D
Dcr36Oregon State Offense
Points: 20.8 ppg avg (#97th in FBS)
Yardage: 389.8 ypg (#65th)
Pass yardage: 279.8 ypg (#30th)
Rush yardage: 110.0 ypg (#104th)
Defenses faced:
Sacramento State (FCS, and not even a good one at that)
Wisconsin (#7th FBS)
UCLA (90th)
Arizona State (43rd, one spot ahead of BYU)
Arizona (115th)
Play-calling philosophy: 145 rushes to 226 passes, (39.1% rush, 60.9% pass)
QB Sean Mannion -
Games with 20+ passing attempts (Sac. State thus not included)
vs. Wisconsin - 25/38, 244 yards, 0 TD 0 INT 119.7 PER
vs. UCLA - 24/40, 287 yards, 1 TD 1 INT 123.5 PER
vs. ASU - 40/66, 341 yards, 1 TD 4 INT 96.9 PER
vs. Az. - 32/41, 267 yards, 2 TD 2 INT 139.1 PER
Big plays-
15 plays total for 20+ yards, 7.6% big-play-to attempt ratio
6.5 yards per attempt, 78th among starting quarterbacks
Preferred targets -
Markus Wheaton (6'1", 178) 26.5% of all completions, 11.7 YPC
Jordan Bishop (6'3", 205) 14.7%, 14.1 YPC
Jordan Jenkins (6'1", 205) 12.8%, 7.4 YPC
James Rodgers (5'7", 188) 9.7% 10.6 YPC - Note that Rodgers missed the first two games of the season, and is very much in the mix as a #1 or #2 receiver option.
Rushing game -
- Malcolm Agnew is presumably their primary threat. However, he has been out since their opening week loss to Sacramento State. In that game, he managed to run for 223 yards, averaging just under 7 YPC. He was listed as doubtful w/ a hamstring injury for Arizona and did not play, I have not seen any indication that he will play.
- In his absence, OSU has tried a lot of things, including using Markus Wheaton as a running back for a few carries per game. Last week Jovan Stevenson finally had the breakout game that I'm sure OSU had been hoping one of their RBs would have, rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries.
- Oregon State tends to play better when they stick to the run, but they abandon the run game quite quickly. They attempted 66 passes (!) to 17 runs vs. ASU. Even more ridiculously, they ran the ball 29 times vs. UCLA but gave 13 of those touches to Terron Ward (who netted a total of 26 yards) but only 11 touches combined to Wheaton and Stevenson (who together were averaging over 7 YPC).
- A LOT of OSU's woes early in the season can be attributed to an inability to sustain a running game (and thus their willingness to abandon it). While I'm sure Arizona's suckiness had something to do with it (96th in rush defense), I do believe we're unfortunate enough to be playing OSU at a time where they've managed to figure out HOW to establish a run game.
Oregon State Defense
30.6 points allowed (90th)
130.2 rushing yards allowed (47th)
253.4 yards allowed (94th)
65th in total defense
Passer avg. PER compared to PER vs. Oregon State
Richard Wilson (WIS) 216.9 AVG, 203.7 vs. OSU*
Richard Brehaut (UCLA) 138 AVG, 205.1 vs. OSU**
Brock Osweiler (ASU) 147.3 AVG, 125.1 vs. OSU***
Nick Foles (Az.) 153.7 AVG, 137.9 vs. OSU***
*Don't read too much into this stat. Once you're in the 200s, it's all good, and Wilson had a pretty spectacular game against OSU. 3 TDs, no picks, and only 4 incompletions.
**Also an irregular game. Richard Brehaut only attempted 11 passes.
***Both Osweiler and Foles had good games against OSU in terms of racking up yards, maintaining a decent completion percentage and moving the football, but both struggled with turning the ball over (3 picks on Osweiler, 2 on Foles).
Final note - Fleming, the QB for Sacramento State, had a good game against OSU, throwing for 250+ yards, 3 TDs and no picks. I don't like to include FCS QBs' stats, but he was, once upon a time, a very bad quarterback for New Mexico State, I believe.
Rush Defense comparison by team
Wisconsin - 246.8 ypg, 208 vs. OSU
UCLA - 194.5 ypg, 211 vs. OSU
ASU - 129.6 ypg, 109 vs. OSU
Az. - 71.4 ypg, 53 vs. OSU
Pressure Defense -
9.0 sacks on the year, 76th in the nation (San Jose State managed to pressure Riley despite having only 3 sacks on the year, worst in FBS)
23 tackles for loss, 109th in FBS
Assorted stats:
- Oregon State has a -2 turnover margin for the year. They have intercepted the ball 5 times, all in their last two games. However, only one player, Jordan Poyer, has more than one interception (2).
- At 31.5 minutes per game, OSU has a minor advantage in TOP. I would be curious to see, based on their large number of pass attempts, some sort of number that showed how long they kept their defense off the field on average per drive.
- Last week vs. Arizona, Oregon State scored 24 of its 37 points off of drives that began within Arizona's 50-yard line. They did score their first TD on a 92-yard drive, however. Similarly, against Arizona, they scored one touchdown on a 78-yard drive, but scored the remaining touchdown and two fieldgoals off of an 11-yard drive, a 36 yard drive, and a 21 yard drive. Against UCLA, they scored 12 points off of long drives, but earned their other 7 on a kick return.
Some thoughts:
-I'm 90% sure that if we lose this game, it comes down to turning the ball over and subsequently giving OSU good field position. OSU can pick up yardage, but they have major issues with rhythm and sustaining a long drive. It's possible OSU is working those issues out, just as I believe BYU is fixing them as well. But if you put enough space between OSU and the end zone, 9 times out of 10 they WILL shoot themselves in the foot.
- Additionally, OSU has major problems with Red Zone conversions. Even worse than we do, actually - OSU is 40% TD, 35% FG, 25% nothing in the redzone, compared to our 44.44/33.33/22.22 split. I think this feeds into the previous observation - if you pin OSU deep in their own territory, they may make it to their red zone, but it's less likely they'll come away with six points.
-So far, five quarterbacks have faced OSU. Granted, one is a Heisman frontrunner, two are very good to great, and one does pretty well in a run-first defense. But all five have managed to put up very good numbers against OSU in terms of yardage, completion percentage, and moving the chains. However, Foles and Osweiler did themselves a disservice by turning the ball over. Assuming he maintains the starting position, Riley Nelson MUST do a better job of not turning the ball over. If I'm Coach Doman, pass selection and avoiding dumb mistakes are focus #1 for Riley this week.
-Interceptions aside, Riley Nelson should, statistically speaking, have a better game against OSU than SJSU. No joke, their pass defense is pretty bad. If he doesn't, either OSU has gotten better, they're a victim of tough scheduling, or I'll have to bitterly concede that there's truth to the "Riley is easy to gameplan for" argument.
-As fun as it was to see Alisa plow through SJSU last week, I still take it for a grain of salt - SJSU is REALLY BAD on the run. Conversely, OSU has pretty good run D, statistically speaking. They've faced two of the best run offenses in the country (Wisconsin and UCLA, who apparently are still doing that pistol thing in Chow's absence). They gave up a fair number of yards to them, but kept both of them (especially Wisconsin) within reasonable parameters. Arizona has a terrible run game (worst in the country, actually), but OSU was effective in holding them to a little over 50 yards. We'll know come Saturday if the run game has really turned a corner or not.
Points: 20.8 ppg avg (#97th in FBS)
Yardage: 389.8 ypg (#65th)
Pass yardage: 279.8 ypg (#30th)
Rush yardage: 110.0 ypg (#104th)
Defenses faced:
Sacramento State (FCS, and not even a good one at that)
Wisconsin (#7th FBS)
UCLA (90th)
Arizona State (43rd, one spot ahead of BYU)
Arizona (115th)
Play-calling philosophy: 145 rushes to 226 passes, (39.1% rush, 60.9% pass)
QB Sean Mannion -
Games with 20+ passing attempts (Sac. State thus not included)
vs. Wisconsin - 25/38, 244 yards, 0 TD 0 INT 119.7 PER
vs. UCLA - 24/40, 287 yards, 1 TD 1 INT 123.5 PER
vs. ASU - 40/66, 341 yards, 1 TD 4 INT 96.9 PER
vs. Az. - 32/41, 267 yards, 2 TD 2 INT 139.1 PER
Big plays-
15 plays total for 20+ yards, 7.6% big-play-to attempt ratio
6.5 yards per attempt, 78th among starting quarterbacks
Preferred targets -
Markus Wheaton (6'1", 178) 26.5% of all completions, 11.7 YPC
Jordan Bishop (6'3", 205) 14.7%, 14.1 YPC
Jordan Jenkins (6'1", 205) 12.8%, 7.4 YPC
James Rodgers (5'7", 188) 9.7% 10.6 YPC - Note that Rodgers missed the first two games of the season, and is very much in the mix as a #1 or #2 receiver option.
Rushing game -
- Malcolm Agnew is presumably their primary threat. However, he has been out since their opening week loss to Sacramento State. In that game, he managed to run for 223 yards, averaging just under 7 YPC. He was listed as doubtful w/ a hamstring injury for Arizona and did not play, I have not seen any indication that he will play.
- In his absence, OSU has tried a lot of things, including using Markus Wheaton as a running back for a few carries per game. Last week Jovan Stevenson finally had the breakout game that I'm sure OSU had been hoping one of their RBs would have, rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries.
- Oregon State tends to play better when they stick to the run, but they abandon the run game quite quickly. They attempted 66 passes (!) to 17 runs vs. ASU. Even more ridiculously, they ran the ball 29 times vs. UCLA but gave 13 of those touches to Terron Ward (who netted a total of 26 yards) but only 11 touches combined to Wheaton and Stevenson (who together were averaging over 7 YPC).
- A LOT of OSU's woes early in the season can be attributed to an inability to sustain a running game (and thus their willingness to abandon it). While I'm sure Arizona's suckiness had something to do with it (96th in rush defense), I do believe we're unfortunate enough to be playing OSU at a time where they've managed to figure out HOW to establish a run game.
Oregon State Defense
30.6 points allowed (90th)
130.2 rushing yards allowed (47th)
253.4 yards allowed (94th)
65th in total defense
Passer avg. PER compared to PER vs. Oregon State
Richard Wilson (WIS) 216.9 AVG, 203.7 vs. OSU*
Richard Brehaut (UCLA) 138 AVG, 205.1 vs. OSU**
Brock Osweiler (ASU) 147.3 AVG, 125.1 vs. OSU***
Nick Foles (Az.) 153.7 AVG, 137.9 vs. OSU***
*Don't read too much into this stat. Once you're in the 200s, it's all good, and Wilson had a pretty spectacular game against OSU. 3 TDs, no picks, and only 4 incompletions.
**Also an irregular game. Richard Brehaut only attempted 11 passes.
***Both Osweiler and Foles had good games against OSU in terms of racking up yards, maintaining a decent completion percentage and moving the football, but both struggled with turning the ball over (3 picks on Osweiler, 2 on Foles).
Final note - Fleming, the QB for Sacramento State, had a good game against OSU, throwing for 250+ yards, 3 TDs and no picks. I don't like to include FCS QBs' stats, but he was, once upon a time, a very bad quarterback for New Mexico State, I believe.
Rush Defense comparison by team
Wisconsin - 246.8 ypg, 208 vs. OSU
UCLA - 194.5 ypg, 211 vs. OSU
ASU - 129.6 ypg, 109 vs. OSU
Az. - 71.4 ypg, 53 vs. OSU
Pressure Defense -
9.0 sacks on the year, 76th in the nation (San Jose State managed to pressure Riley despite having only 3 sacks on the year, worst in FBS)
23 tackles for loss, 109th in FBS
Assorted stats:
- Oregon State has a -2 turnover margin for the year. They have intercepted the ball 5 times, all in their last two games. However, only one player, Jordan Poyer, has more than one interception (2).
- At 31.5 minutes per game, OSU has a minor advantage in TOP. I would be curious to see, based on their large number of pass attempts, some sort of number that showed how long they kept their defense off the field on average per drive.
- Last week vs. Arizona, Oregon State scored 24 of its 37 points off of drives that began within Arizona's 50-yard line. They did score their first TD on a 92-yard drive, however. Similarly, against Arizona, they scored one touchdown on a 78-yard drive, but scored the remaining touchdown and two fieldgoals off of an 11-yard drive, a 36 yard drive, and a 21 yard drive. Against UCLA, they scored 12 points off of long drives, but earned their other 7 on a kick return.
Some thoughts:
-I'm 90% sure that if we lose this game, it comes down to turning the ball over and subsequently giving OSU good field position. OSU can pick up yardage, but they have major issues with rhythm and sustaining a long drive. It's possible OSU is working those issues out, just as I believe BYU is fixing them as well. But if you put enough space between OSU and the end zone, 9 times out of 10 they WILL shoot themselves in the foot.
- Additionally, OSU has major problems with Red Zone conversions. Even worse than we do, actually - OSU is 40% TD, 35% FG, 25% nothing in the redzone, compared to our 44.44/33.33/22.22 split. I think this feeds into the previous observation - if you pin OSU deep in their own territory, they may make it to their red zone, but it's less likely they'll come away with six points.
-So far, five quarterbacks have faced OSU. Granted, one is a Heisman frontrunner, two are very good to great, and one does pretty well in a run-first defense. But all five have managed to put up very good numbers against OSU in terms of yardage, completion percentage, and moving the chains. However, Foles and Osweiler did themselves a disservice by turning the ball over. Assuming he maintains the starting position, Riley Nelson MUST do a better job of not turning the ball over. If I'm Coach Doman, pass selection and avoiding dumb mistakes are focus #1 for Riley this week.
-Interceptions aside, Riley Nelson should, statistically speaking, have a better game against OSU than SJSU. No joke, their pass defense is pretty bad. If he doesn't, either OSU has gotten better, they're a victim of tough scheduling, or I'll have to bitterly concede that there's truth to the "Riley is easy to gameplan for" argument.
-As fun as it was to see Alisa plow through SJSU last week, I still take it for a grain of salt - SJSU is REALLY BAD on the run. Conversely, OSU has pretty good run D, statistically speaking. They've faced two of the best run offenses in the country (Wisconsin and UCLA, who apparently are still doing that pistol thing in Chow's absence). They gave up a fair number of yards to them, but kept both of them (especially Wisconsin) within reasonable parameters. Arizona has a terrible run game (worst in the country, actually), but OSU was effective in holding them to a little over 50 yards. We'll know come Saturday if the run game has really turned a corner or not.