Hawaii, by the numbers

Thought I'd take this opportunity to break Hawaii down. I'm sorry if any of the following is redundant or has been pointed out elsewhere: I've only been following CC occasionally the last week or two, nursing a post-BE hangover. ;)



First off - I'm not surprised Hawaii beat the Green Wave on Saturday, but I'm a little disappointed. I wanted Hawaii to play BYU with nothing on the line. Now, the Warriors will be fighting for bowl eligibility.



Fun with Sagarin rankings, W-L, etc.



BYU's Sagarin ranking - 45th

Hawaii's Sagarin ranking - 93rd



BYU - wins against 108, 81, 74, 95, 81, 208, 134, 130

BYU - losses against 14, 38, 21



Hawaii - wins against 96, 146, 46, 130, 134, 173

Hawaii - losses against 40, 147, 95, 74, 67, 100



Average Sagarin ranking of BYU's wins - 113.8 (100.4 when removing FCS teams)

Average Sagarin ranking of Hawaii's wins - 120.8 (115.6 when removing FCS teams)



Average Sagarin ranking of BYU's losses - 24.3

Average Sagarin ranking of Hawaii's losses - 87.1



Notes -

- Hawaii loses to bad teams. There's no way to get around that. Good teams do not lose to Fresno, SJSU or (especially) UNLV.

- On the other hand, LA Tech is the best Sagarin win between the two teams. I read very little into that win. LA Tech is Utah State South - they got demoralized by some close losses early on, became much better as the schedule softened up a bit, they made a QB switch, and found their identity as a team.

- I find this as illuminating for BYU as I do for Hawaii. The reason there's absolutely no consensus regarding the ability level of BYU this year is that's there's been no "middle section" in our schedule - we've played either top competition or cupcakes. (I'm pretending Utah didn't happen. ;) ) Looking at Hawaii from a ranking standpoint, they won't settle this either. I'm sure they'll play tough, have plenty of motivation, etc, but Hawaii is, for the most part, a bad team.



Fun with shared opponents



BYU and Hawaii have shared four opponents - Idaho, NMSU, SJSU, and USU. BYU is 4-0 against these opponents, Hawaii is 2-2.



Please note that there's a lot of reason not to trust PER as it regards to offensive performance - there's a lot of question marks for both BYU and Hawaii regarding QBs this week. For what it's worth, it equals roughly 6 quarters of Nelson, 8 quarters of Heaps and 2 quarters of Lark for BYU. For Hawaii, I believe it's all Moniz.



Against these four opponents -



Passing:

BYU - completed 77 of 132 passes for 970 yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, PER of 144

Hawaii - completed 112 of 184 passes for 1144 yards, 7 TDs, and 4 INTs, PER of 121.3

Rushing:

BYU - rushed 166 times for 840 yards, 5.06 YPC

Hawaii - rushed 107 times for 564 yards, 5.27 YPC

Pass defense -

BYU - allowed completion of 68 of 113 passes for 586 yards, 3 TDs and 4 INTs, for a PER of 105.4

Hawaii - allowed completion of 72 of 127 passes for 974 yards, 7 TDs and 6 INTs, for a PER of 129.8

Rush defense -

BYU - allowed 133 rushes for 635 yards, 4.77 YPC allowed*

Hawaii - allowed 141 rushes for 594 yards, 4.21 YPC allowed



Margin of victory/loss -

BYU margin - average of +21.5

Hawaii margin - average of +2



*That BYU rush defense stat bothers me because I felt like, USU aside, we were solid against the run in those games. Seriously, I think 1/3 of 635 yards came off of 2 home-run rushes against USU and that one 90-yard run Idaho got late in the game.



Additionally, BYU got to take it's starters out for 2 of those quarters (which often has an adverse effect on stats on both sides of the ball). Hawaii was played close in all of those games.



I'll keep adding stuff, possibly tonight, possibly as the week continues.

awesome. i didn't know we had four shared opponents, but Iguess that's what happens to a "Wac-lite" schedule. The sagarin is also interesting; my takeaway from those numbers is that we are 46, and hawaii has beaten a 45 (LA tech I presume). Either way, unlike Idaho and NMSt, Hawaii can beat us.



Minor detail for the next iteration, % completions and YPC would help make more sense of the passing stats since hawaii attempts quite a few more passes than we do

CougarClaw wrote:
awesome. i didn't know we had four shared opponents, but Iguess that's what happens to a "Wac-lite" schedule. The sagarin is also interesting; my takeaway from those numbers is that we are 46, and hawaii has beaten a 45 (LA tech I presume). Either way, unlike Idaho and NMSt, Hawaii can beat us.



Minor detail for the next iteration, % completions and YPC would help make more sense of the passing stats since hawaii attempts quite a few more passes than we do

I deleted the spreadsheets I had open to calculate the PERs, but I can tell you that BYU's comp % in those 4 games was around 58.3% (remember, it was mostly Heaps in those 4 games), while Hawaii was something close to 60%. YPC should be a telling stat for Hawaii - they had 35 more completions but less than 200 more yards.

The bad news - Hawaii is 15th in the nation in total sacks on the year.



The good news-

http://i1107.photobucket.com/albums/h387/dcr36/hawaiisacks.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

I will only be concerned with that stat if Heaps starts. I don't think that they will even try to pressure Riley since he can tuck it and burn them for big yards on the ground.

QB Mobility



Bryant Moniz, this season, had some of the wackiest rushing numbers I've ever seen. Behold:



CU: 14 carries, 121 yards

Wash: 9 carries, 2 yards

UNLV : 6 carries, -28 yards

UC-D: 5 carries, 50 yards

LT: 6 carries, -19 yards

SJSU: 8 carries, 64 yards

NMSU: 11 carries, 62 yards

Idaho: 10 carries, -28 yards

USU: 12 carries, 75 yards



In sum, Moniz had a 121-yard day against a Pac-12 team (yes, I know, it's Colorado), a 75-yard day against Famous Potato Bowlers USU, and a total of -56 yards against 2-win UNLV and and 2-win Idaho. :bug:



Of course, Moniz isn't playing, but I'm bringing him up for a reason - Moniz rushed the ball 81 times in the 9 games he played - he accounted for over 35% of Hawaii's rushes. For a comparison - in Riley's four games as the uncontested starter, he accounted for 27% of our rushes. If you felt BYU's offense was scramble-heavy under Riley, he was nothing compared to Moniz. Hawaii's running game may not be that significant to their offense, but Moniz WAS significant to their running game.



Moniz's departure has affected the number of rushes Hawaii attempts per game - from 25.3 to 19.6. Hawaii didn't always run the ball under Moniz, but they had the option and had three games in the 30+ range. If they want to continue to use a running QB, then they'll have to use David Graves. However, Graves got yanked against Tulane when his turnover-prone offense let the Green Wave pull within 5 points in the 4th quarter. It'll be interesting to see who gets the nod against BYU.

Moniz looked like an all-world, 4.1 40 guy in that game vs. CU, dude had me scared. But it turns out that it was just CU's terrible defense.

David Graves got his bell rung in the Tulane game and had concussion-like symptoms. He passed and scrambled effectively before being taken out. IDK if he will be cleared to play. He tried to tough it out for a few plays after the hit, but coaches noticed he was out of it by what he was saying and asking. If I read the stat line correctly, Hawaii fumbled 4 times. Hawaii put up nearly 500 yards including 358 or so passing. They have a decent RB and lots of receivers, as usual.



It was Tulane, though. IDK what to make of that. Tulane got a safety and then a very short field when UH Punter followed the safety by free kicking it out of bounds for a penalty. That got a quick TD. That 8 points made it tighter than it otherwise was. UH D was actually pretty decent. It was Tulane, though. IDK what to make of that.



Then you have the point shaving effect. Were they or weren't they? before and now? In other words are they better than they looked early on due to point shaving and will that show up now that they would not dare shave points? IDK - and doubt the point shaving claim. But they rarely beat the spread and didn't beat it vs Tulane either.



So maybe there is not any pent up POTENTIAL that was previously held back by shaving.



Your analysis would be very interesting if you break it out for UH by Home and Away. They usually suck on the road - see UNLV loss for example. But they whacked their best opponent on the road iirc. Go figure.



Home field usually means something here. Especialy when the stands are full. The weather - wind and rain - was bad last weekend and Tulane sucked so it was apparently a very small crowd. Not sure if it will clear by Saturday. They will show better vs BYU. Either the wind blew the apathy away or the rain washed it away because they are getting pumped for BYU around here.





Like BYU - your stats show that the QB plays better vs weak opponents - generally.



UH has a QB - Jeremy Higgins that is a USU transfer, but he has to sit out this year.



#1 Moniz is out. #2 Graves has a headache. #3 Austin finsihed the Tulane game and may start vs BYU - IDK for sure.

My spy tells me he thinks Graves will start despite any headache. My spy works for me and is such a die hard fan that he sat through the Tulane game in the bad weather and stayed till the end.



He is more worried about the UH Offense performing poorly than he is the UH Defense. I agree based on what I have read.



Graves wil make mistakes if we are able to bring pressure. Austin will make fewer mistakes - but will not be as likely to make big plays either.



The UH kicking game was poor Saturday. But it was windy and rainy. Tulane out played them in the kicking game.

Cougarbib2 wrote:
David Graves got his bell rung in the Tulane game and had concussion-like symptoms. He passed and scrambled effectively before being taken out. IDK if he will be cleared to play. He tried to tough it out for a few plays after the hit, but coaches noticed he was out of it by what he was saying and asking. If I read the stat line correctly, Hawaii fumbled 4 times. Hawaii put up nearly 500 yards including 358 or so passing. They have a decent RB and lots of receivers, as usual.

Thanks. I've actually watched a fair number of Hawaii games this year just because they're usually the "last call" game when they play at home. But I couldn't muster up the interest to watch Hawaii play a 2-win C-USA team, being in a turkey-induced stupor and all. I just looked at the play-by-play and saw that Austin got put in during a Tulane rally. Thanks for putting me straight.

Your analysis would be very interesting if you break it out for UH by Home and Away. They usually suck on the road - see UNLV loss for example. But they whacked their best opponent on the road iirc. Go figure.

Yeah, I was going to point that out, too. I think Hawaii's home-field advantage (and away-field disadvantage) is always a potential factor, but this year it's hard to gauge - at home they beat the teams you'd expect them to (CU, UC Davis, Tulane, NMSU), lost to a pretty good team (USU), and a pretty bad team (Fresno).



On the road, they had a borderline-marquee win (LT), a noble-effort loss (Washington, who may or may not be good), and some real bad games (the SJSU loss, the Nevada loss, the narrow win over the Vandals). So if anything, I'd say the distance has hurt them this year.

before you bag on poor sackless 2-10 Colorado, keep in mind this is the team that had a 254-39 yard edge over Utah at halftime. Although Colorado tried as hard as they could to lose that game (kicker missed 3 fgs I think?) Utah simply wouldn't let them.



you know, the same Utah that put up 50 on our vaunted defense.

CougarClaw wrote:
before you bag on poor sackless 2-10 Colorado, keep in mind this is the team that had a 254-39 yard edge over Utah at halftime. Although Colorado tried as hard as they could to lose that game (kicker missed 3 fgs I think?) Utah simply wouldn't let them.



you know, the same Utah that put up 50 on our vaunted defense.

Claw...................What a difference a good QB or 2 makes. Imagine a role reversal. What if we had played with them with Nelson vs Hays. Double whammy. I would pay to see that rematch.

CougarClaw wrote:
before you bag on poor sackless 2-10 Colorado, keep in mind this is the team that had a 254-39 yard edge over Utah at halftime. Although Colorado tried as hard as they could to lose that game (kicker missed 3 fgs I think?) Utah simply wouldn't let them.



you know, the same Utah that put up 50 on our vaunted defense.

Ummm...wasn't half of that 50 on our vaunted offense? It's hard to say that they scored on our defense when the defense wasn't even on the fieldm. Do you believe that as soon as the turnover occoured, the defense had an obligation to rush onto the field and stop them from scoring?



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CougarClaw wrote:
before you bag on poor sackless 2-10 Colorado, keep in mind this is the team that had a 254-39 yard edge over Utah at halftime. Although Colorado tried as hard as they could to lose that game (kicker missed 3 fgs I think?) Utah simply wouldn't let them.



you know, the same Utah that put up 50 on our vaunted defense.

Any team that goes 3-10 with a PAC schedule this year is just plain bad. A loss to Hawaii, bad, a loss to Wash. St., bad, a 45-6 route by UCLA, bad, a 48-14 route by Az. St., bad. Don't show me the one nut a blind squirrel has found as evidence that he's got food stored for the winter.

Schmoe wrote:

before you bag on poor sackless 2-10 Colorado, keep in mind this is the team that had a 254-39 yard edge over Utah at halftime. Although Colorado tried as hard as they could to lose that game (kicker missed 3 fgs I think?) Utah simply wouldn't let them.



you know, the same Utah that put up 50 on our vaunted defense.

Any team that goes 3-10 with a PAC schedule this year is just plain bad. A loss to Hawaii, bad, a loss to Wash. St., bad, a 45-6 route by UCLA, bad, a 48-14 route by Az. St., bad. Don't show me the one nut a blind squirrel has found as evidence that he's got food stored for the winter.

Compare and Contrast CU, AZ, and OSU. They are all roughly the same. Quite frankly, with Wynn gone and White hobbled. Throw the current Utah team in that pile. It will be interestng to see what Norm and Kyle can fix in the month they have to get healthy and / or prepare back-ups for their Bowl game.

Back when Riley first got the starting job, I came to really like the stat of comparative PER for both offense and defense. I don't know how good it is as prognostication, but it seems like comparing a team's offensive and defensive performance against their opponents' means feels like a good way to determine what sort of performance our QB/secondary SHOULD have against an opponent. I'll do the same for Hawaii.



Three notes - first, comparative defensive PER is a stat that can actually become LESS reliable as a season progresses - many teams will make changes at QB, which lead to wildly different PERs in later games in the season vs. early in the season.



Second, PER averages on both sides of the ball can be heavily influenced by out of conference strength of schedule. For that reason, all of the following stats are based on WAC conference play only.



Third - I may do pass offense later, but Graves and Austin have so few snaps against so few teams I doubt it'd be very illuminating.



Pass defense -



@LT: 118.66 allowed, 130.38 avg, 11.72 diff

@SJSU: 134.26 allowed, 125.79 avg, -8.47 diff

NMSU: 145.29 allowed, 134.69 avg, -10.6 diff

@Idaho: 58.91 allowed, 101.28 avg, 42.37 diff*

USU: 167.9 allowed, 149.14 avg, -18.76 diff**

@Nev: 175.19 allowed, 148.73 avg, -26.46 diff

Fresno: 166.78 allowed, 158.22 avg, -8.56 diff



*At Idaho, Hawaii faced 2 quarters (I think) of the same backup who threw for negative yardage against BYU. Might explain the PER.

** USU was half-Keeton, half-Kennedy, if I remember correctly.



I think the numbers establish that, aside from the LT game and maybe the Idaho game, Hawaii plays a pass defense slightly worse than the average WAC team.

Uh oh. Looks like we've gained another convert to the power of PER!



We should be able to move the ball effectively against Hawaii's defense.



Where I think we need to be careful is on special teams. We've given up a few big returns (although no TDs, if I remember correctly) that have led to short fields. ST is largely emotion and momentum building - something we can't give Hawaii.



I think Hawaii will move the ball and score some points, but I think we'll win 30s to 10s.