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According To This Analysis - BYU FB Overachieved in 2011

by Cougarbib · 1/22/2012

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cougman
Nothing is mentioned about BYU. They are listed with their pre-season ranking and their final ranking which netted them a +7.



We've discussed this topic to death: If you measure a season in terms of number of wins, this season was pretty darn successful. If you measure a season in terms of number of wins vs quality opponents, this season was nothing special, and in the case of some weirdo fans :whistle: , a dissapointment.
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Cougarbib
cougman wrote:
Nothing is mentioned about BYU. They are listed with their pre-season ranking and their final ranking which netted them a +7.



We've discussed this topic to death: If you measure a season in terms of number of wins, this season was pretty darn successful. If you measure a season in terms of number of wins vs quality opponents, this season was nothing special, and in the case of some weirdo fans :whistle: , a dissapointment.


Exactly - BYU ended up as a plus 7 relative to where experts expected us to end up. I.E. BYU exceeded expectations and thus overachieved.



I realize that there were fans - perhaps with blue goggles - that expected more. This article referenced more objective expectations.



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SpiffCoug
If you measure the team from where it was a few games into the season (13 points a game, barely 300 yards of offense, a losing record) to where it finished the year, there was a great improvement.



It wasn't the greatest success we were hoping for, but it was a successful season. BYU discovered quite a bit about themselves and the program.



They know who they are, and it seems like they know what they want to be going forward. BYU knows who some of their real playmakers on offense (Hoffman) and defense (KVN) are. BYU has a lot of experience coming back next year. The team is more unified than it's been in a few years.



Struggles in 2011? You bet. Successful? I think so.
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frdbtr
I guess if you buy into the fact that "quality" is better the quantity. BYU won 10 games against 10 teams that had Div 1 athletes. Yes, some of those teams were not good but it is not easy to get a win no matter who you play. to do it 10 times in 13 tries is pretty good.
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Y12
Sports Illustrated predicted a 9-3 regular season record and didn't have BYU In the preseason top 25.



Take that for what it is worth.
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jonnylingo
The season was clearly a success.



However some are justified in their disappointement that over they recent years, despite having the money, the fans, the facilities and even the recruits byu has not been able to put together more than 10 wins and do some damage on the national stage. It is annoying that tcu, bsu, and even utah seem to ahve done more with less than what we have over a number of years.



I am happy with our season. hard to be mad when you have a top 25 football team with ten wins.



Despite that I want more. I want more than 10 wins and a shot at a bcs bowl. hawaii has done it, tcu has done it twice, utah has done it twice, bsu has done is twice. What is it going to take for BYU to break through that ceiling we have reached, despite the ceiling being very high.
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bigbluepuma
The fact that they beat whom they are expected to beat, while losing to whom they are expected to lose to (in general), and still have mostly 10 win seasons says a lot about where the program is. That says that BYU is above 3/4 of the programs in D1, whom theymostly play. When they begin to consistently beat the next 10% level of opponents, they will become "expected" to win those games, and to lose to the top 15%. No team ever gets to the point where they are consistantly expected to win all their games, and no theam consistanly wins games above their expectations, or their expectations change to match their win level. The problem many BYU fans (including myself) have, is that we expect them to win more than their level of expectability, even, in many cases, to win all their games. That sets us up for disappointment, which we very often don't handle well at all, and explains why we tend to always think they underachieve. On the other hand, analysis from outside sources often has the opposite bias, which leads them to see the team as overachieving.
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frdbtr
I don't think that anyone on this board would take a 10-3 season over a 13-0 BCS win season. That isn't the issue. The reason you see guys defending 10-3 is because the people arguing that BYU is under acheiving are acting like 10-3 is a losing year and coaches heads need to roll. I think that BYU has not underachieved yet. We were exactly what we deserved. The teams we lost to simply out played us on that day. utah was completely disapointing and embarrassing but on that day BYU played good enough to get their butts whipped. Last years team was pretty young. Next years team is the one that needs to play at a BCS level. In 2013 the sched and breaking in a new QB is going to make that a tough year. Hopefuly we weather that. 2013 has the potential to be Bronco's 1st losing season.
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Mars
frdbtr wrote:
I don't think that anyone on this board would take a 10-3 season over a 13-0 BCS win season. That isn't the issue. The reason you see guys defending 10-3 is because the people arguing that BYU is under acheiving are acting like 10-3 is a losing year.

Had we played in the Big XII this season, it may very well have been a losing year. BYU finished with a worse Sagarin and Sagarin predictor ranking than 7 of 10 B12 teams. Including the OOC Utah game, TCU game, and a team roughly the equal of Texas, Bronco could have gone 2-10 this season with this team (0-10 against BCS teams- if you include TCU, and 2-0 against non-BCS). And that would be with comeback, last-second wins over Utah State and UCF. Which would have made BYU appear to be about the 110th best team in the country, not above average. TCU and West Virginia also finished with better Sagarin and Sagarin predictor ratings than BYU in 2011.



With the easiest possible mix of 2011 independent and 2011 Big XII schedules (and assuming in-state play), BYU might have gone 7-6, with wins over Ole Miss (by 1 point over a non-bowl team), Utah State, UCF, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Tulsa, and losses to Utah, Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Baylor. That's 3-5 in conference play, 4-6 against BCS teams. Still not very good.



That's a statistical analysis, not an opinion.
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SpiffCoug
I guess it's a good thing we weren't in the Big XII-II this year.
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Cougarbib
Mars wrote:
I don't think that anyone on this board would take a 10-3 season over a 13-0 BCS win season. That isn't the issue. The reason you see guys defending 10-3 is because the people arguing that BYU is under acheiving are acting like 10-3 is a losing year.

Had we played in the Big XII this season, it may very well have been a losing year. BYU finished with a worse Sagarin and Sagarin predictor ranking than 7 of 10 B12 teams. Including the OOC Utah game, TCU game, and a team roughly the equal of Texas, Bronco could have gone 2-10 this season with this team (0-10 against BCS teams- if you include TCU, and 2-0 against non-BCS). And that would be with comeback, last-second wins over Utah State and UCF. Which would have made BYU appear to be about the 110th best team in the country, not above average. TCU and West Virginia also finished with better Sagarin and Sagarin predictor ratings than BYU in 2011.



With the easiest possible mix of 2011 independent and 2011 Big XII schedules (and assuming in-state play), BYU might have gone 7-6, with wins over Ole Miss (by 1 point over a non-

bowl team), Utah State, UCF, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Tulsa, and losses to Utah, Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Baylor. That's 3-5 in conference play, 4-6 against BCS teams. Still not very good.



That's a statistical analysis, not an opinion.


It is very realistic, IMHO. We will need to recruit better, prepare better, and water down the OOC schedule, if B12 ever comes calling. BEASTWEST we fare a little better, but if you do a similar analysis of that mix of teams - we lose our share there too.



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Cougarbib
Mars wrote:
I don't think that anyone on this board would take a 10-3 season over a 13-0 BCS win season. That isn't the issue. The reason you see guys defending 10-3 is because the people arguing that BYU is under acheiving are acting like 10-3 is a losing year.

Had we played in the Big XII this season, it may very well have been a losing year. BYU finished with a worse Sagarin and Sagarin predictor ranking than 7 of 10 B12 teams. Including the OOC Utah game, TCU game, and a team roughly the equal of Texas, Bronco could have gone 2-10 this season with this team (0-10 against BCS teams- if you include TCU, and 2-0 against non-BCS). And that would be with comeback, last-second wins over Utah State and UCF. Which would have made BYU appear to be about the 110th best team in the country, not above average. TCU and West Virginia also finished with better Sagarin and Sagarin predictor ratings than BYU in 2011.



With the easiest possible mix of 2011 independent and 2011 Big XII schedules (and assuming in-state play), BYU might have gone 7-6, with wins over Ole Miss (by 1 point over a non-

bowl team), Utah State, UCF, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Tulsa, and losses to Utah, Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Baylor. That's 3-5 in conference play, 4-6 against BCS teams. Still not very good.



That's a statistical analysis, not an opinion.


It is very realistic, IMHO. We will need to recruit better, prepare better, and water down the OOC schedule, if B12 ever comes calling. BEASTWEST we fare a little better, but if you do a similar analysis of that mix of teams - we lose our share there too.



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