A brief glance ahead to Hawaii

We'll have two weeks to look forward to Hawaii, but just some quick thoughts -



- I suspect David Graves will be the starter when we play them. He had a better game than the other backup today. Graves threw for 2 TDs and zero picks, but his comp % was below 50%. I'll watch the FSU game later, but it looks like he does run - he attempted 11 rushes, but only gained 33 yards. No matter how much improvement he makes in the next two weeks, I can't imagine he'll be anywhere close to an upgrade over Moniz.



-I'll be rooting against them this week as they play Tulane - I don't want them to be fighting for bowl eligibility against us. (An aside note - while it is frustrating that BYU is not really playing for anything right now, at least we're not fighting for bowl eligibility.)



-Ignoring passing stats, which at this point won't accurately reflect Hawaii's abilities, I thought it would be useful to compare Hawaii to NMSU. Some numbers (not counting today's games):



Pass defense:

Hawaii - 136.74 PER allowed (84th overall)

NMSU - 136.20 PER allowed (81st overall)

Rush defense -

Hawaii - 3.68 YPC allowed (38th overall)

NMSU - 5.49 YPC allowed (117th overall)

Rush offense -

Hawaii - 103 yards/game (110th overall), 4.25 YPC (60th overall)

NMSU - 123 yards/game (92nd overall), 3.65 YPC (94th overall)



So, Hawaii is pretty similar in terms of pass defense as NMSU, and while they rush better than NMSU, it's such a tiny part of their offense that it really doesn't matter.



The only real difference is run defense, and I'm calling a mirage - Hawaii has better-than-average rush defense, but their stats are inflated by a total gift game from Colorado and a game against UC-Davis. In four of their last 5 games, they've given up at least 4.0 YPC, and the game they didn't (against Idaho) they gave up 3.96. Barring a total meltdown, I think BYU should be able to rush on these guys.



I guess my point is this - aside from the big question mark at QB, there's nothing really intimidating about Hawaii, aside from history and their fabled home-field advantage. And even that has been overcome by a mediocre USU team and a poor Fresno team. They have one quality win (Louisiana Tech) and some pretty embarrassing losses. If we can beat NMSU, we can beat these guys.

We should beat Hawaii and will be favored. If this game was in Provo, I would guarantee a win. On a neutral field on an aircraft carrier in the middle of the Pacific Ocean - I would give us 75% or better odds. I will need to do some research before I predict Dec 3, 2011 in Hawaii. There are so many intangibles and we are an inexperienced team with an inexperienced coaching staff.



Bronco was probably our DC when we last came here and got shellacked as a 12-0 team that just lost Staley. Or it was pre-Bronco. That was 2001 - a few days short of a decade earlier. Hawaii was a mediocre team that year iirc.



We are their bowl game. They hate BYU. The only thing in our favor there, is that some of that hatred shifted to BSU over the past decade - but now it is headed back our way. Us old goats with bad eyes and ears remember many overachieving Hawaii teams beating us, beating us up, or nearly beating us - when they weren't supposed to have a prayer. Doman remembers. Detmer remembers. It came within a whisker in 1984 Vs Bosco. There have been other times.



If you watched a lot of football yesterday or anyway with dramatic upsets, how many times did you hear announcers point out that football is a game of emotion. And then BYU has a coach who at times seemingly has none. Sometimes, like when he said there was less than zero chance he will stick around to coach as long as Lavell did, you have to wonder how much he likes coaching. I digress. Hawaii will have more passion about this game than BYU will likely bring.



Jet lag. Time zone. Late start and finish relative to Utah time - maybe our two recent late starts will help with that. But teams need to be ready to play - fully awake - from the get go here. UH can jump you early if you are still waking up or falling asleep.



I agree that looking at UH passing offense stats would be misleading. Kind of like looking at our recent rushing stats is. We do not rush with the same dominance with Nelson out. But when Heaps is sharp with his throws - we run pretty well. It opens it up a bit.



Re UH rush defense - every team has some outliers buried in their stats. We do. UH will make it tough for us to run and make Heaps beat them with his arm. If Riley plays - different dynamics in the details, but they would try to make him throw as well. If you remember last week, announcers kept making comments about the opponent making our D line mad or embarrassed with a good run and making them mad and then trying unsuccessfully to run again when those mad big boys stepped it up the next play and crushed them. Not to overgeneralize, but BYU has a guy or two or three in the trenches that have avrep of being talented but lazy. UH has some of those two. They will go harder Vs BYU than they normally go because of emotion.



It is hard to gauge either offense at this point due to QB changes. Hawaii will be weaker than they were - how much weaker is the question - they have two weeks to get better. With Heaps - the question is whether he has improved enough to deliver when under pressure. He was not pressured much at all yesterday.



Our D will be solid unless the O melts down or Special Teams melts down and puts them on the field with poor field position and little rest.



Our O will be tested - I am not sure how we will fare on offense. If Jake steps up in the picket and buys time and finds an open guy and throws with precision and touch under heat - we will be fine. Really fine.



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