TCU will score Friday

Unless Bronco has a new scheme or some major twists in mind for Friday, TCU is gonna score a lot of points. More than I thought. I base this off NCAA passing efficiency stats.



Right now, TCU is #9 in the nation in pass efficiency at 164.45. Up to this point in the year, the best pass efficiency team we have played is USU at #48. UCF was #52. Texas #65. OrSt #73. Idaho State would rank at #88. Utah is #90. SJSU is #105. Ole Miss #111. Our pass D has feasted on weak sisters in the passing game, which could explain our high efficiency rating. That figure will be tested Friday.



Also, another strength is our red zone D, where we rank #15 nationally. USU Was the best we played so far at #9 in RZ scoring, and they put up points on us. TCU will be the 2nd best RZ team we have faced, coming in at #34 nationally. Ole Miss is #41, (we are #54), UCF is #70, ORSt is #92, SJSU is #106, Utah is #111, Texas #113.



Basically, our efficiency ratings are tied in large part to teh fact we have played teams that struggle to throw with efficiency and struggle to score in the RZ. TCU will challenge us in both areas like no team has before this year.



We are going to need to score points to win this one.

I agree that TCU is going to score points. About 27 of them. Or, in other words, not enough to overcome the 30 that we are going to score! :)

It's a definite possibility.



Keep in mind that TCU has faced pass defenses like Baylor (#97th in defensive PER), AFA (#117th), New Mexico (#120, good for dead last), Louisiana-Monroe (given up 150+ PER to every non-Sun Belt FBS team AND North Texas), and Portland State (a 4-3 FCS team). SMU is the second-best team they've faced, and they're averaging about a 130 opponent PER. I think Pachall is a good QB, but 5 out of 7 games on their schedule were basically "free stat inflation" sessions.



Really, SDSU is the only game of theirs that really impressed me, seeing that SDSU COMPLETELY shut down Denard Robinson the week before TCU lit them up. On the other hand, I've got Michigan ties in my family and I can attest that Denart Robinson is an incredibly "trick-or-treat" QB.

We will have to get pressure and take some risks. I am not sure if Bronco goes that route or not. I would think he would.



I do think it will come down to riley and co. can they put up more points than tcu. My prediction is that we lose by about two touchdowns.



I have faith that we can win though if we get it all together and bronco has a good gameplan. I am excited to see how riley does in this game. I hope he kills it. it would go a long way to cementing his position as starter which is good for the team.

TCU has also feasted on some poor PER defenses:



San Diego St, #48, 123.94

Louisiana-Monroe, #64, 129.89

SMU, #67, 130.71

Baylor, #97, 140.66

Air Force, #117, 155.54

New Mexico #120, 177.45

Portland St is an FCS team with PER Defense of 129.11



I think TCU is going to be able to score on us. I think they're the best passing offense we've seen. I think we're going to need to throw some new defensive wrinkles at them.



TCU is beatable and exploitable on both sides of the ball. More so than they've been the last several years. But it is still going to take our best game of they year and our best game against TCU in four years to beat these guys.

I hate throwing season stats at us as though that will dictate what happens in the next game. Baloney! BYU's stats are skewed because we could convert third downs (until Nelson), which means we didn't score much, which means we gave the ball back to the other team often. With Nelson, that has not been happening. Can Nelson do the same thing against TCU? probably not 100%, but it will be a factor. If Stephenson languishes on the sidelines most of the game, BYU will be in this game, if he's punting 8 times, we're doomed. Stats are meaningless for the upcoming game. And if a team's stats are lousy but their undefeated--who cares? IT's the score that matters, not the stats.



The stats thing is also true about other teams as well. Pachall can have a 70% completion percentage and just be off the next game and be at 50%, does that mean our D was terrific? maybe, or might just mean he wasn't very good that day.



Nelson just changes everything for us and for TCU. If TCU puts a spy on Nelson, then a receiver will be open, if they don't, then Nelson will run for yardage.

Don;t look now, but scoring is typically linked to offensive stats, like efficiency and red zone scoring %'s. Teams that score have better offensive stats. Teams that lose have worse stats. Stats are used to tell tendencies. That is what this is about. Not that hard to figure out.



Here is another stat: Teams that turn it over 7 times lose. In spite of all other stats.



And by the way, if TCU spies Nelson, they still have numbers on us if they rush 4. 5 O-line to 4 Dline +spy. That leaves no one just running open and free.

SpiffCoug wrote:
TCU has also feasted on some poor PER defenses:



San Diego St, #48, 123.94

Louisiana-Monroe, #64, 129.89

SMU, #67, 130.71

Baylor, #97, 140.66

Air Force, #117, 155.54

New Mexico #120, 177.45

Portland St is an FCS team with PER Defense of 129.11

TCU's PER against them?



SDSU = 156.4 (+32.46)

La.Mo. = 154.1 (+24.21)

SMU= 155.8 (+25.09)

BU= 146.9 (+6.24)

AFA = 175.6 (+20.06)

UNM = 201.8 (+24.35)

PortSt = 199.4 (+70.29)



So, TCU puts up a PER that is, on average, 28.96 points higher than the defense allows in general.



BYU's current PER defense is 110.77, so if TCU holds course, we can expect a PER from Pachall of 139.73.



On the flip side, BYU is holding opponents to 8.06 points less than their season PER average, so if BYU's defense holds course, we can expect TCU to put up a PER of 156.43 on the Cougars.



Given the outlier performance of Utah, where the BYU defense plain quit, I would expect TCU to put up a PER in between those numbers--between 140 and 155. Good? Yes. Insurmountable? No.



Now, anyone want to run the other side of the numbers and tell us what BYU's offense under Nelson has done against the opposing defenses' averages and what TCU's defense has done against opposing offenses' averages?

BTW, if anyone is interested in a more in-depth analysis as to how well teams are playing while taking into account the quality of opposition, this site is extra-handy:



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Think of it as Sabremetrics for football. As you can see, BYU is just a tick above average at #64, while TCU is pretty good, but a bit short of great at #34. Given that BYU is playing a lot better than they were early on, the gap (while still there) might not be as big as it seems on paper.

Good stuff, Sno. Thanks for the link.

We're doomed...probably shouldn't even play the game...

Gunk wrote:
We're doomed...probably shouldn't even play the game...

You are so right. This is exactly what we all meant. No chance. :whistle:



Ole Miss had a nice Motto: We may lose the game, but we will not lose the party.



BYU's ought to be "We may not win the game, but we will win the Fireside." ;)

Lawboy wrote:

We're doomed...probably shouldn't even play the game...

You are so right. This is exactly what we all meant. No chance. :whistle:



Ole Miss had a nice Motto: We may lose the game, but we will not lose the party.



BYU's ought to be "We may not win the game, but we will win the Fireside." ;)

And win the game! :lol:

Riley needs to kick the fat out of fatterson.

If BYU wins, I fully expect Fatterson to go on a tirade about how the game was stolen from him, and how he's never going to play BYU again because they somehow cheated, and that the refs involved will never be able to officiate another TCU football game.



In other words:



http://fatlip.leoweekly.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/baby_crying_closeup.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Ungoy wrote:
If BYU wins, I fully expect Fatterson to go on a tirade about how the game was stolen from him, and how he's never going to play BYU again because they somehow cheated, and that the refs involved will never be able to officiate another TCU football game.



In other words:



http://fatlip.leoweekly.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/baby_crying_closeup.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

he is a sore loser, that is for sure.

snoscythe wrote:

TCU has also feasted on some poor PER defenses:



San Diego St, #48, 123.94

Louisiana-Monroe, #64, 129.89

SMU, #67, 130.71

Baylor, #97, 140.66

Air Force, #117, 155.54

New Mexico #120, 177.45

Portland St is an FCS team with PER Defense of 129.11

TCU's PER against them?



SDSU = 156.4 (+32.46)

La.Mo. = 154.1 (+24.21)

SMU= 155.8 (+25.09)

BU= 146.9 (+6.24)

AFA = 175.6 (+20.06)

UNM = 201.8 (+24.35)

PortSt = 199.4 (+70.29)



So, TCU puts up a PER that is, on average, 28.96 points higher than the defense allows in general.



BYU's current PER defense is 110.77, so if TCU holds course, we can expect a PER from Pachall of 139.73.



On the flip side, BYU is holding opponents to 8.06 points less than their season PER average, so if BYU's defense holds course, we can expect TCU to put up a PER of 156.43 on the Cougars.



Given the outlier performance of Utah, where the BYU defense plain quit, I would expect TCU to put up a PER in between those numbers--between 140 and 155. Good? Yes. Insurmountable? No.



Now, anyone want to run the other side of the numbers and tell us what BYU's offense under Nelson has done against the opposing defenses' averages and what TCU's defense has done against opposing offenses' averages?

BYU's pass defense did better than both of those predictions--we held Pachall to a 138.9 PER. That is his worst PER outing of the season.



BYU pass efficiency defense was validated in my book last night. Not the best, but certainly good enough for us to win every game.