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Dcr36Originally, I was going to post a chart comparing our recruiting classes with subsequent Sagarin rankings, and compare them to other schools, but I stopped halfway. BYU is just too hard to compare to other schools. For example, Andrew George was recruited in 2002 and was an impact player in 2009 - you're rarely going to see that at other schools. It seems like, at another school, you should expect to see good recruiting reflected in good seasons 2-3 years after the class comes in. At BYU, that's true for some players, but for others, it's closer to 5-6. So instead, I just thought we'd look at each player on a case by case basis.
At what point is a player "talented enough" that Bronco can't manage/coach him? Do we draw the line at 4 stars? In that case, rather than stating "Bronco can't coach talent," I think it's more worthwhile to look at each player, whether they've performed, and if they haven't, why.
Players who are successes are blue. Players who are under-performers are red. Those who still could go either way are left black.
'05:
Vic So'oto - First-team MWC, 2010, on Packers roster
Matt Reynolds - very good in previous years, a little disappointing in 2011, likely NFL player
'06:
James Lark - backup QB, could be important next year
Matangi Tonga - only played one year, left for discipline reasons
'07:
Marcus Mathews - sophomore, nothing to write home about but looks good when he gets the ball
Cade Cooper - QB, transferred due to position logjam
Jason Munns - backup QB, could be 2013 starter
'08:
Austin Holt - sophomore TE
Bernard Afutiti - left due to academics
Tevita Hola - played, but did nothing of note
'09:
Craig Bills - on a mission
Kyle Van Noy - Certified stud
Richard Wilson - sophomore TE
Adam Hine - scout team stud, hopefully future stud
Uona Kaveinga (he transferred in '09, right?): fumble-forcing machine
'10:
Jake Heaps - definite contributor, but mostly disappointing, transferred
Zac Stout - looked decent as a freshman, injured this year, hopefully stays
Graham Rowley - sophomore, he's looked okay (I'm really not an expert on linesman play)
Bronson Kafusi - on a mission
Ross Apo - certified stud, hopefully stays
'11:
none
Final count: 20 4+ star recruits under BM
5 solid players, four currently on the roster
5 definite under-performers: two discipline/academics transfers, one transfer before meaningful PT, one on-field under-performer, and Heaps, who is a crazy mix of several factors
10 undecideds - 2 on missions, 2 are backup QBs, 3 are sophomore TEs, several have seen their PT hampered by injury, etc.
Notes:
-Of these 20 recruits, note that 4 are QBs, and 3 are TEs. Recruit rankings are important, but 4 QBs in a 7-year window could easily inflate expectations - it pumps up the stats even though it's unlikely they are all going to see playing time.
-The TEs are a little troubling - I see the point of those that feel that TEs are the second-most mismanaged incident at BYU under BM, behind Heaps/Nelson. I especially like Holt and Mathews, but TEs don't seem very important in the current offense. To their credit, they look good WHEN they get the opportunity to look good - perhaps the offense isn't going to its playmakers. On the other hand, when your WR corps is Hoffman, Apo and Falslev, maybe they are. Who knows.
-But quibbles aside, I see a grand total of ONE instance where a player came to BYU, stuck it out, had no academic or HC issues, and failed to become an impact player (Hola). Maybe people are disappointed in Wilson, Rowley, Stout, etc. but that seems unfair and premature. These guys are all sophomores. In EVERY OTHER CASE of a failed highly-regarded recruit, there was something other than on-the-field issues that became a problem.
-I could be missing a transfer or two. I barely remembered Kaveinga.
I'm sorry, but based on this, I just can't buy into the argument that Bronco squanders big-time recruits. I feel like "Bronco can't coach talent" is one of those things like "Riley has hit his ceiling" or "our secondary can't stop the pass." It sounds right and passes a brief "eye test," so it gets repeated a lot until it's accepted as a truism by most BYU fans.
At what point is a player "talented enough" that Bronco can't manage/coach him? Do we draw the line at 4 stars? In that case, rather than stating "Bronco can't coach talent," I think it's more worthwhile to look at each player, whether they've performed, and if they haven't, why.
Players who are successes are blue. Players who are under-performers are red. Those who still could go either way are left black.
'05:
Vic So'oto - First-team MWC, 2010, on Packers roster
Matt Reynolds - very good in previous years, a little disappointing in 2011, likely NFL player
'06:
James Lark - backup QB, could be important next year
Matangi Tonga - only played one year, left for discipline reasons
'07:
Marcus Mathews - sophomore, nothing to write home about but looks good when he gets the ball
Cade Cooper - QB, transferred due to position logjam
Jason Munns - backup QB, could be 2013 starter
'08:
Austin Holt - sophomore TE
Bernard Afutiti - left due to academics
Tevita Hola - played, but did nothing of note
'09:
Craig Bills - on a mission
Kyle Van Noy - Certified stud
Richard Wilson - sophomore TE
Adam Hine - scout team stud, hopefully future stud
Uona Kaveinga (he transferred in '09, right?): fumble-forcing machine
'10:
Jake Heaps - definite contributor, but mostly disappointing, transferred
Zac Stout - looked decent as a freshman, injured this year, hopefully stays
Graham Rowley - sophomore, he's looked okay (I'm really not an expert on linesman play)
Bronson Kafusi - on a mission
Ross Apo - certified stud, hopefully stays
'11:
none
Final count: 20 4+ star recruits under BM
5 solid players, four currently on the roster
5 definite under-performers: two discipline/academics transfers, one transfer before meaningful PT, one on-field under-performer, and Heaps, who is a crazy mix of several factors
10 undecideds - 2 on missions, 2 are backup QBs, 3 are sophomore TEs, several have seen their PT hampered by injury, etc.
Notes:
-Of these 20 recruits, note that 4 are QBs, and 3 are TEs. Recruit rankings are important, but 4 QBs in a 7-year window could easily inflate expectations - it pumps up the stats even though it's unlikely they are all going to see playing time.
-The TEs are a little troubling - I see the point of those that feel that TEs are the second-most mismanaged incident at BYU under BM, behind Heaps/Nelson. I especially like Holt and Mathews, but TEs don't seem very important in the current offense. To their credit, they look good WHEN they get the opportunity to look good - perhaps the offense isn't going to its playmakers. On the other hand, when your WR corps is Hoffman, Apo and Falslev, maybe they are. Who knows.
-But quibbles aside, I see a grand total of ONE instance where a player came to BYU, stuck it out, had no academic or HC issues, and failed to become an impact player (Hola). Maybe people are disappointed in Wilson, Rowley, Stout, etc. but that seems unfair and premature. These guys are all sophomores. In EVERY OTHER CASE of a failed highly-regarded recruit, there was something other than on-the-field issues that became a problem.
-I could be missing a transfer or two. I barely remembered Kaveinga.
I'm sorry, but based on this, I just can't buy into the argument that Bronco squanders big-time recruits. I feel like "Bronco can't coach talent" is one of those things like "Riley has hit his ceiling" or "our secondary can't stop the pass." It sounds right and passes a brief "eye test," so it gets repeated a lot until it's accepted as a truism by most BYU fans.