The Idiocy of the "He Can't Throw Past 20 Yards! Argument

Many on here are now using the argument that Riley Nelson allegedly cannot throw the ball more than 20 yards as an argument that we should continue to let Heaps flounder in mediocrity on the field (some say to start, some offer up the proven failure of 2QB). This is about the most unfounded (and bass-ackwards) argument in the whole debate.



Let me sum it up for you: Heaps has had 185 pass attempts this season. Only 12 of those resulted in completions for over 20 yards. That a "big-play" rate of about 6.5%. If you take away the interceptions he threw that resulted in touchdowns for the other team, the rate further drops to 6%.



Nelson has had 21 attempts this season. 4 of those have been completions of over 20 yards. That is a "big-play rate" of 19%.



BYU's longest pass play of the season was Nelson's 40 yard completion to Jacobsen.



Despite all of this, people are still arguing that we need Heaps on the field to stretch it--instead of the weakling who is getting big plays at over triple the rate and who has the longest completion of the season--a completion without YAC like many of Heaps' longer completions.



I think this is just another case of people thinking Heaps' potential alone is worth putting him on the field despite clear evidence through 4+ games that he can't convert that potential into the results he, fans, and coaches imagined. Jake Heaps' potential right now is like cold fusion--I'm okay working on it in the laboratory, but don't go scrapping coal plants because we are working on cold fusion.

snoscythe wrote:
Jake Heaps' potential right now is like cold fusion--I'm okay working on it in the laboratory, but don't go scrapping coal plants because we are working on cold fusion.

Best quote of the week! :D

But how can such an ugly Nelson ball be the longest completion of the year!

It's because teams haven't been game-planning for Riley's style. Once they start putting more men in the box to stop the run...erm...

Dcr36 wrote:
It's because teams haven't been game-planning for Riley's style. Once they start putting more men in the box to stop the run...erm...

I understand the ironic tone here, but it's a point a lot of people have brought up. Interestingly, on the winning TD pass, it looks like USU is bringing a jailbreak blitz. JJ and Matthews are single covered crossing over the middle, Hoffman is single covered on the edge, and from the angles on youtube I'm not sure anyone else is in the pattern. And I see a ton of white jerseys hammering the line. He kept his cool, delivered a pass that wasn't the most accurate, and possibly not the right decision (probably had an easier throw to Matthews directly, just would have taken a little longer to develop), but it won the game. He's shown it's a gamble if you stack the box like that. Sometimes you win, but sometimes....you lose.

Dcr36 wrote:
It's because teams haven't been game-planning for Riley's style. Once they start putting more men in the box to stop the run...erm...

If all it takes to stop Riley is put 8 guys in the box and play man on the recievers, then A) why didn't USU just do that and stop him or B) why didn't it work when they tried it.



From what I saw on Friday, USU blitzed, they played man, they played Zone, they put guys in the box and run blitzed. IMO, they threw everything they had at him and he beat it. Now maybe a better defensive team like TCU would be able to beat him with their defense but we won't know that unless he plays against TCU.

Sno, you have watched Riley throw the ball right? I mean, with your own two eyes? IF so, their is no idiocy in that statement. Down field passing is not Riley's strength. Not even debatable. His strength is using his legs to run or to buy time in the pocket, and passing in the short to mid-range. He is a fantastic runner and a solid short to mid range passer, but has an arm that fears no one. What that means is that teams will crowd in on him and bring pressure because they do not fear out patterns or deep balls. AFA did it, FSU did it, and I suspect SJSU will do it. So Riley needs to make them pay with other options, similar to what USU did to us with screens, etc. I think the extra year and time to assess his weaknesses will make him better this year than last year.

Lawboy wrote:
Sno, you have watched Riley throw the ball right? I mean, with your own two eyes? IF so, their is no idiocy in that statement. Down field passing is not Riley's strength. Not even debatable. His strength is using his legs to run or to buy time in the pocket, and passing in the short to mid-range. He is a fantastic runner and a solid short to mid range passer, but has an arm that fears no one. What that means is that teams will crowd in on him and bring pressure because they do not fear out patterns or deep balls. AFA did it, FSU did it, and I suspect SJSU will do it. So Riley needs to make them pay with other options, similar to what USU did to us with screens, etc. I think the extra year and time to assess his weaknesses will make him better this year than last year.

Yes--I've seen him throw 19% of his passes for over 20 yards. What's your point? He has a better completion percentage and a better YPC than Heaps---so if you are concerned about losing the deep-ball aspect of our game, the answer is not Heaps right now as Nelson is a statistical upgrade in any material measurement other than "pretty spirals" and "gold stars." The argument of Riley's arm is only relevant as a comparison to Heaps, and the comparison of results isn't even close.

Just means BYU needs to scheme different for Riley than for Jake. If BYU tries to go pro style with Riley, that seems stupid. Even Texas changed schemes to suit their QBs on the fly vs. BYU. We need to do the same. And simply calling QB draws is not a scheme change. There needs to be more to it. Spread them out, attack the flanks with the option, and then also roll out to pass. When Riley is in, utilize his strengths with the scheme, not Jake's. All I am saying.

Lawboy wrote:
Just means BYU needs to scheme different for Riley than for Jake. If BYU tries to go pro style with Riley, that seems stupid. Even Texas changed schemes to suit their QBs on the fly vs. BYU. We need to do the same. And simply calling QB draws is not a scheme change. There needs to be more to it. Spread them out, attack the flanks with the option, and then also roll out to pass. When Riley is in, utilize his strengths with the scheme, not Jake's. All I am saying.

And I agree with that. The OP was refuting those who think that Heaps still needs to play to compensate for Nelson's weaker arm, not to argue that the Nelson offense should be identical to the Heaps offense.

frdbtr wrote:
IMO, they threw everything they had at him and he beat it.

Yeah, for 1.5 quarters. He was sacked twice if I remember correctly.



His ability to create time by scrambling is his strength. A defender can only hold his defense for so long. If he completes passes at a better rate than Heaps (which is likely this week against SJSU) then he's the go-to guy.



But BYU has designed a pro-style offense tailored to Heaps's passing style. Not sure it would immediately translate to Riley's strengths.



Only a couple more days and we'll see!

CAFB_04-12 wrote:
]which is likely this week against SJSU) then he's the go-to guy.

But again, if he does it against SJSU, the equivalent of USU with more wins, then why couldn't Heaps do it? I'm tired of the downplaying Nelson's probable success based on who he will be playing when it has been painfully obvious Heaps wasn't getting it done against anyone.



And If Nelson gets sacked it's no big concern as long as he's not fumbling (which has happened unfortunately) and he can recover. Put heaps in a 3rd and longer than 5 situation and it meant punting on 4th. Not the case with Riley so far.

snoscythe wrote:

Just means BYU needs to scheme different for Riley than for Jake. If BYU tries to go pro style with Riley, that seems stupid. Even Texas changed schemes to suit their QBs on the fly vs. BYU. We need to do the same. And simply calling QB draws is not a scheme change. There needs to be more to it. Spread them out, attack the flanks with the option, and then also roll out to pass. When Riley is in, utilize his strengths with the scheme, not Jake's. All I am saying.

And I agree with that. The OP was refuting those who think that Heaps still needs to play to compensate for Nelson's weaker arm, not to argue that the Nelson offense should be identical to the Heaps offense.

I guess I don't understand why this observation about Nelson gets people so riled up. Nelson's mediocre to below average throwing ability is pretty obvious.



That statement does not say "Heaps should start Saturday because Nelson can't throw," or "BYU offense is built upon 50+ yard passes," or "Nelson is incapable of leading BYU to victory."



To me, it is just a statement of fact. I personally still feel that Nelson's accuracy is a bit erratic - but Heaps has been worse than erratic thus far this year.



I also wonder if there is a game plan that prevents the defense from exposing this problem.



That being said, he deserves to play, BYU will not ask him to make throws he lacks the ability to throw, and I will let what I see happen determine my next assessment. That, to me, is all anyone who has mentioned Nelson's throwing ability has ever said.

I think either QB could do well passing against SJSU, provided accuracy improves. Starting CB Brandon Driver is likely out for the season.

It doesn't really matter. We might as well play Riley, change the scheme to fit that type of player, because after today's announcement we won't be getting even the type of recruits we're getting now.

Lawboy wrote:
He is a fantastic runner and a solid short to mid range passer, but has an arm that fears no one. What that means is that teams will crowd in on him and bring pressure because they do not fear out patterns or deep balls.

:lol: :lol: :lol:



Who fears Heaps arm? No one. Geeez...half of the kid's completions for over 20 yards are interceptions. If you're an opponent, you may actually want Heaps to throw it long because the odds are certainly in your favor for a turnover and touchdown.



Opponents are doing exactly to Heaps what Bronco does to inaccurate QBs. They load the box, bring pressure and force the QB to make a pass. Heaps gets rattled. Opponents know this. If they can get in Heaps head, which they do, the game is in the bag.



Riley on the other hand can buy BYU time with his feet. Will wait for a play to develop despite the on-coming hit and deliver a pass. An opponent may load the box, but all it takes is Riley evading it a few times and making a few down field plays for the opponent to abandon that. Not the case with Heaps. Get Heaps in a 3rd and long situation and you're set.

Gunk wrote:

He is a fantastic runner and a solid short to mid range passer, but has an arm that fears no one. What that means is that teams will crowd in on him and bring pressure because they do not fear out patterns or deep balls.

:lol: :lol: :lol:



Who fears Heaps arm? No one. Geeez...half of the kid's completions for over 20 yards are interceptions. If you're an opponent, you may actually want Heaps to throw it long because the odds are certainly in your favor for a turnover and touchdown.



Opponents are doing exactly to Heaps what Bronco does to inaccurate QBs. They load the box, bring pressure and force the QB to make a pass. Heaps gets rattled. Opponents know this. If they can get in Heaps head, which they do, the game is in the bag.



Riley on the other hand can buy BYU time with his feet. Will wait for a play to develop despite the on-coming hit and deliver a pass. An opponent may load the box, but all it takes is Riley evading it a few times and making a few down field plays for the opponent to abandon that. Not the case with Heaps. Get Heaps in a 3rd and long situation and you're set.

Supporting this is the fact that after the USU game Gary Anderson said that when Nelson came in they had to stop loading the box and defend the pass. The only rational interpretation of that statement is that the gameplan for Heaps (that held him to 11/24 and 107 yards) was to load the box to stop the run and force the QB to throw under pressure into one-on-one matchups.