Exclusive Article: Final nail in JHeaps vs RNelson Coffin

We're lucky to have a CougarCorner Exclusive article, The Final Nail in the Jake Heaps vs Riley Nelson Coffin by our very own SpiffCoug.



This is a tremendous article, and the only one that is written with numerous stats and numbers to backup what we saw on the field.



Here's the start...

For nearly two and a half years, Jake Heaps was the face of the BYU football program. He dazzled Cougar fans when the #1 quarterback high school recruit held a press conference in June 2009, announcing he was coming to Provo. He spoke and alluded to a national championship and returning BYU to the glory days of the Lavell Edwards years. Heaps talked about joining the Parthenon of great BYU quarterbacks like Jim McMahon, Steve Young and Ty Detmer.



The young, golden-armed quarterback even graduated high school early, so he could compete for the starting job vacated by the graduating Max Hall in spring ball. He wanted to get a jump on learning the offense and start moving up the record charts as soon as possible.

Keep reading...

Great read Spiff.

Well Done



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Great article. It's interesting to see that even with Heaps stretch at the end of last year, how poor/mediocre his stats were cumulatively. These last 2 years have definitely been an interesting time for BYU, both for the players and for the fans.

Awesome work.



Whenever I see Heaps' 2010 stats against bowl teams, it bothers me that UTEP even gets to be included in that calculation. No offense to the Miners, but what an awful team. There weren't many teams that WOULDN'T be able to squeeze six wins from their schedule - add in the fact that they were decimated by injuries by the time BYU played them, and you have a team that had no business bowling.



My biggest regret regarding 2011 expectations would have to be my willful blindness to how meaningless Heaps' New Mexico Bowl performance really was. I wanted to believe that Heaps had turned the corner, that he was finally becoming the QB we were all sold on. In hindsight, that game really meant about as much as a BYU QB throwing 4 touchdowns against Idaho or New Mexico - not an achievement, but the minimum expectation. BYU quarterbacks should blow out bad teams, and that's all Heaps really did in that game.

Fantastic read. Not surprisingly, I don't agree with all of it. Obviously some of it can't be argued in Jake's favor, but here is my take on some of your points:



You give a lot of weight to PER, which may be fine, but one statistic that I'm not sure why you didn't touch on much is 3rd down conversion %. While it's difficult to see who had a better conversion %, Heaps had a better completion % on 3rd for his career. No doubt that Riley's scrambling converted 3rd downs that Heaps couldn't get.



I've found that one of the greatest predictors of success is 3rd conversion % and completion %. It's interesting to note that Jake's completion % against bowl teams is also higher than Riley's.



"In 19 games, Jake played nine teams that won four games or fewer. He did play five teams that won eight games or more however. Riley has played three teams that won games or fewer in his 10 games, while meeting teams that won eight games or more three times. All in all, both quarterbacks competed against very similar level of competition – so the argument about competition is almost moot."



I would hardly say it is moot. Jake played in nearly twice as many top tier games as Riley. This is where both of them struggled and as a result, Jake's numbers look deflated compared to Riley's.



"Despite having the better arm that could supposedly make every throw, Jake rarely displayed the ability to properly control that arm."



I agree 100%. I blame coaching and I'll explain later.



"Looking at these numbers, it is somewhat amazing that the BYU coaches stuck with Jake for as long as they did in 2011. They gave him plenty of opportunity to turn things around. He simply could not.



There are now reports out there that Heaps attended just three of some 66 voluntary team workouts in the off-season."



Amen. Mendenhall and his staff have jacked up the QB position two years in a row. I get the impression that BM submitted to Heaps' demands and sorta tried to do anything possible to avoid upsetting him as opposed to COACHING him and TEACHING him how to be a college QB. The reports of him attending 3 voluntary workouts and working out with his personal trainers as opposed to Apo, Hoffman, and crew is insane. Maybe BM did everything he could to get Heaps to attend the workouts and ditch the glam workouts, but I don't get that impression. JMO.



"Conversely, if they had not made the change, I believe they would have gone on to lose to Utah State and would have then struggled to beat San Jose State. BYU would have been 2-3 going into that game, having lost to both in-state schools in dramatic fashion. I’m not sure the Cougars would have won at Oregon State either. And given the amount of pressure that Nelson was under against Hawaii, I have a hard time chalking that game up as a win if Heaps were the starter. So while I can count only one more victory with Nelson as the starter, I can see at least three more losses without the change.



I think BYU would have struggled for bowl eligibility if they hadn’t made the change at quarterback when they did. That move saved the season and health of the program is as good as it has ever been – even without the former best quarterback prospect in the nation."



The score at half vs Utah St was 13-14, so it's a little bias to say that had Jake stayed in we would have automatically lost the game. It's nothing more than conjecture to say that Jake wouldn't have been able to win at OSU or Hawaii. 3 out of the 5 teams Jake started against before he was benched were bowl teams and UCF would have been had they not lost 30-29 to a ranked Southern Miss. Riley played 1 bowl team during the regular season. But even if they lose those games, they're still bowl eligible.



"Jake Heaps simply fooled everyone with his hype, talk and high school accolades. His performance at quarterback camps gave all watchers the impression that he could compete at a high level very early in his college career. Instead, his performance the field, when it mattered, resembled nothing like those sessions."



Sort of. If it's conceivable that one can be "coached up", it stands to reason that one could be "coached down." Heaps did nothing to help himself. Unfortunately neither did our coaching staff.



"Whether he can turn thing around in Kansas remains to be seen. Whether he can recapture some of the ability that earned him all those accolades coming out of high school is as of yet unknown. It likely won’t be known for several more years either."



I'm betting he does.



Finally, I think another factor that has gotten lost is the age and maturity level. Riley's got to be 3 or 4 years older than Heaps. He also served a mission. My point is Riley was more mature, composed, and able to deal with the crap that a string of poor performance is likely to bring. That's not an excuse. In fact, it's an argument for Riley. But it's also another indictment on the way the coaching staff handled Heaps.



Anyhow, great work and interesting perspective.

The score at half vs Utah St was 13-14, so it's a little bias to say that had Jake stayed in we would have automatically lost the game.

To be honest, I had a hard time reading this and keeping a straight face. For starters, by the time Heaps DID get pulled in the 3rd quarter, things had already gotten worse - it was 21-13, and based on Heaps' performance up until then, those 8 points felt pretty dang insurmountable. If you really believe that Heaps would have somehow put together the drives necessary to win that game, I suppose you're entitled to your opinion, but it's up there with "BYU would've made the Final Four if they played more Nick Martineau" in terms of plausibility.

It's nothing more than conjecture to say that Jake wouldn't have been able to win at OSU or Hawaii. 3 out of the 5 teams Jake started against before he was benched were bowl teams and UCF would have been had they not lost 30-29 to a ranked Southern Miss.

Okay, now you're inflating 5-7 teams to make Heaps look better. A 5-7 team that lost to 3-9 UAB, no less! By that logic, let's congratulate Riley Nelson for beating a 5-7 SJSU team and a 6-7 Hawaii team - I believe you referred to the latter as "garbage." I mean, they beat a LT team that won the WAC and almost took TCU down, right?

Riley played 1 bowl team during the regular season. But even if they lose those games, they're still bowl eligible.

Well, two, actually, but that's a minor quibble.

cougman wrote:
Fantastic read. Not surprisingly, I don't agree with all of it. Obviously some of it can't be argued in Jake's favor, but here is my take on some of your points:



You give a lot of weight to PER, which may be fine, but one statistic that I'm not sure why you didn't touch on much is 3rd down conversion %. While it's difficult to see who had a better conversion %, Heaps had a better completion % on 3rd for his career. No doubt that Riley's scrambling converted 3rd downs that Heaps couldn't get.



I've found that one of the greatest predictors of success is 3rd conversion % and completion %. It's interesting to note that Jake's completion % against bowl teams is also higher than Riley's.



"In 19 games, Jake played nine teams that won four games or fewer. He did play five teams that won eight games or more however. Riley has played three teams that won games or fewer in his 10 games, while meeting teams that won eight games or more three times. All in all, both quarterbacks competed against very similar level of competition – so the argument about competition is almost moot."



I would hardly say it is moot. Jake played in nearly twice as many top tier games as Riley. This is where both of them struggled and as a result, Jake's numbers look deflated compared to Riley's.



"Despite having the better arm that could supposedly make every throw, Jake rarely displayed the ability to properly control that arm."



I agree 100%. I blame coaching and I'll explain later.



"Looking at these numbers, it is somewhat amazing that the BYU coaches stuck with Jake for as long as they did in 2011. They gave him plenty of opportunity to turn things around. He simply could not.



There are now reports out there that Heaps attended just three of some 66 voluntary team workouts in the off-season."



Amen. Mendenhall and his staff have jacked up the QB position two years in a row. I get the impression that BM submitted to Heaps' demands and sorta tried to do anything possible to avoid upsetting him as opposed to COACHING him and TEACHING him how to be a college QB. The reports of him attending 3 voluntary workouts and working out with his personal trainers as opposed to Apo, Hoffman, and crew is insane. Maybe BM did everything he could to get Heaps to attend the workouts and ditch the glam workouts, but I don't get that impression. JMO.



"Conversely, if they had not made the change, I believe they would have gone on to lose to Utah State and would have then struggled to beat San Jose State. BYU would have been 2-3 going into that game, having lost to both in-state schools in dramatic fashion. I’m not sure the Cougars would have won at Oregon State either. And given the amount of pressure that Nelson was under against Hawaii, I have a hard time chalking that game up as a win if Heaps were the starter. So while I can count only one more victory with Nelson as the starter, I can see at least three more losses without the change.



I think BYU would have struggled for bowl eligibility if they hadn’t made the change at quarterback when they did. That move saved the season and health of the program is as good as it has ever been – even without the former best quarterback prospect in the nation."



The score at half vs Utah St was 13-14, so it's a little bias to say that had Jake stayed in we would have automatically lost the game. It's nothing more than conjecture to say that Jake wouldn't have been able to win at OSU or Hawaii. 3 out of the 5 teams Jake started against before he was benched were bowl teams and UCF would have been had they not lost 30-29 to a ranked Southern Miss. Riley played 1 bowl team during the regular season. But even if they lose those games, they're still bowl eligible.



"Jake Heaps simply fooled everyone with his hype, talk and high school accolades. His performance at quarterback camps gave all watchers the impression that he could compete at a high level very early in his college career. Instead, his performance the field, when it mattered, resembled nothing like those sessions."



Sort of. If it's conceivable that one can be "coached up", it stands to reason that one could be "coached down." Heaps did nothing to help himself. Unfortunately neither did our coaching staff.



"Whether he can turn thing around in Kansas remains to be seen. Whether he can recapture some of the ability that earned him all those accolades coming out of high school is as of yet unknown. It likely won’t be known for several more years either."



I'm betting he does.



Finally, I think another factor that has gotten lost is the age and maturity level. Riley's got to be 3 or 4 years older than Heaps. He also served a mission. My point is Riley was more mature, composed, and able to deal with the crap that a string of poor performance is likely to bring. That's not an excuse. In fact, it's an argument for Riley. But it's also another indictment on the way the coaching staff handled Heaps.



Anyhow, great work and interesting perspective.

cougman,



Blaming coaching at this point is asinine. If we learned anything from Jake heaps it is that he was very selective with whom he listened to. If we've learned anything from Bronco Mendenhall, it's that he's willing to give players second chances, almost to a fault. I think that is why Heaps was the starter for so long this year. He honestly wanted to see Jake Heaps succeed. And your "coach down" comment is also ridiculous. These is the same QB/OC coach that has put his last 2 QBs in the NFL. It's become painfully obvious (to me at least)that either Jake had hit a plateau in his development, or he wasn't taking full advantage of the coaches he had at BYU and instead relied on personal coaches (who you might be referring to when you're blaming coaching).



USU ABSOLUTELY is a loss without Riley Nelson. Remember the utah game was close as well at halftime and USU was looking like a similar result before Riley stepped in. The USU game was not a 1 point game when Heaps took a turn on the bench.

cougman said

"Sort of. If it's conceivable that one can be "coached up", it stands to reason that one could be "coached down." Heaps did nothing to help himself. Unfortunately neither did our coaching staff."



You're right, the CS didn't do much to help Heaps. Unfortunately, you can't coach the uncoachable. I think Heaps has a huge potential, which now, he might be humble enough to realize. It wasn't until after he was benched, that he ever even hinted that maybe he could improve. Before that, he always made excuses and cast blame. I've said it before: Riley's a competitor, Jake's a star. IF he is now humble enough to learn, he could have mended the bridges with the team here and realized his potential as a cougar. If not, he won't realize it elswhere. It will be harder to do, but do-able in a new system with new coaches and new team mates. It all depends on Jake. In order to be a great QB, he needs to be a great team leader, which he cannot be unless he quits being a star and takes his place as part of the team.

Cougman seems to prefer a completed pass a yard short on 3rd down over a scramble or QB draw for a first down leading to a TD. So did Jake Heaps - thus the lack of TDs. A high completion percentage with low YPC and low YAC is actually not a good thing. The goal is to score points - preferably TDs. CM denies a man crush on Heaps and still keeps coming back to it has to be someone else's fault than Jake's. Jake felt the same way and thus did not improve.



And yes - the coaches failed to give Jake the maturity of someone 4 or more years older than him. They should have red-shirted Jake Heaps and then given him a year of 3rd string, and then waited until he was hungry enough to play to take a hit and to mesh with his teammates.



I think Jake Heaps almost certainly will show more maturity in 2013 in Kansas. He will be three years older than he was at his first presser. If he is not more mature - then who is he gonna blame?



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Cougman, when I get home tonight, I'll go back and post the conversion rates for Riley and Jake in the games I tracked. I'll spell out how even more in depth the disparity on 3rd down was.



But as a preview, in the 7 games Heaps played this year (right now, I'll even give him the entire USU game which will help him considering how good Riley was on 3rd down), BYU converted 50 of 102 (49.05).



In the eight games I counted for Riley, BYU was 66 fo 114 (57.4%). Riley was better on 3rd down.



When I get home, I'll try to get a better break out (split up the USU and Idaho games), figure out if Riley ran any 3rd down plays in the early games.



The results may suprirse both of us.

cougman wrote:
You give a lot of weight to PER, which may be fine, but one statistic that I'm not sure why you didn't touch on much is 3rd down conversion %. While it's difficult to see who had a better conversion %, Heaps had a better completion % on 3rd for his career. No doubt that Riley's scrambling converted 3rd downs that Heaps couldn't get.



I've found that one of the greatest predictors of success is 3rd conversion % and completion %. It's interesting to note that Jake's completion % against bowl teams is also higher than Riley's.

You really should look up statistics before you assume what they will be. In the games Heaps started and finished, BYU went 33/74 on 3rd down conversions. In the games Nelson started and finished, BYU went 49/87. I left out Utah State and Idaho because I don't have the time right now to parse out the stats for each QB as they split time. Under Heaps, that would tie UCF for #34 in the country. Under Nelson, 56.32% is #1 in the nation, ahead of Wisconsin at 54.14%.



Again, you really should look into these things before you make assumptions.

"In 19 games, Jake played nine teams that won four games or fewer. He did play five teams that won eight games or more however. Riley has played three teams that won games or fewer in his 10 games, while meeting teams that won eight games or more three times. All in all, both quarterbacks competed against very similar level of competition – so the argument about competition is almost moot."



I would hardly say it is moot. Jake played in nearly twice as many top tier games as Riley. This is where both of them struggled and as a result, Jake's numbers look deflated compared to Riley's.

Huh? Jake also play three times as many suckfest teams as Nelson.....did you just happen to gloss over that in reasoning away his "deflated" numbers?

"Conversely, if they had not made the change, I believe they would have gone on to lose to Utah State and would have then struggled to beat San Jose State. BYU would have been 2-3 going into that game, having lost to both in-state schools in dramatic fashion. I’m not sure the Cougars would have won at Oregon State either. And given the amount of pressure that Nelson was under against Hawaii, I have a hard time chalking that game up as a win if Heaps were the starter. So while I can count only one more victory with Nelson as the starter, I can see at least three more losses without the change.



I think BYU would have struggled for bowl eligibility if they hadn’t made the change at quarterback when they did. That move saved the season and health of the program is as good as it has ever been – even without the former best quarterback prospect in the nation."



The score at half vs Utah St was 13-14, so it's a little bias to say that had Jake stayed in we would have automatically lost the game.

When Heaps left the game in the 3rd quarter, it was 21-13, and he was looking completely inept at the position.

Cougman, give it up brother. I tried saying over and over last year and this year that "Jake was the 'suckiest suck that ever sucked'" and it still did not appease the Heaps haters. Spiff has used objective data to make that same argument And indeed he has done so successfully. Spiff is not necessarily a "hater", to his credit, and he provided stats over conjecture on most occasions over useless rumors and hate.

Its what is observable and therefore more objective than conjecture or opinion.

He cannot in such a reputable, objective piece include the less observable elements, the intangibles, that could be considered more "organizational and psychological analysis". Which is where I have unsuccessfully tried to go.

Jake probably deserves the majority of the blame from his ego, a seemingly fragile one at that, to his not gaining the faith and trust of his teammates, to competitive backdoor losing ground to Riley, to most importantly, not performing as is evidenced by Spiff's great collection and analysis of the hard data, to coaches "mishandling."

At the end of day, notwithstanding the intangibles or the organizational/interpersonal conjectures, Jake was not getting the job done. He was not winning. And he was even getting worse each game this year. And his teammates were not responding to him and had lost faith almost entirely.

Doman had to save his job and the season. Riley was the answer. And thank goodness he was. Another loss to USU--and we were going to lose that game--and this program very likely would have been cast into a dark hole for a long period. We would have lost more than Heaps this year, other players and or Recruits would have jumped, IMO; and who knows how many other games we lose if heaps stays in and the team stays in a bad funk. We don't go bowling.

IT was a weak to disastrous prognosis that was getting worse. Heaps had to be replaced. Maybe he coulda shoulda come back in the game after USU. BUt he had his shot.

Maybe Heaps' ceiling is much higher than Riley's (many will argue against that) but Heaps needed exactly what Im sure the coaches were suggesting, a redshirt. He had a lot going on in his life and family, not all his fault or choices, that were distracting and compounding, and then progressively worsening his performances this season that really necessitated a timeout, a time away, a redshirt. He wasn't pulling out of his nosedive. Well, now he's going to get that redshirt. And he may recover and do much better. I predict he will. BUt even I became convinced that BYU COULD NOT AFFORD TO LET JAKE (and Jake's bad chemistry with his teammates--not all his fault) TAKE DOWN THIS TEAM ANY LONGER. The coaches finally took the BEST CORRECTIVE ACTION to right this ship. It may have taken longer than some would want and maybe we could have beat texas if Riley came in at half and not not been blown out by utah, but good on the coaches for finally making the change.

I sure hope Riley does not prove to be a Tebow and have to rely on brilliant, magical comeback after comeback and heroics that eventually run out (as we saw the last two weeks with Tebow). Instead I hope Riley can mature and evolve at least a little beyond Riley-ball and take his place in at least the Tier-II Hall of Legends (Beck and Hall)or higher. I'm hoping that he has a SENIOR season consistent with most seniors in terms of wins and success next year. I'm hoping his leadership is not just ego-centric, "look at me" I climbed the hill and attained BYU glory" and he LEADS this team in the off-season, ala John Beck, to heightened preparation, execution and consistency; and that it shows next year. I think he can. I hope he can.

Go RIley! Go Cougars! GO AWAY Riley vs Heaps!!!

Thanks Spiff for trying to nail this coffin down. Now if we can just bury it and forget about it!

I'm finally coming around to Jake transferring and I too am tired of this conversation but more tired of reading that this is a black and white issue. The numbers are a great analysis but we're comparing freshman/sophmore seasons to a 1/2 game junior and senior(2nd junior) seasons with 2-3 years of prior experiance (I get that the age shouldn't matter and we should be playing the better one and not the one with potential). Riley vs. Jake just needs to die.



Riley won the Utah State game for us which was a fun game and a nice story. I don't think we would have won that game if Jake stayed in. I also think that if depend on Riley's long ball to Jacobson that we don't win it 9 times out of 10.



Jake made some major mistakes with the leadership part of being a D1 QB and also did not make up for it on the field this year. Riley also could have been a better leader as a team player and helped get the team behind the starting QB but according to the rumors he was only a leader when it was in his best interest. Both QB's left a lot to be desired regardless of which one we like better.



Hopefully the coaches use the last two years as a lesson of what to do with Hill and Mangum and lets all pray that Riley tears it up next year, doesn't get hurt, and when he does that Lark can come in and perform. Go Riley and good luck Heaps.

Stirfry wrote:
Riley also could have been a better leader as a team player and helped get the team behind the starting QB but according to the rumors he was only a leader when it was in his best interest. Both QB's left a lot to be desired regardless of which one we like better.

I just read the "Heaps only attended 3 of 66 summer workouts" thread. :sick: I probably need to take back my Riley being a team player statement above as I don't know what Riley could have possible done even if he was the greatest leader ever to get the team behind a starting qb who misses virtually all of the "voluntary" workouts. That stat above all else should be the final nail in the coffin for Jake and the coaches should have never let it happen or never put him in as the team "leader" after that. Who is mentoring this kid and why on earth have they not been beanched?

Stirfry wrote:
I'm finally coming around to Jake transferring and I too am tired of this conversation but more tired of reading that this is a black and white issue. The numbers are a great analysis but we're comparing freshman/sophmore seasons to a 1/2 game junior and senior(2nd junior) seasons with 2-3 years of prior experiance (I get that the age shouldn't matter and we should be playing the better one and not the one with potential). Riley vs. Jake just needs to die.

Coming into this season, Riley Nelson had played in 15 college football games - 9 of which came before his mission in 2006. Jake Heaps had played in 13.

DM, great post.

cougman wrote:
The score at half vs Utah St was 13-14, so it's a little bias to say that had Jake stayed in we would have automatically lost the game.

I was at the USU game and there was a 180 degree difference in terms of energy and excitement and how the team played with the two QB's. Not only would we have lost with Heaps in, but we would have lost by more than 8. We were awful with him and we were getting worse as the game progressed. It is more than bias or conjecture, I guarantee a loss if Heaps had finished the game.



In my 22 years of following BYU football, I have never seen as much of a difference between two QB's, as far as how the team and fans responded, as I did in that game. It was fascinating to experience.

Yes I agree. It was a huge Turning Point in the game, the season, and this program for the next few years if not more. Ive never seen a team rally more in spirit and play than when Riley went in. And for a while it really bugged me that the team didn't seem to play as hard with Jake in--which is hardly conceivable that any player would not play hard on every play--but it happened. We saw the opposite vs Utah and to see the D just give up was portending very bad conditions.



Thanks Spiff. I'm still a little edgy but hopefully backed away from the edge quite a bit. :-)

Yeah, the Utah game was just disappointing all around.