Two Thoughts after the Wisconsin Game

I admit I'm not the most basketball savvy guy, but after watching the Wisconsin game I have two thoughts:



1) Does basketball have a statistic that is the equivalent of baseballs WAR (Wins Above Replacement)? If so, how horrible is Stephen Rogers' rating? The guy was out of control on offense, and out of position on defense.



2) Where did the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup disappear to in the second half? That was the lineup that brought us back from a double-digit deficit in the first half, but that same group never saw the floor together in the second half where the Cougars struggled to score double digits. Hard to understand how BYU never went back to that.

Wisconsin is good. But they weren't head and shoulders better than us. I think that's a game we could have won at home. We probably still lose that game, though.



Also, I don't like Bo Ryan's style. I'm not a fan of the go ballistic on every play/call that doesn't go my team's way coach.

IMO, Winder got kind of overwhelmed guarding an All-American candidate. Taylor was pretty impressive. He could go off anytime needed. BUt a great point.

But more, Where did Waldo Davies go? Though he didnt dissappear, his 2nd half performance hurt this team more than any other. ROgers was also a problem. But the defensive scheme against a hot shooting team, especially Brust, did us in.

We got Jimmered.

Davies didn't disappear. He just turned it over every time he touched the ball in the 2nd half.

A team that can compete in the first half, can compete in the second half; so why didn't they? Their perimeter defense was non-existent, why? coaching? defense can be played whether your shots are falling or not. And where was Harrison? he's supposed to be a really good player, then can he play against other really good players? And so what if Winder was guarding an all-American? can he not learn to compete too? Davies only impresses me on rare occasions, the Wisconsin game revealed he might not be nearly as good as everybody thinks he should be. Rogers is a non-factor in most games, he's not going to win many games for BYU.



Start with Hartsock and Abuou, and make Winder and Harrison learn to play, compete, score and win games for you, then Davies will not have to be superman, which he isn't and can't be.

These guys can be a good team, but Rose should know by now who can play and who can't, and get the players on the floor.

snoscythe wrote:
I admit I'm not the most basketball savvy guy, but after watching the Wisconsin game I have two thoughts:



1) Does basketball have a statistic that is the equivalent of baseballs WAR (Wins Above Replacement)? If so, how horrible is Stephen Rogers' rating? The guy was out of control on offense, and out of position on defense.



2) Where did the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup disappear to in the second half? That was the lineup that brought us back from a double-digit deficit in the first half, but that same group never saw the floor together in the second half where the Cougars struggled to score double digits. Hard to understand how BYU never went back to that.

Not sure on the statistic, but it was when Davies was on the bench and Rogers was in that we held Wisconsin in check. Yes, Rogers made mistakes (Davies made a whole lot more) but his length out on the perimeter was invaluable in keeping Wisconsin's 3 point shooters in check. Winder and Cusic were absolutely horrible on defense and we got no offensive production from them. Rogers and Harrison were our only guards that posed threats on the floor. We lost that game in large part due to a complete absence of a perimeter game. IMO, Rogers and Harrison should have seen more PT.



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Here's the biggest problem with this team this year: they don't have a slump buster. The problem in the Wisconsin game and in the USU game was that there was no one that could stop the 5 minute long scoring drought.



This team doesn't need a Jimmer Fredette, but it needs someone that can take and make the tough shots when they are needed.

stuckinbig10country wrote:
Here's the biggest problem with this team this year: they don't have a slump buster. The problem in the Wisconsin game and in the USU game was that there was no one that could stop the 5 minute long scoring drought.



This team doesn't need a Jimmer Fredette, but it needs someone that can take and make the tough shots when they are needed.

Basically someone that can create their own shot.

I admit I have not yet watched a BYU game this year. But you guys are saying we don't have anybody who can create their own shot? Davies can't? Winder can't? Harrison can't? I find that hard to believe. All these guys were heavily recruited, do they not have skills? Winder is a readshirt, Davies a Junior--none of these guys can play basketball?

golong wrote:
I admit I have not yet watched a BYU game this year. But you guys are saying we don't have anybody who can create their own shot? Davies can't? Winder can't? Harrison can't? I find that hard to believe. All these guys were heavily recruited, do they not have skills? Winder is a readshirt, Davies a Junior--none of these guys can play basketball?

None of them put it on the floor and "create" their own shot.



Davies is fed the ball from the wing, usually with his back to the basket. He puts the ball on the floor about half the time, but he's set up for the shot.



Noah usually comes off a screen for a shot, rotates out to the post for a pass or also gets a pass down low. He rarely, if ever dribbles with the ball to get around a defender, get open, and take a shot. He did it a couple of times against Wisconsin, and I hope he does more of it, but so far it's not in his normal repertoire.



Winder has the potential and did so against lesser opponents, but most of the time when he takes it to the lane or puts the ball on the floor to create an open shot it's while on the fast break.



Harrison has the potential, but is still adjusting to the game and doesn't get the PT or the touches to really have the opportunity to get creative. He tries every now and then with some success. He came out to play against Wisconsin and I wish he was left in as he was having success.



Rogers tries to create his own shot as well, but his efforts appear to be frowned upon. He'll take it off the dribble and try to work around a defender, but I get the impression Rose would prefer he be a spot up shooter. Again, I prefer Rogers on the court over Zylstra, but I suspect the reason we see Zylstra out there more is due to Rose's ideal that the shooting guard/small forward be a spot up shooter.



In short, no we do not have someone that "creates" their own shots. There are a few potentials, but it's definitely needed. Our guards were absolute no-shows last night and that's where you would typically expect "creative" play from.



Teams that do well come March usually have at least one of the following: 1) prolific guards that can create; or 2) a big man that dominates. Teams that have both, usually go past the Sweet 16. We're more of a #2 team right now. Wisconsin has both.

Gunk wrote:

I admit I'm not the most basketball savvy guy, but after watching the Wisconsin game I have two thoughts:



1) Does basketball have a statistic that is the equivalent of baseballs WAR (Wins Above Replacement)? If so, how horrible is Stephen Rogers' rating? The guy was out of control on offense, and out of position on defense.



2) Where did the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup disappear to in the second half? That was the lineup that brought us back from a double-digit deficit in the first half, but that same group never saw the floor together in the second half where the Cougars struggled to score double digits. Hard to understand how BYU never went back to that.

Not sure on the statistic, but it was when Davies was on the bench and Rogers was in that we held Wisconsin in check.

From when BYU was down 8-17 until they got to 24-24, Rogers doesn't even show up in the box score. Here's the stat line from when BYU got back in the game. Abuou goes 0-2, 1 blk, 1 reb; Hartsock goes 1-4, 3 reb, 1 blk, 2-2 FT; Zylstra goes 1-2 , 3 reb; Harrison 1-2, 2-2 FT, oh yeah, and Davies went 2-3 with 1 reb, 1-1 FT and 2 steals.



Rogers came into the game at 7:45, with the score at 24-26, after Davies was on the floor scoring 5 points in a 16-7 point run to get the Cougars back to a tie game. After Rogers shows up and subs out Austin, the Cougars' run ends and they finish the half 8-8.



So tell me, if Davies was in and contributing when we made the run to get back in the game (obviously not on the bench at that point....in the game until 8:05 when the score was TIED at 24-24), are we suddenly to think that the Cougars are better with Rogers in the game when the run ends and you start trading baskets? Note that, after entering the game, Rogers had one turnover that led to a three-point basket, and the guy he was supposed to be defending hit two WIDE open threes when Rogers failed to rotate on defense--one of those being the three after his turnover. So Rogers' TO and lack of defense gave the Badgers 6 of their 8 points to end the half.....Rogers' guy scored 6 points in 6 minutes after the entire Wisconsin team scored only 7 during BYU's run.....with Davies on the floor. :skeptic:

snoscythe wrote:

snoscythe wrote:
I admit I'm not the most basketball savvy guy, but after watching the Wisconsin game I have two thoughts:



1) Does basketball have a statistic that is the equivalent of baseballs WAR (Wins Above Replacement)? If so, how horrible is Stephen Rogers' rating? The guy was out of control on offense, and out of position on defense.



2) Where did the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup disappear to in the second half? That was the lineup that brought us back from a double-digit deficit in the first half, but that same group never saw the floor together in the second half where the Cougars struggled to score double digits. Hard to understand how BYU never went back to that.

Not sure on the statistic, but it was when Davies was on the bench and Rogers was in that we held Wisconsin in check.

From when BYU was down 8-17 until they got to 24-24, Rogers doesn't even show up in the box score. Here's the stat line from when BYU got back in the game. Abuou goes 0-2, 1 blk, 1 reb; Hartsock goes 1-4, 3 reb, 1 blk, 2-2 FT; Zylstra goes 1-2 , 3 reb; Harrison 1-2, 2-2 FT, oh yeah, and Davies went 2-3 with 1 reb, 1-1 FT and 2 steals.



Rogers came into the game at 7:45, with the score at 24-26, after Davies was on the floor scoring 5 points in a 16-7 point run to get the Cougars back to a tie game. After Rogers shows up and subs out Austin, the Cougars' run ends and they finish the half 8-8.



So tell me, if Davies was in and contributing when we made the run to get back in the game (obviously not on the bench at that point....in the game until 8:05 when the score was TIED at 24-24), are we suddenly to think that the Cougars are better with Rogers in the game when the run ends and you start trading baskets? Note that, after entering the game, Rogers had one turnover that led to a three-point basket, and the guy he was supposed to be defending hit two WIDE open threes when Rogers failed to rotate on defense--one of those being the three after his turnover. So Rogers' TO and lack of defense gave the Badgers 6 of their 8 points to end the half.....Rogers' guy scored 6 points in 6 minutes after the entire Wisconsin team scored only 7 during BYU's run.....with Davies on the floor. :skeptic:

I like the break down. Let me fill in a few gaps, though.



19:10 - Davies turns it over. Wisconsin sinks a 3. Wisconsin up 6 to 2.

14:02 - Davies turns it over. Wisconsin dunks it, Davies fouls on the play resulting in a 3 point play. Wisconsin up 22 to 10.

8:05 - Foul on Davies. Wisconsin hits two free-throws. Wisconsin up 26 to 24.



In the first 12 min of the game, Davies put up 7 points while turning the ball over twice and fouling twice, directly resulting in 8 points for Wisconsin and him on the bench. So, part of the reason we were in such a hole to begin with was Davies' play.



Wisconsin went 5/6(83%) from the arc in first 12 min of the game before Rogers came in.



Wisconsin went 2/8 (25%) from the arc in the last 8 min of the half after Rogers came in. Wisconsin put up 26 points in the first 12 min, or 2.2 points/min. Wisconsin put up 8 points in the final 8 min, or 1 point/min.



In 8 min of play, Rogers chipped in 6 points (.75 pts/min). In 12 min of play in the first half, Davies chipped in 7 points (.58 pts/min). I think it's clear on a points/min evaluation who the better scorer was. Davies had 2 TOs and 2 Fouls. Rogers had 1 TO.



Yes, Rogers' man (I believe we were actually playing a zone at this point) hit 2 three pointers, but Ben Brust also missed 2 during the same time, going 2/4 (50%) in the first half. Brust didn't attempt any three pointers until 18 min into the game.



In the second half, Brust went 5/6 (83%). Rogers was only in the game in the second half for 4 minutes. Brust hit 1 three pointer in that stretch. So, you can only "blame" Rogers for 3 out of the 7 three pointers Brust hit while you can attribute him to holding Brust to 60% from three-point land - 23% lower than what BYU did when Rogers was off the court.

Gunk wrote:

Gunk wrote:

I admit I'm not the most basketball savvy guy, but after watching the Wisconsin game I have two thoughts:



1) Does basketball have a statistic that is the equivalent of baseballs WAR (Wins Above Replacement)? If so, how horrible is Stephen Rogers' rating? The guy was out of control on offense, and out of position on defense.



2) Where did the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup disappear to in the second half? That was the lineup that brought us back from a double-digit deficit in the first half, but that same group never saw the floor together in the second half where the Cougars struggled to score double digits. Hard to understand how BYU never went back to that.

Not sure on the statistic, but it was when Davies was on the bench and Rogers was in that we held Wisconsin in check.

From when BYU was down 8-17 until they got to 24-24, Rogers doesn't even show up in the box score. Here's the stat line from when BYU got back in the game. Abuou goes 0-2, 1 blk, 1 reb; Hartsock goes 1-4, 3 reb, 1 blk, 2-2 FT; Zylstra goes 1-2 , 3 reb; Harrison 1-2, 2-2 FT, oh yeah, and Davies went 2-3 with 1 reb, 1-1 FT and 2 steals.



Rogers came into the game at 7:45, with the score at 24-26, after Davies was on the floor scoring 5 points in a 16-7 point run to get the Cougars back to a tie game. After Rogers shows up and subs out Austin, the Cougars' run ends and they finish the half 8-8.



So tell me, if Davies was in and contributing when we made the run to get back in the game (obviously not on the bench at that point....in the game until 8:05 when the score was TIED at 24-24), are we suddenly to think that the Cougars are better with Rogers in the game when the run ends and you start trading baskets? Note that, after entering the game, Rogers had one turnover that led to a three-point basket, and the guy he was supposed to be defending hit two WIDE open threes when Rogers failed to rotate on defense--one of those being the three after his turnover. So Rogers' TO and lack of defense gave the Badgers 6 of their 8 points to end the half.....Rogers' guy scored 6 points in 6 minutes after the entire Wisconsin team scored only 7 during BYU's run.....with Davies on the floor. :skeptic:

I like the break down. Let me fill in a few gaps, though.



19:10 - Davies turns it over. Wisconsin sinks a 3. Wisconsin up 6 to 2.

14:02 - Davies turns it over. Wisconsin dunks it, Davies fouls on the play resulting in a 3 point play. Wisconsin up 22 to 10.

8:05 - Foul on Davies. Wisconsin hits two free-throws. Wisconsin up 26 to 24.



In the first 12 min of the game, Davies put up 7 points while turning the ball over twice and fouling twice, directly resulting in 8 points for Wisconsin and him on the bench. So, part of the reason we were in such a hole to begin with was Davies' play.

Only if you ignore the fact that 2 of those points came after BYU came back to tie it and if you count the three points that Wisc got off the bogus blocking call. So yeah, if you ignore those things, it was Davies fault we were doubled up early on....

In the second half, Brust went 5/6 (83%). Rogers was only in the game in the second half for 4 minutes. Brust hit 1 three pointer in that stretch. So, you can only "blame" Rogers for 3 out of the 7 three pointers Brust hit while you can attribute him to holding Brust to 60% from three-point land - 23% lower than what BYU did when Rogers was off the court.

LOL. Dude--Rogers came in, and Brust went 2/2 on threes (one off a Rogers TO, one off a Rogers missed 3 pt attempt) while Rogers was on the floor in the second half. It was after he hit his second wide open three when Rogers (yet again) failed to rotate that Rogers was benched. The reason he only got four minutes in the second half was because he was horrendous on D. In the game Brust went 4/4 from three when Rogers was too slow to rotate. That's what got him benched.



In the end I stand by the fact that the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup brought us back from a 22-10 deficit with a 14-2 run.....a run that stopped as soon as Davies left the floor and Rogers came in.

snoscythe wrote:
LOL. Dude--Rogers came in, and Brust went 2/2 on threes (one off a Rogers TO, one off a Rogers missed 3 pt attempt) while Rogers was on the floor in the second half. It was after he hit his second wide open three when Rogers (yet again) failed to rotate that Rogers was benched. The reason he only got four minutes in the second half was because he was horrendous on D. In the game Brust went 4/4 from three when Rogers was too slow to rotate. That's what got him benched.



In the end I stand by the fact that the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup brought us back from a 22-10 deficit with a 14-2 run.....a run that stopped as soon as Davies left the floor and Rogers came in.

Brust did not go 2/2. He went 2/4. Rogers didn't even attempt a 3-pointer in the 1st half. The run did not stop as soon as Rogers came in. It continued with Rogers grabbing 2 boards and making 2 jumpers and BYU taking a 30 to 26 lead.



Yes, Brust hits a three after Rogers' missed layup, but it's Wisconsin 3rd shot attempt on the possession after BYU missed two rebounds.



Rogers then turns it over and Brust makes his second 3 off of a fast break.



2:55 - Rogers misses a layup/gets blocked

2:53 - Wisconsin gets the rebound and BYU holds Wisconsin for 20 seconds

2:24 - Brust misses a 3-pointer (it was his first attempt of the night)

2:24 - Brust rebounds his own miss and passes to Jordan Taylor

2:17 - Taylor misses a layup, Berggren rebounds it.

2:11 - Brust makes a 3-pointer (his first make of the night)

2:08 - Rogers turns it over

2:05 - Brust makes a 3-pointer

1:09 - Brust misses a 3-pointer



I'm not saying Rogers played perfectly. But to say he was the momentum killer is inaccurate. I admit, I am wrong that it was Rogers sparking the come back. Looks like it was Harrison.



I would gladly accept a starting lineup of Davies, Noah, Abouo, Harrison and Winder with Rogers first off the bench. IMO, Zylstra doesn't belong in the starting 5.

Gunk wrote:

LOL. Dude--Rogers came in, and Brust went 2/2 on threes (one off a Rogers TO, one off a Rogers missed 3 pt attempt) while Rogers was on the floor in the second half. It was after he hit his second wide open three when Rogers (yet again) failed to rotate that Rogers was benched. The reason he only got four minutes in the second half was because he was horrendous on D. In the game Brust went 4/4 from three when Rogers was too slow to rotate. That's what got him benched.



In the end I stand by the fact that the Hartsock, Winder, Abuou, Harrison, Davies lineup brought us back from a 22-10 deficit with a 14-2 run.....a run that stopped as soon as Davies left the floor and Rogers came in.

Brust did not go 2/2. He went 2/4. Rogers didn't even attempt a 3-pointer in the 1st half. The run did not stop as soon as Rogers came in. It continued with Rogers grabbing 2 boards and making 2 jumpers and BYU taking a 30 to 26 lead.



Yes, Brust hits a three after Rogers' missed layup, but it's Wisconsin 3rd shot attempt on the possession after BYU missed two rebounds.



Rogers then turns it over and Brust makes his second 3 off of a fast break.



2:55 - Rogers misses a layup/gets blocked

2:53 - Wisconsin gets the rebound and BYU holds Wisconsin for 20 seconds

2:24 - Brust misses a 3-pointer (it was his first attempt of the night)

2:24 - Brust rebounds his own miss and passes to Jordan Taylor

2:17 - Taylor misses a layup, Berggren rebounds it.

2:11 - Brust makes a 3-pointer (his first make of the night)

2:08 - Rogers turns it over

2:05 - Brust makes a 3-pointer

1:09 - Brust misses a 3-pointer



I'm not saying Rogers played perfectly. But to say he was the momentum killer is inaccurate. I admit, I am wrong that it was Rogers sparking the come back. Looks like it was Harrison.



I would gladly accept a starting lineup of Davies, Noah, Abouo, Harrison and Winder with Rogers first off the bench. IMO, Zylstra doesn't belong in the starting 5.

My post you replied to was regarding the second half.....where Brust went 2/2 on threes with Rogers slow on the rotation, ending with Rogers getting benched for the remainder of the game.....unless you thought I was referring to half time as Rogers getting benched. ;)

snoscythe wrote:

My post you replied to was regarding the second half.....where Brust went 2/2 on threes with Rogers slow on the rotation, ending with Rogers getting benched for the remainder of the game.....unless you thought I was referring to half time as Rogers getting benched. ;)

I'm a fan of Rogers, so opted to go back and watch the game.



We couldn't be more off, Sno.



Brust's 1st 3 pointer of the game came off of a scramble with 2:12 left to play in the first half. Cusic was right in Brust's face. Rogers was down low recovering from the missed rebound.



Brust's 2nd 3 pointer came with 2:04 left in the first half. It was off an inbounds pass. Harrison was nearest as Rogers was down low doubling up with Noah on Wisconsin's big man. Harrison missed the rotation.



In the second half, Brust hits a 3 pointer at 13:04. It's Cusic that left him wide open.



At 12:21 Rogers comes in. BYU is playing zone and Rogers is playing down low, bottom left.



At 11:20 Brust hits another wide open 3. It was Cusic's area. Rogers is on the other side of the court and not playing up top in the zone. After Cusic's 2nd botched coverage of Brust, Rose rotates Rogers over to Cusic's spot at the top of the key.



At 8:47 Brust hits another 3. Rogers is slow to rotate over, but a hand is in Brust's face.



At 8:35, Rogers subs out for the game.



So, Rogers only missed one rotation on Brust.



As I mentioned earlier in other threads, it's our guards that failed to pick up on Brust, particularly Cusic. Your bone to pick is with Cusic, Sno. Brust only went 1/1 against Rogers.

Man, I hope Carlino knows how to rotate on defense. Our team seems pretty thin when it comes to talented players. We really can't afford injuries.

Qman wrote:
Man, I hope Carlino knows how to rotate on defense. Our team seems pretty thin when it comes to talented players. We really can't afford injuries.

He probably won't right away. Give him and Winder a few years and they'll more than likely both be much better defenders than they are this year.

Mars wrote:


How do you bench Rogers for poor perimeter D and not bench the entire team?



How do you get down 5, 10, 15, 20, and still try to run your offense IN THE PAINT!?

BYU was getting good looks down low. Just missed some point blank shots.