Archived Topic

What the hay - let's talk Idaho football!

by Dcr36 · 11/10/2011

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Dcr36
Wasn't planning on doing this for the remainder of the year (except maybe Hawaii, and our bowl opponent), but I've got a huge paper due on Thursday, a huge cleaning project, and the main story in college football right now is soul-crushingly depressing. I could use a distraction.



Offense -



The Vandals have really retooled their offensive philosophy in the last couple weeks, so rather than spit up a bunch of numbers I figured I'd offer a write-up of where they're at right now.



1. QBs - Starting QB will be Taylor Davis, per Moscow's newspaper. Brian Reader has been the starter, but lost the job when Davis won against SJSU.



Davis has essentially 1 1/2 games under his belt. His stats the only two games this season with significant playing time -



vs. Hawaii - 6/17, 33 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 39.83 PER ( -92.03 below opp.'s mean PER allowed)

vs. SJSU - 13/20, 162 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 139.54 PER (+2.65 above opp.'s mean PER allowed)



So you have one abysmal performance, and one satisfactory, albeit low-volume, performance. Note that the low volume is TRUE low volume - unlike Nelson, who alters the pass/rush split by scrambling and improvising, Davis is going to either throw the ball or hand it off. In his two games, he has significant negative rushing yardage (i.e. he got sacked). Idaho has run the option under him, but it looks like they favor the triple option and don't use Davis as a running threat. He has decent mobility though, and made some good-looking throws rolling out of the pocket.



2. Receivers - Watch for Mike Scott - Idaho relies a LOT on him. He has almost twice as many catches as the #2 receiver. His YPC is a decent 12.62. Aside from that, not a whole lot to worry about. TEs don't make up much of their passing game.



3. Play-calling
- That low-volume passing game against SJSU is a recent development. On the season, Idaho's run/pass playcalling split has been:

278 rushes (46.2%) to 323 passes (53.8%)



I think that's deceptive, though. In the last two games, Idaho has run the ball 84 times times and thrown it only 44 times. Granted, you're bound to throw the ball less in winning efforts due to more manageable, short-yardage situations, but I have to believe that given their renewed focus on the run netted them a narrow loss against a better WAC team and their first BCS win on the year, they'll probably stick to running.



4. RBs
- As far as their run game is concerned - Idaho averages 3.11 YPC, good for 113th in the FBS. They've yet to have a game this year where they've averaged over 4 YPC against the opponent. For reference, BYU (which has not been a consistently good rushing team this year) averages 4.14 on the season. Their best rushing performance was last week against SJSU, where they rushed the ball 46 times for 183 yards and 3 TDs. While this could be genuine improvement, it doesn't really scare me: SJSU's weakness against the run has already been witnessed by BYU fans.



Interesting fact - Idaho's 3.98 YPC against SJSU was their season best, while SJSU's 3.98 YPC allowed on defense was THEIR 3rd best!



Personnel-wise, Idaho switched up their feature back against SJSU as well. Princeton McCarty, who's been Idaho's workhorse this year, only received 11 touches against SJSU, while Kama Bailey was given 19. Bailey cashed in the opportunity for 163 yards and 2 TDs including a 70-yard TD run. Bailey is 5-9 and 195. I watched about 2/3 of the SJSU game, and it was hard to tell what kind of back Bailey is. He had gaping holes to run through. He showed good straight-ahead speed but came to a pretty screeching halt when he had to change direction.



5. Drive sustaining
- A last note - Idaho stalls a LOT on offense. They lead the nation in total punts (73), averaging over 8 punts a game. Even against SJSU, they punted the ball away 6 times.



DEFENSE -

Total Defense - 406.4 YPG allowed (78th)

Pass Defense - 281.6 YPG allowed (110th), 134.93 PER yielded (81st)

Rush Defense - 124.9 YPG allowed (35th), 3.56 YPC allowed (35th)



Idaho's run defense is legit. Period. They've held Texas A & M and Virgina to respectably low rushing numbers. Hawaii is a bad rushing team, but a .71 YPC is nuts. In both YPG rushing and average YPC, they're comparable to (gulp) TCU. Fortunately, their pass defense is exploitable.



Idaho also holds opponents to a 31.11% conversion rate on 3rd downs - best for 11th in the nation. I would imagine that this is probably closely related to the aforementioned rush defense.



Aside from that, not a whole lot to mention. Red zone defense is pretty comparable to their overall defensive performance.



OTHER:




Idaho has turned the ball over 19 times this season, good for 91st. They have a -5 turnover margin - good for 96th (tied with BYU :~( ). Unlike BYU, however, they tend to turn the ball over several times each game, rather than turning the ball over constantly in one or two games.
S
SpiffCoug
I think we'll see a game very similar to the Idaho St game.



The Vandals may put a few early drives together to score some points, but I think they won't stop us at all.



The defense will make adjustments and we'll win the game before the half and put in the backups starting the 2nd or 3rd drive of the 3rd quarter.



No defense has really stopped our offense the last five games.
M
Mars


Idaho came back from 20 points down to beat SJSU last week- something Bronco has never done.



I wonder if missing Pendleton will make 3-7 points of difference for our defense.
A
ABYUFAN
Mars wrote:


Idaho came back from 20 points down to beat SJSU last week- something Bronco has never done.


You're right.... Bronco has never been down 20 points to SDSU...
M
Mars


Utah State, which was down to Hawaii by 21 points at halftime, won last week too. Funny how other coaches can do it.
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S
SpiffCoug
Look at who the teams are that they're coming back against and then look at the teams Bronco got down big to. Which teams are easier to come back against? Florida St or San Jose St?
A
ABYUFAN
Mars wrote:


Utah State, which was down to Hawaii by 21 points at halftime, won last week too. Funny how other coaches can do it.


We were down by 13 in the fourth quarter to Ole Miss, and came back to win... in your world, 13 isn't enough of a comeback to qualify as a comeback win, but the extra 7 points is difference enough to be considered significant?
F
frdbtr
I would rather just not have to come back from deficits, which for the most part our coaching has provided for me. Our coaching has been good enough to win over 70% of its games and we complain that they aren't good enough to come back from 20 points down. :roll:
D
Dcr36
...so yeah! About those Vandals!
F
frdbtr
Dcr36 wrote:
...so yeah! About those Vandals!


Maybe we should spot them 20 points so we can come back from that, win and then we could all praise bronco for motivating his team to come back.



Just kidding, I would prefer to just pummel them by 40 instead.
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ABYUFAN
Dcr36 wrote:
...so yeah! About those Vandals!

I have them as the second best team in their state, and I have us as the second best team in Utah. I see Idaho's best beating Utah's best, and Us easily beating Idaho's second best...
D
Dcr36
ABYUFAN wrote:
...so yeah! About those Vandals!

I have them as the second best team in their state, and I have us as the second best team in Utah. I see Idaho's best beating Utah's best, and Us easily beating Idaho's second best...


Utah State beats Idaho State, so we're looking like a pretty good 2 for 3!



I'm from Idaho, and I have no idea if any of the other schools (Albertson's/College of Idaho, CSI, Northwest Nazarene, etc.) even have football teams. Too bad Ricks is gone.
A
ABYUFAN
Dcr36 wrote:
Dcr36 wrote:
...so yeah! About those Vandals!

I have them as the second best team in their state, and I have us as the second best team in Utah. I see Idaho's best beating Utah's best, and Us easily beating Idaho's second best...


Utah State beats Idaho State, so we're looking like a pretty good 2 for 3!



I'm from Idaho, and I have no idea if any of the other schools (Albertson's/College of Idaho, CSI, Northwest Nazarene, etc.) even have football teams. Too bad Ricks is gone.


Capital may be able to beat Idaho State... ;) (but probably not Idaho)
J
jonnylingo
Given their coach said he thinks of us as a wac team i hope we come out guns a blazing and never let up.
A
ABYUFAN
jonnylingo wrote:
Given their coach said he thinks of us as a wac team i hope we come out guns a blazing and never let up.

I think of Idaho as a Big Sky team....
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C
Cougarbib
Idaho is a decent run defense team.



Riley, however, will add a dimension that tests that defense in ways it has not been tested previously in defending the run.



Idaho is a relatively poor pass defense team. Riley should be able to leverage our tall receivers and weave in some passes to the backs and tight ends to keep things balanced. When overmatched, they usually blitz alot. If they do - will it work? Other games - they play a prevent type of defense. They have done well at keeping points down vs some decent teams.



This is all going to come down to execution, ball security, lack of penalties, and special teams play. Special Teams may be an advantage for Idaho. They have a punter. Expect some long punts. We will need to sustain long drives. I think we will do just that.



If JP was healthy - I was going to be bold and predict a reversal of the score the last time these two teams met, which was in Provo and the score was 49-6 Idaho over BYU.



WIthout JP - I may do it anyway. Still deciding. Share your thoughts. I worry not so much about whether Riley can lead us to 49 points as much as I wonder if he will get the chance. There is always the risk of injury. There is the risk that we will get up by 21-0 or 28-0 early and Bronco will call off the dogs early and try not to score.



I expect that Jake could have success against Idaho if he moves out of the pocket more effectively when things break down - they would definitely blitz Jake - and waits for routes to develop. But if we have gone into run every down mode, he won't get the chance to put up TDs. So we may fall short of 49 even if we are playing well enough to put up 49. Those long drives will eat clock as well and unless we hold them to a lot of 3 and outs and dominate time of possession, we may not get enough drives before time runs out.



Back to the defense. We really have allowed a lot of teams to get a cheap TD somewhere during the game - sometimes several times. So can I really be bold enough to predict holdomg Idaho to 6 points.



Idaho has just switched QBs and the new guy led them to the huge comeback win after a slow start. That must mean he started to have things slow down for him. Can I muster the faith to think that our BYU D who has had a hard time creating a consistent pass rush is going to be able to get to this QB early and often and rattle him and get us a pick or two instead of a 70 yard punt and a 90 yard field.



We will need to get some short fields early to get to 49 points - let's call that our offensive potential. We will need a lot of 3 and outs to hold Idaho to two field goals.



Can we do it? That would be a worse outpouring of points and better point defense than the beatings that A&M or Virginia - the BCS teams the Idaho Coach said out-classed BYU laid upon them. Fresno State scored 48 on Idaho early this season but gave up 24 or so.



Can BYU prove that we are the best opponent offensively and defensively that Idaho has faced this year? Will we insist on giving them a garbage time score or two and a cheap TD along the way?



We had a BYE week. There were probably some recapturing the heart and soul speeches the last two weeks. The team probably focused on themselves and their potential and not the opponent. They talk like they are taking the game seriously.



I am still trying to figure this all out.
M
Mars


Idaho leads in the all-time series against BYU.



The last time we played them, they beat us by about 40 points.
S
Schmoe
Mars wrote:


Idaho leads in the all-time series against BYU.



The last time we played them, they beat us by about 40 points.


In 1952, I think.
C
Cougarbib
Schmoe wrote:


Idaho leads in the all-time series against BYU.



The last time we played them, they beat us by about 40 points.


In 1952, I think.


1955 iirc. 49-6 in Provo. Idaho is on a 2 game win streak vs BYU and is 2-1 overall. I was 4 years old and probably didn't know what BYU or a football was. But back then, the BYU team didn't know much about football either.



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