Archived Topic

Going for 2 and other coaching frustrations

by Stirfry · 11/3/2011

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Stirfry
First time poster because I just can’t hold it in any longer. I’ve been reading CC (wayyyy too much) for the last few months and I don’t claim to have ½ the football IQ as some of you. I’m BYU till I die though and go to almost every home game and i've enjoyed the discussions on here.



At risk of being black listed after my first post I wanted to bring up some coaching things that have been driving me crazy. I really like Bronco but I don’t think he is without fault. I’m not old enough to remember the 1980’s glory years so when I hear people talk about BYU of old I think of the 90’s and Crowton and it makes me appreciate Bronco even more. I’ve been reading the posts on if Bronco is a good coach or not and one thing that’s been bugging me that I haven’t seen discussed is going for 2- (Yes, you can always paint a picture where going for 1 is better than 2 or 2 better than 1 but it seems like it’s not even a consideration sometimes.)



Texas Game: We score to go up by 12 and kick the extra point. Lose by 1. (The exact same scenario happened in the Utah game in 2010. I hope they at least thought about going for 2 after the Utah game example. Yes, we could have missed it and lost 13-12 but if the other team hasn’t moved the ball on you, aren’t they more likely to get two fluky scoring drives for 14 than 3 scoring drives for 13?)



Utah State: BYU touch down brings the score to 24-19 with 10 minutes left. We kick the extra point to get within 4. Going for 2 would have allowed us to kick a field goal had Riley’s tipped pass not been caught with 11 seconds left. (This could have easily been our 3rd loss out of 4 that we could have put into overtime using some strategy.)



TCU: Falslev’s return gets us within 16 points prior to the extra point. BYU goes for 1 bringing us within 15. I assume this is the theory of waiting to go for it to tie the game and not break the players’ spirits by missing it early. However, if we go for it after the Falslev return and make it, we only need 14 to tie. If we miss it, we can make it up by going for 2 following the next two touchdowns (if we get the opportunity). By waiting to get 8 with your last touchdown to tie the game you can’t make up for it if you’re not successful. (Unfortunately we only scored one more time and we gave up a field goal on that bogus head to head call.)



(Other coaching thorns in my side- Not having the correct shoes to play on artificial turf (TCU game). The receivers not knowing where to line up for the first 4 games. The seeming lack of unity with team Jake and team Riley. (This has to be on the coaches/team captains. D1 football should be about winning, not playing hard for the teammates you like the best.) Lack of emotion. I was so excited to see how viscous our defense looked at the beginning of the year. That’s how Utah looks every time they play us and we rarely look that way. After the first few games this year that intensity was gone.)



I don’t know of any coach that would be willing to come to be BYU that I’d trade Bronco for. However, the coaching staff doesn’t seem to prepare the team well enough to be able to “execute” at a high level. The coaches have to do their part if they want the players to do the same.
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Schmoe
The rule in football is you take the points over the chance. An extra point is all but automatic, a two-point conversion is far from it. Say we're up by twelve, we go for two and don't get it, and they score a TD and two FG's, then we lose by one BECAUSE we went for two. You take the points unless it's late in the game and changes how many possessions it will take to beat/tie you.
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Cougs_Rule
Mathematically speaking: 90% chance at 1 vs 20% chance at 2? No brainer.

(pulled math out of my backside, but they would have to be close.)
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snoscythe
dmcougar wrote:
Mathematically speaking: 90% chance at 1 vs 20% chance at 2? No brainer.

(pulled math out of my backside, but they would have to be close.)


I believe it's 99% v. 44%.
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Stirfry
I think Sno's numbers are close to what it is and if you further break it down running plays are a little higher than 50 and passing below.



It just seems like its not even considered. If your up 12 and go for 1, you're protecting yourself from the other team scoring on you 3 times. Your also setting yourself up to lose if they only score twice and they're touchdowns. The Utah and UT games are understandable as it's early in the game. I had the most difficult time with the UtSate game as I don't know why you go for 1 to bring it to within 4. Your running out of time and your stopping the other team. Mostly it's just frustrating that it never seems to be attempted especially when we have Riley who was born to run the 2 point conversion.



We can create a situation where this could hurt you both ways but they must have decided we're not going for 2 until there's less than 5 minutes left. If BYU needs scheme and execution to beat athleticism this is one thing they should try and use to their benefit more often. It falls under the same category as clock management.
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Mingjai
Stirfry wrote:
I had the most difficult time with the UtSate game as I don't know why you go for 1 to bring it to within 4. Your running out of time and your stopping the other team. Mostly it's just frustrating that it never seems to be attempted especially when we have Riley who was born to run the 2 point conversion.


I don't necessarily agree with it, but I suppose the reasoning is that if BYU doesn't get the 2 at 24-19 and then USU kicks a field goal to go up 27-19, BYU would need a TD plus 2 just to tie. Of if BYU doesn't get the 2 at 24-19, and then scores a subsequent TD to go up 25-24, BYU needs a 2-point conversion to keep USU from winning on a FG.



Here's an explanation of why a Nelson-led offense is difficult to defend for 2-point conversions (based on NFL stats):



http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/almost-always-go-for-2-point.html
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SpiffCoug
I'd be a fan of going for two much more often. I'd also be a fan of going for it on a lot more on 4th down once I crossed mid-field.
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CougarClaw
snoscythe wrote:
Mathematically speaking: 90% chance at 1 vs 20% chance at 2? No brainer.

(pulled math out of my backside, but they would have to be close.)


I believe it's 99% v. 44%.


so if we were to weight the two decisions based on Sno's percentages, that would mean we average .99 points when we kick, and .88 points when we go for two. On average and without situational factors.
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snoscythe
CougarClaw wrote:
dmcougar wrote:
Mathematically speaking: 90% chance at 1 vs 20% chance at 2? No brainer.

(pulled math out of my backside, but they would have to be close.)


I believe it's 99% v. 44%.


so if we were to weight the two decisions based on Sno's percentages, that would mean we average .99 points when we kick, and .88 points when we go for two. On average and without situational factors.


The other side of it is this--those averages are for (no pun intended) average teams. If you practice and develop a skill at converting 2 pt conversions, you would only have to improve by 6% to equal your maximum point optimization for kicking extra points.



However, you have to look at consistency as well. Just because you succeed at something more than half the time doesn't mean that every Saturday you will succeed in more than half of your attempts. The law of averages tells you that regardless of whether you are going for 2 or taking the 1, some games are going to be better than others. If you are going for two and you are a 55% converting team, you are going to have some games where you go 3-4, and others where you go 1-4. Those pendulum swings in single-game performance are flattened when you are doing something at a 99% success rate--the law of averages there is that some games you go 3-4, and other games you go 4-4. Common sense also tells you that in going for two you are going to be more successful against patsies where the 2 point conversions mean less, but that you will convert at a lower clip against good defenses, i.e. close games where leaving a few points on the field could be the difference in the game.
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Mingjai
CougarClaw wrote:
dmcougar wrote:
Mathematically speaking: 90% chance at 1 vs 20% chance at 2? No brainer.

(pulled math out of my backside, but they would have to be close.)


I believe it's 99% v. 44%.


so if we were to weight the two decisions based on Sno's percentages, that would mean we average .99 points when we kick, and .88 points when we go for two. On average and without situational factors.


NFL Success Rates of PATs (2000-09):

Kick: 98.3%

Pass: 43.4%

RB Run: 57.4%

QB Run: 74.5%



Expected Value of Outcome:

Kick: 0.983 points

Pass: 0.868 points

RB Run: 1.148 points

QB Run: 1.490 points



Generally teams should be attempting slightly more designed runs when going for 2, though the model doesn't account for other environmental variables like home/away, formation, and score.



The QB Run category is misleading because very few of them are designed runs--most of the time the QB goes back to pass, finds no one open, and makes something happen with his feet. At any rate, it illustrates how valuable a mobile QB and a good running game are in going for 2.
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Y 4 Ever
SpiffCoug wrote:
I'd be a fan of going for two much more often. I'd also be a fan of going for it on a lot more on 4th down once I crossed mid-field.


Amen! I love going for it on 4th down. And I love it when the other team does it too. Not sure why - guess those do-or-die plays make the game more exciting. In fact, I think that they should BAN punting if you are across midfield! Or just ban punting all together!



OK, maybe not really...but I DO love 4th down plays.
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CAFB_04-12
I'd love for a coach, for an entire year, decide to go for it on 4th down every time, always go for 2 pt conversions, and on-sides kick on every kickoff.
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Y 4 Ever
CAFB_04-12 wrote:
I'd love for a coach, for an entire year, decide to go for it on 4th down every time, always go for 2 pt conversions, and on-sides kick on every kickoff.


I'm surprised Oregon hasn't tried that yet.
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Brayden Green
FREAKING TIMEOUT USAGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!



We are miserable in the "2 mins to half" category. It is almost guaranteed that we waste a timeout on a stupid possession, allow the opponent a long-drive and score, and then either turn the ball over, or flounder innefectively.



Or, we start sending the kicker in with 10 seconds left on the playclock AFTER WE ALREADY USED OUR LAST TIMEOUT THE PLAY BEFORE TO DISCUSS WHAT WE WOULD DO IF/WHEN WE GOT THE FIRST DOWN AND SPIKED IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!



There are a dozen other examples of this kind of scatter-brained coaching with the clock winding down. Last year against Utah at the end of game, for example.



http://byutv.org/watch/c85ee0fc-4bc6-4b5e-915a-f3cfe008ab64" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Watch at 1hr 09mins to see one of the worst coaching (and execution) errors you will ever see... :gross: :skeptic: :sulk:
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