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Ken Pom

by Mars · 11/4/2011

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M
Mars


He predicts BYU will be the 38th-best team in the country this year. Usually, that's good enough to be one of the last teams missing the Big Dance, with some NIT home-cooking as the consolation prize.



His final record prediction is 23-7.



His 4 toughest games are listed as:

1. @ Gonzaga

2. @ St. Mary's

3. @ Utah State

4. @ Virginia Tech



Which is funny, because he says that Baylor will be the best team that we play this year (15th-best).

He doesn't list Bradley/Wisconsin, since the specific opponent isn't known yet.



He also predicts that we will lose 4 WCC games, with less than a 1% chance of going undefeated our 1st year in our new conference.



http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Brigham%20Young" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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SpiffCoug
If we finished 38th that would be a fantastic finish by Rose and the players.
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Schmoe
I'm suffering from inflated expectations from last year. Is it naive to think this group could be a top-25 team?
M
Mars
Schmoe wrote:
I'm suffering from inflated expectations from last year. Is it naive to think this group could be a top-25 team?

Probably, yes. But 38 is pretty dang good out of 330-ish teams, and it's something I think we are capable of doing.



I kind of think we'll lose nearly 10 games this year, but it's not like even that would be a terrible season by any means. It just means the season won't be Jimmered, and we won't have two double-digit wins over Top 10 teams and 2 NCAA Tournament victories.
B
beauso79
Schmoe wrote:
I'm suffering from inflated expectations from last year. Is it naive to think this group could be a top-25 team?


A lot of it will hinge on our guard play. We know we have a deep front line and a few shooters. But, being that Carlino is just a freshman in our system and is out until December there will be little time to gel and get on a roll early on. We could definitely be a top 25 team if someone like Winder was able to take the PG role and run with it until Carlino is eligible. That way we'd have a decent second option at the PG spot when needed. A lot of our success will depend on our guard play and so far I haven't been impressed
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BroncoBot
38 would be great. Very nice target for the players and Rose.
M
Mars


More adult basketball talk for any non-children on this board:



-The WCC is currently the 13th-best conference by RPI. Too early to mean much (the MAC is #1): http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



-The top 3 RPIs in our new league are:

28- Gonzaga

30- Loyola Marymount

152- BYU

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_wcc_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



-Utah State is #75. http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_305_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



-4 WCC schools have played a game, 5 still haven't tipped off yet.



-RPIforecast has us at #122. Expected final RPI of 24. Expected final record of 23-5 (13-3). USU's expected final RPI is 25, one spot worse than us, best they think we'll face all year. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Brigham%20Young.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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BroncoBot
Mars wrote:


More adult basketball talk for any non-children on this board:



-The WCC is currently the 13th-best conference by RPI. Too early to mean much (the MAC is #1): http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



-The top 3 RPIs in our new league are:

28- Gonzaga

30- Loyola Marymount

152- BYU

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_wcc_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



-Utah State is #75. http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_305_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



-4 WCC schools have played a game, 5 still haven't tipped off yet.



-RPIforecast has us at #122. Expected final RPI of 24. Expected final record of 23-5 (13-3). USU's expected final RPI is 25, one spot worse than us, best they think we'll face all year. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Brigham%20Young.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think they're giving usu too much credit with a 25. Byu as well. Hope the cougars live up to that though.
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SpiffCoug
Does KenPom represent accurate data yet, or does it still rely on last year's data like other systems? I think worrying about RPI after one game might be a bit early.
M
Mars
SpiffCoug wrote:
Does KenPom represent accurate data yet, or does it still rely on last year's data like other systems? I think worrying about RPI after one game might be a bit early.

I assume that it relies heavily on last year, and both BYU and USU should be down from a season ago.
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M
Mars


We are 44th in the current KenPom, with a D of 47 and an O of 42.

42nd in the RPI power ratings (WCC 11th).

Expected RPI of 30 at rpiforecast.

19th in Sagarin's predictor rankings (WCC 11th).
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scott715
Where was the WCC last year? I want to say 14.
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