mizzoucoug wrote:
Game 5: Carpenter is a monster on the road & we own their ace.
CJ Wilson was 8-2 at home this season, but 8-5 on the road in more "pitcher-friendly" parks. He has an ERA of 3.69 in Arlington--the most "hitter-friendly" park in all of baseball.
Compare that to your "monster" on the road who went 7-6 away from home this season with an ERA almost a full-point higher than when he pitches away from home, and allows more than double the HRs on the road than at home in St. Louis. In the three most "hitter-friendly" parks he played in the NL this season (he didn't play at Coors, so I only looked at Chase, Minute Maid, and Great American), Carpenter had four starts and went 2-2 with an ERA of over 5.2.
This game 5 will be closer than most are thinking--Accuscore has Texas as a 56% favorite tonight.