Riley's ceiling

While I still think he has a weak arm, his ability to buy time to allow our receivers to get open as well as his running ability are really helping byu be better. He has also become more comfortable in the pocket. He has definitely gotten better from last year.



Can he beat elite teams for us? I may hop on his bandwagon if he beats tcu. tcu is not last year's tcu, but they are a quality team and we are playing them in their backyard. i have been impressed with riley the last few games (despite the competition). I can't wait to see how he does at tcu because in my opinion this game is going to come down to who can put the most points up.



tcu always puts points up and they will put up a lot against us. so it will come down to riley and the offense outscoring tcu. More excited about this game than any we have played for a few weeks. I hope riley kicks tcu's trash. If we lose to tcu again i will be depressed.

I think his ceiling is pretty high. We all hate the Steve Young comparisions, but he is at least as good as Young was as a junior.



How he plays against TCU will go a long way to determining his ceiling. If BYU wins, then we can/should win the rest of the games this year.

jonnylingo wrote:
While I still think he has a weak arm, his ability to buy time to allow our receivers to get open as well as his running ability are really helping byu be better. He has also become more comfortable in the pocket. He has definitely gotten better from last year.



Can he beat elite teams for us? I may hop on his bandwagon if he beats tcu. tcu is not last year's tcu, but they are a quality team and we are playing them in their backyard. i have been impressed with riley the last few games (despite the competition). I can't wait to see how he does at tcu because in my opinion this game is going to come down to who can put the most points up.



tcu always puts points up and they will put up a lot against us. so it will come down to riley and the offense outscoring tcu. More excited about this game than any we have played for a few weeks. I hope riley kicks tcu's trash. If we lose to tcu again i will be depressed.

If Riley continues to play at this level, I don't know that we should even bother thinking about ceiling because it really does not get much better than what we have seen. If he stays at this level, he will have to be considered one of the better quarterbacks at BYU.



Now, BYU has played a bunch of dogs...so it is ok to have some reservations...but you have to give him 100% credit for playing at really high level. Heaps probably could have directed wins too...but Nelson is just playing at a different level.



While Heaps at his peak level is probably greater than Nelson at his current level, I am not sure it matters at this point.

pjmuli wrote:

While I still think he has a weak arm, his ability to buy time to allow our receivers to get open as well as his running ability are really helping byu be better. He has also become more comfortable in the pocket. He has definitely gotten better from last year.



Can he beat elite teams for us? I may hop on his bandwagon if he beats tcu. tcu is not last year's tcu, but they are a quality team and we are playing them in their backyard. i have been impressed with riley the last few games (despite the competition). I can't wait to see how he does at tcu because in my opinion this game is going to come down to who can put the most points up.



tcu always puts points up and they will put up a lot against us. so it will come down to riley and the offense outscoring tcu. More excited about this game than any we have played for a few weeks. I hope riley kicks tcu's trash. If we lose to tcu again i will be depressed.

If Riley continues to play at this level, I don't know that we should even bother thinking about ceiling because it really does not get much better than what we have seen. If he stays at this level, he will have to be considered one of the better quarterbacks at BYU.



Now, BYU has played a bunch of dogs...so it is ok to have some reservations...but you have to give him 100% credit for playing at really high level. Heaps probably could have directed wins too...but Nelson is just playing at a different level.



While Heaps at his peak level is probably greater than Nelson at his current level, I am not sure it matters at this point.

What I am saying is that Riley's ceiling appears to be higher than I originally thought. He has most definitely improved. Given our receivers take time to get open having riley out there scrambling around really really really helps the passing game. also with apo and hoffman being as tall and athletic as they are riley has learned to just throw it up and let them get it. i mean literally, he just throws it in hoffman's general area and hoffman probably comes down with it.



I hope his ceiling is high enough that we can beat elite teams with him. max was this way, beck was this way. given that riley will likely be starter through next year I hope that is the case with him. can't wait for friday.

TO Riley's credit, its higher than I think the majority of fans thought--coaches too.

I am glad Riley has had a chance to establish rhythm, confidence, and leadership with this Offense. He and this team will need it. If Riley leads this O to a solid performance and say 25-35 points, then his ceiling will started to enter him into the debate as to whether he is in the Class II QB's with Beck and Hall. BUt not automatic entrance.

He's improved, but he's NOT Steve Young in his Jr year. Understandable that some want to drink the kool-aid.

TCU will bring the wood to RN. If they can take RN down, they know they will win this game. I hope hubris has not gotten into his head.

Steve Young's junior year:

230 of 367 (.627), 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 18 INTs, 140.00 PER.



Riley so far his junior year:

55 of 89 (.618), 833 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 174.46 PER.



Young was decent his junior, but he wasn't all that great.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Steve Young's junior year:

230 of 367 (.627), 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 18 INTs, 140.00 PER.



Riley so far his junior year:

55 of 89 (.618), 833 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 174.46 PER.



Young was decent his junior, but he wasn't all that great.

BUt he was STEVE FREAKIN' YOUNG. There is NO comparison. It's stupid that some people are even comparing the two.





Plus: (let me give a few excuses why Riley's and Steve's stats are similar)

Steve Young's stats are qualitatively better because he only played top 10 teams. Riley has only played "terrible" teams.

Steve Young didn't have any quality receivers. Nelson has great receivers that catch everything Riley's weak arm can get past 10 yards.

Steve Young didn't have an offensive coordinator, a luxury for Riley.



;)

declocoug wrote:

Steve Young's junior year:

230 of 367 (.627), 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 18 INTs, 140.00 PER.



Riley so far his junior year:

55 of 89 (.618), 833 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 174.46 PER.



Young was decent his junior, but he wasn't all that great.

BUt he was STEVE FREAKIN' YOUNG. There is NO comparison. It's stupid that some people are even comparing the two.





Plus: (let me give a few excuses why Riley's and Steve's stats are similar)

Steve Young's stats are qualitatively better because he only played top 10 teams. Riley has only played "terrible" teams.

Steve Young didn't have any quality receivers. Nelson has great receivers that catch everything Riley's weak arm can get past 10 yards.

Steve Young didn't have an offensive coordinator, a luxury for Riley.



;)

The main reason riley won't be like steve young is that his arm is not as good as steve's was. Riley really does not have an nfl arm.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Steve Young's junior year:

230 of 367 (.627), 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 18 INTs, 140.00 PER.



Riley so far his junior year:

55 of 89 (.618), 833 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 174.46 PER.



Young was decent his junior, but he wasn't all that great.

I am one who shies away from Young comparisons...but to be fair, Riley has been tremendous.



However, qualitatively speaking, there really is no comparison. Young was a better athlete and did have a stronger arm. Young, like Beck, didn't really have everything click until his senior year. I think most quarterbacks would fall into that same mode...I can only think of McMahon and Detmer who were probably ready early.

Riley needs to beat TCU to make his stats stand up. We have feasted on poor teams, and Riley has looked good doing it. But we need to beat a good team this year to back up our record. TO be a good team, we need to beat other good teams. TCU game is a landmark game for Bronco and Riley. Both need this win badly. Perhaps Bronco moreso, but if Riley leads us to teh win, he locks up his job and will be the incumbent for 2012.

Lawboy wrote:
Riley needs to beat TCU to make his stats stand up. We have feasted on poor teams, and Riley has looked good doing it. But we need to beat a good team this year to back up our record. TO be a good team, we need to beat other good teams. TCU game is a landmark game for Bronco and Riley. Both need this win badly. Perhaps Bronco moreso, but if Riley leads us to teh win, he locks up his job and will be the incumbent for 2012.

So...this thread is making me wonder...what is everyone's expectation for Riley against TCU? We really have played some (frankly) boring competition. Riley is playing well, but contextually, there is still some room to wonder how much of a mirage this is.



What say ye?

136 PER is my standard for any BYU quaterback in any game.

Lawboy wrote:
Riley needs to beat TCU to make his stats stand up....

Maybe my standards have lowered, but if Riley can play efficiently (130 PER) while keeping BYU within 10 points of TCU and staying healthy in the process, I'll take as a sign that Heaps definitely needs to redshirt next year.

You play to win the game, not to hit a QB PER level. If Heaps played, my standard is to win. Same with Riley. Obviously, PER can correlate to increased winning, so the QB needs to play well. But at the end of the day, I take a win with a subpar QB game to a loss with great QB play. I want t beat TCU. We owe them.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Steve Young's junior year:

230 of 367 (.627), 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 18 INTs, 140.00 PER.



Riley so far his junior year:

55 of 89 (.618), 833 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 174.46 PER.



Young was decent his junior, but he wasn't all that great.

QB Rushing yards?



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Young had 114 rushes for 647 yards and 10 TDs.

Riley has 44 rushes for 284 yards and 1 TD.

Lawboy wrote:
Riley needs to beat TCU to make his stats stand up. We have feasted on poor teams, and Riley has looked good doing it. But we need to beat a good team this year to back up our record. TO be a good team, we need to beat other good teams. TCU game is a landmark game for Bronco and Riley. Both need this win badly. Perhaps Bronco moreso, but if Riley leads us to teh win, he locks up his job and will be the incumbent for 2012.

And - back in the glory days, when Young played, let me try to remember way back then - oh yeah - in the freaking WAC, we did not rely on beating bad teams and had many wins over great teams.



Missouri is Young's signature win as a senior. Look up Young Vs Ohio State - a 9-3 Ohio State iirc, as a junior, if you want to see a PER drop and a loss. Young did hang on for a close win over an OK UCLA team as a senior. Am I forgetting a big win in there somewhere. Look up Young Vs Georgia as a junior.



Young as a Soph lost to UNLV filling in for an injured Jim McMahon and beat 1 other WACish team. Ended up 1-1 with a loss to UNLV and no signature wins.



Young as a Jr. Lost to Georgia, Air Force, starting out 1-2 if you like parallels, beat a bunch of cupcakes, then Lost to Utah Freaking State, beat three more cupcakes, then got blown out by 9-3 Ohio State. Ended up 8-4 with a loss to USU and no signature wins.



Young as a Sr. Well do you think maybe it would be fair to wait until Riley is a senior to compare him to Young as a senior given that he seems to have the edge as a Soph, and so far as a Junior?



Young lost to Baylor and only Baylor. Young beat a bunch of WAC teams plus Bowling freaking Green, a nail biter where we were killing UCLA only to see them adjust and come within 2 points. He beat USU by 4 points - an improvement, and those were the mighty opponents. He did beat Missouri in a game that was closer than it was supposed to be on a half-back pass back to Young for the winning TD as time was nearly expired.



Young's signature wins - Missouri and UCLA his SENIOR year were his only BCS wins in his career. His signature losses - UNLV, USU, Air Force, and Baylor. Expected and understandable losses - Ohio State, Georgia,



Young's stock rose phenomenally after USFL fizzled, Tampa Bay fizzled, and he learned behind Joe Montana at SF 49ers under a great coach.



Nelson Soph - beat UW - lost to a very good AFA, got knocked out Vs FSU.

Nelson Jr - beat poor but improving OSU and some WACish teams. Did not lose to USU even after Heaps spotted them a big lead. The rest is to be determined. Enjoy it.

Nelson Sr. We really don't know yet - do we.



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Lawboy wrote:
You play to win the game, not to hit a QB PER level. If Heaps played, my standard is to win. Same with Riley. Obviously, PER can correlate to increased winning, so the QB needs to play well. But at the end of the day, I take a win with a subpar QB game to a loss with great QB play. I want t beat TCU. We owe them.

I want to beat TCU, but my expectations for Nelson as an individual player (albeit in the most influential position in football) in a team sport have to be somewhat tempered. BYU could win or lose despite what Nelson does, so I think it's only fair to judge him based on his individual performance. Team result is an important part of how I rate the QB, but it's not the only factor.

TCU is down this year. I have very high confidence that if Riley performs like he has against OSU and ISU we win the game by at least two scores. Their D is down a little with the DB's way down, and their QB has been just plain bad. Their O as a whole is down a fair amount. Our D is a good deal better than the past few years with our DB down a little but should be offset by a QB not making good plays (as long as we put pressure on him). Our O is about the same as last year at this time but may be a fair amount better if Riley continues to play like he has.



So I feel very good going into this game. We win and TCU ends with at least four losses this year.

Bib2: Riley's Sophomore year was not great. UW was good, AFA was pathetic and he's knocked out vs FSU. I have been slow to come around to Riley's camp mainly because of his play vs AFA last year. He had no pocket presence, no ability to throw the long, medium or short ball with much effectiveness and eventually he didn't even look to throw, just ducked his head and ran. I doubted he would be different than that this year, but I am pleasantly surprised at the improvement he has made and he is way, way better than last year (unlike Heaps). Steve Young he is not, but that can always change. Also, comparing teams that far removed by decades is difficult, as we all remember those teams being all offense and little defense. A straight up comparison of wins and losses is hardly valid.



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