BYU's O against TCU's D

Some long-winded thoughts about our offense's identity



Before we even talk about the QB and the passing game, I think one thing needs to be said - the improvements made in the run game have been infinitely more important in turning our season around than anything we've done through the air. I've seen some people worried about our offense because it seems to lack an "identity" - you can't slap an easily recognizable tag on it like "spread," "pistol," etc. I get that, but I do think our offense understands one thing very well - it works best when it keeps the ball on the ground. In chart form:



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The "Riley run" category is separate because this was originally part of a thread trying to determine how much of the run improvement was attributable to Riley himself vs. the rest of the team picking up the slack. I didn't make any interesting findings so I never posted it. Anyway, for those interested in how the trend continued - 27 passes vs. 44 rushes at ISU.



The running game has helped us out in a lot of ways - kept us from being one-dimensional, put us in manageable third down scenarios, allowed us to control the clock in the 4th quarter, etc. But most importantly, Riley Nelson's responsibility for moving the ball through the air has been significantly lowered by the run game.



For reference, in Riley's three games as a starter, he has attempted 24, 27, and 17 passes. Riley's 27 attempts against OSU would be tied for fourth lowest in Max Hall's entire BYU career. Additionally, it seems that thus far, you can pencil in Riley for something in the ballpark of 215 yards passing a game - he's been efficient, but he's been far from high-volume. And that's not a critique - he hasn't been high-volume precisely because he hasn't needed to be high-volume, thanks to the run game.



And that's my fear - if TCU was able to stop our run game, Riley would be forced to run a variety of offense that, thus far, he hasn't had to run. Could Riley be effective throwing the ball 35 times in a game? It's possible, but I would prefer to find that out against a team other than TCU.



Some thoughts on our run game - real improvement or illusion?



So the question follows - CAN we establish a run game against the Horned Frogs? There's no doubt that our rushing stats have improved dramatically - 144 total rushing yards in our first 3 games vs. 4 straight games of 200+ on the ground. A worthwhile question would be how poor the run D's we've faced have become - is this an illusion created by weakening competition?



Our opponents, ranked against all FBS teams in YPC allowed:

Ole Miss - #116 (5.5)

Texas - #64 (4.3)

Utah - #11 (2.8 )

UCF - #31 (3.4)

USU - #20 (3.1)

SJSU - #98 (5.0)

OSU - #58 (4.0)



Side notes:

-We're getting late enough into the season that conference strength starts to factor into a team's stats. Having said that, don't try to excuse Ole Miss' rank with "SEC" talk. The week after we played them, they got gashed hard on the ground by a FCS team with just as many wins as Idaho State.

-Our run game against OSU was impressive. Not only are they pretty good on run D, but we had the best YPC of their foes this year (5.88). Including Wisconsin: we averaged more than a extra yard per carry than they did (4.84).

And, as always, remember: UCF is a mirage. They've given up 5 YPC in their last two games against SMU and heretofore winless UAB.



Finally, a concern that extends beyond statistics - I'm a little worried about Michael Alisa. His stat line against ISU was fine, but a lot of those yards (2/3 of them, really) came on one run. He got stood up at the line a few times, which isn't what I want to see out of our feature back against a bad FCS team.



Some thoughts on TCU's run D



In the YPC allowed department, TCU ranks at 43rd, allowing a little more than 3.8 yards per carry. Looking at it on a game by game basis -



vs. Baylor - 36 carries for 150 yards (4.17 YPC). Averages 5.11 YPC.

vs. Air Force - 43 for 249 (5.79). Avg. 5.95. Remember - service academy rushing stats = totally useless for comparison to other teams.

vs. LA-M - 26 for 82 (3.15). Avg. 3.65.

vs. SMU - 24 for 112 (4.67). Avg. 4.76. Very low-volume rushing team.

vs. NMU - 37 for 64 (1.73). Avg. 3.43. New Mexico is really bad.



Conclusion - TCU WILL hold you below your YPC total. SMU had a good run game against them, but running is largely an afterthought under June Jones (SMU threw the ball 45 times against TCU). Baylor, who normally picks up a lot of yards on the ground, picked up most of its yards on quarterback heroics.



Conclusion



I feel bad saying this, but I just don't like the way we match up against TCU. TCU is beatable through the air - on average, a QB has a 135 PER against them, and I don't think it's coincidence that they lost to the two above-average passing teams they've played thus far.I think we CAN run the ball against TCU, I just don't think we'll see the type of efficiency that we've seen thus far, and thus I think we're going to see Riley in a lot more passing situations. I like Riley as a passer, but I have no clue what Riley will do as a passer in a pass-oriented offense, and I think, this year, that's what you need to beat TCU.

Throw out games prior to 2nd half USU.



Avg YPC since RIley came to the rescue. That will be a very big rushing total. TCU will hold us below that number. Substantially below. I am going to guess that the number - leaving out USU or normalizing USU to a full game - will fetch you something north of 200 and TCU will keep us south of 200. Let's say 150 and hope we can muster 150 - I don't like the thought of Riley running a lot becasue TCU will hit hard and often and gang tackle him - don't want to see him get injured. You can bet that TCU will look for opportunities to test his durability.



That leaves us with the need to pop 250 passing yards on TCU to win this game.





We might pull that all off - it will come down to whether turnovers, penalties, special teams play, or defensive miscues lose the game for us.



Riley will make plays and probably get picked or fumble once or twice in the process. We need to hope that he pops us up for 4 or more team rushing / passing TDs and / or a field goal to win this one.



TCU generally scores several more points than the average allowed by their opponents and more often than not, allows a few points less than opponents average.



I am even more impressed with their offense than their defense even though their defense will be good.



They seem better running the football than passing it. Crunch those numbers and make some graphs and see if that assumption holds true. That may put us in the same position - stop their run and make their QB beat us with his arm.



Defense needs to be a beast.

This is a "chicken or egg" type of conversation because Riley sets up his pass with his running ability. Defenses aren't able to dedicate more defenders defending our pass because Riley will tuck it and run. I think TCU has more to think about this year with our offense then they have since John Beck was here. (not to say that Riley is better then Max Hall but he does have an element to his game that we have not had in a qb for a long time) If BYU is going to win this game,it is going to be on the legs of Riley Nelson, if he can make thier defense pay for being aggressive, then it will open up the rest of the offense. I think he does it and we win a close one. 24-21.

I will go out on a limb and state the obvious; if BYU does not turn the ball over against TCU, we will win the game. I believe BYU will get a couple of turnovers from TCU, so if we secure the ball, we'll make enough plays to win--a close one, however.



Our OLine must play their best game of the year (it was not last week either), and we must get rushing yards to win this game. The OLine must make no mistakes, no false starts, no holding penalties, and open holes for our runningbacks. If the OLine gets out muscled or out played, we will have difficulty winning the game.



BYU 27, TCU 24

I have a feeling that our pathetic offensive line will get exposed yet again by a good team. Our only hope is to have a couple special performances from players making something out of nothing. Alisa and Riley will need to be magical because the line will not open up holes for them.

mizzoucoug wrote:
I have a feeling that our pathetic offensive line will get exposed yet again by a good team. Our only hope is to have a couple special performances from players making something out of nothing. Alisa and Riley will need to be magical because the line will not open up holes for them.

So how do you explain the OSU game? We had a monster game on the ground and OSU has been moderately effective against the run throughout the year. TCU's not much better than they are, statistically speaking. The difference between the two is just enough to cause me to worry, especially when you throw in the Gary Patterson factor.



I don't think our O-line is pathetic, I just think that, like so many components of our offense, it's failed to meet high expectations. It's looked serviceable-to-good since UCF, really.

I expect heavy doses of Alisa vs. TCU, and do not think we see Q, JJ and Kariya as often. And once BYU gets Alisa involved in the passing game--which I expect to see Friday, he really takes off. So far the tendency is to sub Alisa out on pass plays, put Kariya in on short runs up the gut, and use JJ and Q as hybrids. If we want to be less predictable, we need to have Alisa become the feature back, and gets used in passing downs. Less platooning, more touches for MA.

There have been some comparisons of Michael Alisa to Harvey Unga. So here's what Unga did against TCU:

2007: W 27-22, 23 carries, 110 yards, 4.9 ypc, 2 TDs, 3 catches 61 yards.

2008: L 7-32, 14 carries, 54 yards, 3.9 ypc, 4 catches, 40 yards.

2009: L 7-38, 21 carries, 123 yards, 5.9 ypc, 3 catches, 11 yards, 1 TD.