that the B12 expansion will include Louisville and BYU.
I have cut and pasted his thoughts below:
2. Big 12 Expansion Rumors II: The More Realistic Louisville/BYU (or TBD) Scenario â I donât claim Dude-like sources, but for what itâs worth, Iâve heard from two separate places that validate what The Chronicle of Higher Education reported a couple of weeks ago: the Big 12 wants Louisville as school number 11 with BYU as the preferred choice for school number 12. Louisville is the easy part of the equation â both parties want each other and if the addition of the Cardinals alone wouldnât result in an odd number of schools, they would have been in the Big 12 a long time ago. The issue, of course, is that BYU has been far from easy to work with for any conference. We actually have to twist the mantra here of âThink like a university president and not like fanâ and apply the standard of âThink like a church leader and not like a university presidentâ for the purposes of BYU. From standpoint of the vast majority of universities, it would have made perfect sense for BYU to have joined either the Big 12 or Big East months ago. However, the decisions at BYU are being ultimately driven by LDS leadership and it appears that they are enamored of their independent ESPN exposure along with the opportunity to build up a greater audience for BYUtv. Essentially, theyâve caught Notre Dame-itis.
The problem for the Big 12 is that there isnât any realistic alternative for school number 12 besides BYU (assuming that, like me, you donât buy the rumor that the Big 12 will raid the ACC). Floaters about the Big 12 adding other Big East schools, such as Rutgers or Cincinnati, appear to be red herrings and not serious. (Note that I personally thought that the Big 12 could try a Northeastern expansion with Rutgers and UConn to integrate West Virginia further. This should be used as a âThe More You Knowâ public service announcement warning of the evils of drinking while blogging.) So, the Big 12 seems like they would be willing to pull the trigger on adding Louisville at any moment, but the open question is whether that the league would be fine with adding them as #11 without knowing that thereâs a satisfactory #12. Thatâs where the two people that Iâve talked to diverge: one says yes while the other says no. My inclination is that the answer is ânoâ. The Big Ten was willing to live with 11 schools for almost two decades, but thatâs because (1) school #11 was Penn State that was a clear national football power with a huge market (arguably the entire East Coast) and massive fan base and (2) the league legitimately believed that it would add Notre Dame as school #12 in relatively short order. As a result, the Big Ten was willing to wait for another football power to shake loose from the realignment tree (which ended up being Nebraska) instead of going immediately up to 12.
In contrast, thereâs little reason for the Big 12 to go up to 11 without going all the way to 12. Louisville is a fairly strong revenue generator (especially on the basketball side), but not at a Penn State/Notre Dame-level where itâs enough to justify passing up on conference championship game revenue with a 12th school. Now, I could see Louisville being added alone as school #11 if the Big 12 gets to a point where it reasonably believes that BYU (or some other school deemed revenue accretive enough) will join as school #12 within a short period of time (no more than one season). As I noted in my last post, the opening of the negotiations between ABC/ESPN and the Big 12 regarding an extension of their current contract will be a key date. Once that starts, the chances of the Big 12 expanding in the near-term drop precipitously since the league needs to have (if it knows what itâs doing) a 12-team setup for a conference championship game to offer by that time if thatâs truly their end goal. That means that further Big 12 expansion, if itâs going to occur, will need to happen fairly quickly (e.g. prior to this summer).
