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Dcr36I did a similar thread for USU a few days ago, and I actually really enjoyed it. While my predictions about USU were mostly all wrong, I found it a lot of fun to go into LES on Friday and have a pretty decent knowledge of what we were facing. Thought I'd do some research on SJSU as well.
SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY
Offense:
Total: 352.0 YPG, #89th FBS
Pass: 205.2 YPG, #84th FBS
Rush: 148.8 YPG, #62nd FBS
Defenses faced:
Stanford (27th FBS)
UCLA (97th FBS)
Nevada (96th FBS)
New Mexico State (116th FBS)
Colorado State (37th FBS)
Note: I'll look into these later to see who the 5 have played. Colorado State's defense looked pretty bad yesterday, and Nevada, for the 1 quarter I watched, looked all right considering they were playing BSU.
Play-calling philosophy:
169 rushes to 176 passes (49.0% rush to 51.0% pass)
QB play
Presumed Starter: Matt Faulkner (Dasmen Stewart briefly won the job, but Matt Faulkner has started and won the last two games)
73/121 (60.3% comp), 864 yards, 4 TD 2 INT
Long ball:
- season long of 64 yds (twice - one vs. Stanford, one vs. New Mexico St.)
- 9 completions of 20+ yards (3 vs. Stanford, 2 vs. Nev, New Mexico St., and CSU)
- 7.4% long-ball-to-attempt percentage (20+ yard passes divided by attempts)
Targets of note:
- WR Noel Grigsby, 28 receptions (29.4% of team total receptions), 248 yards, 8.9 yards per catch, long of 24, 0 TDs
- WR Chandler Jones, 21 receptions (22.1%), 167 yards, 7.8 yards per catch, long of 16, 0 TDs
- WR Jabari Carr, 16 receptions (16.8%), 207 yards, 12.9 yards per catch, long of 64, 1 TD
- TE Ryan Otten, 15 receptions, (15.7%), 264 yards, 17.6 yards per catch (#35th FBS), long of 64, 3 TDs
Rushing game
- RB Brandon Rutley, 5-11 192 lbs, 91 attempts (53.8% of teams attempts), 519 yards, 5.7 YPC, long of 66, 5 runs of 20+ yards.
- QB Dasmen Stewart - second-leading rusher due to starting a few games, currently 2nd string QB. Saw some playing time vs. NMSU similar to Riley Nelson in our first few games, 3 touches for 11 yards. Did not play yesterday. If he's in, he's probably not going to throw.
- other RBs - nobody else on the team other than Rutley has more than 20 touches (or a terribly impressive YPC, for that matter), and the team's second-leading RB, David Freeman, has not played the last two weeks.
Closing thoughts on offense
-Tight end Ryan Otten is who I'm going to have my eyes on. 17.6 yards per catch and responsible for 75% of the team's passing touchdowns. I'm a little concerned that SJSU's big yardage threat in the pass game is a 6-5, 235 behemoth. Interesting statistic: In SJSU's first 3 games, Otten had only 3 catches and SJSU went 0-3. In SJSU's last two games, Otten has 12 catches and they are 2-0. Possible explanation? Shut down Otten, shut down the passing game.
- A week after facing Robert Turbin, 10th in the nation in YPG, we're facing Brandon Rutley, 24th in the nation in YPG. Rutley is a good 20 pounds lighter than Turbin, and also serves as their return man. I wasn't paying attention to him while watching their game yesterday, but based on those two facts alone, I would assume Rutley is more of a finesse back than Turbin.
Defense:
-Total Defense: 408.8 yards allowed per game, #87th FBS
- Pass defense: 222.8 yards allowed per game, #66th FBS
- Rush defense: 186.0 yards allowed per game, #95th FBS
Offenses faced:
Stanford (16th)
UCLA (63rd)
Nevada (56th)
New Mexico St. (59th)
CSU (93rd)
Various defense stats:
QB avg against SJSU (rounded): 18/30, 223 yards, 1.6 TD, 1 INT, 135 PER
3 sacks total this year, for a total loss of 12 yards.
18 tackles for loss, for a total loss of 46 yards.
4.65 yards per carry allowed, 94th in FBS
(for comparison:
Ole Miss: 4.6, #90
Texas: 3.5, #43
Utah: 3.2, #30
UCF: 2.9, #22
Utah State: 2.9, #19)
Individual QBs vs. SJSU
- Andrew Luck: 17/26, 171 yards, 2 TD 0 INT, 146.0 PER (Luck has a 178 avg. PER in 2011)
- RIchard Brehaut: 12/23, 146 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 119.5 PER (141.1)
- Tyler Lantrip: 11/21, 112 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 78.1 PER (101.2)
- Matt Christian: 17/28, 238 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 136.8 PER (167.9)
- Pete Thomas: 28/43, 387 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 154.4 PER (127.7)
Thoughts:
- Unless SJSU has played against predominately iron-forged O-lines, I have pretty much no fear of their ability to penetrate for sacks and TFLs. They're among some of the worst in the country in that regard. Then again, relying on stats isn't everything: BYU's defense is only #50th in the country with low totals for sacks and TFLs, but I'm still standing my by belief that we've got a good D.
- Look at those individual QB performances. Screwy, huh? They've held every QB but one well below their PER averages on the year, and the one that they didn't is statistically speaking the 2nd worse QB they faced. It does seem like they're getting progressively worse on pass D. I don't know if they had a significant injury, if coaches and QBs are starting to figure out their schemes, or what. Still, considering their apparent inability to pressure the QB, those are some decent pass D performances. Which leads me to my final point...
- For all of our arguing over who should start against SJSU, we've focused mainly on "Who is the better overall QB?" and "Who is the better leader?" If the start is decided by "Which QB gives us the better chance to win against SJSU?" I think the answer has to be Nelson. Why? Because the run game is going to be more important than the pass game. SJSU is weak against the run. Period. The run game functions better when Riley is in, if for no other reason than it gives us an additional running option.
Any thoughts? Criticisms of my methods? (Specifically, is the 20+ yards an appropriate metric for "long plays" on both rushing and pass defense? It feels too short on the pass and too long on the run.)
SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY
Offense:
Total: 352.0 YPG, #89th FBS
Pass: 205.2 YPG, #84th FBS
Rush: 148.8 YPG, #62nd FBS
Defenses faced:
Stanford (27th FBS)
UCLA (97th FBS)
Nevada (96th FBS)
New Mexico State (116th FBS)
Colorado State (37th FBS)
Note: I'll look into these later to see who the 5 have played. Colorado State's defense looked pretty bad yesterday, and Nevada, for the 1 quarter I watched, looked all right considering they were playing BSU.
Play-calling philosophy:
169 rushes to 176 passes (49.0% rush to 51.0% pass)
QB play
Presumed Starter: Matt Faulkner (Dasmen Stewart briefly won the job, but Matt Faulkner has started and won the last two games)
73/121 (60.3% comp), 864 yards, 4 TD 2 INT
Long ball:
- season long of 64 yds (twice - one vs. Stanford, one vs. New Mexico St.)
- 9 completions of 20+ yards (3 vs. Stanford, 2 vs. Nev, New Mexico St., and CSU)
- 7.4% long-ball-to-attempt percentage (20+ yard passes divided by attempts)
Targets of note:
- WR Noel Grigsby, 28 receptions (29.4% of team total receptions), 248 yards, 8.9 yards per catch, long of 24, 0 TDs
- WR Chandler Jones, 21 receptions (22.1%), 167 yards, 7.8 yards per catch, long of 16, 0 TDs
- WR Jabari Carr, 16 receptions (16.8%), 207 yards, 12.9 yards per catch, long of 64, 1 TD
- TE Ryan Otten, 15 receptions, (15.7%), 264 yards, 17.6 yards per catch (#35th FBS), long of 64, 3 TDs
Rushing game
- RB Brandon Rutley, 5-11 192 lbs, 91 attempts (53.8% of teams attempts), 519 yards, 5.7 YPC, long of 66, 5 runs of 20+ yards.
- QB Dasmen Stewart - second-leading rusher due to starting a few games, currently 2nd string QB. Saw some playing time vs. NMSU similar to Riley Nelson in our first few games, 3 touches for 11 yards. Did not play yesterday. If he's in, he's probably not going to throw.
- other RBs - nobody else on the team other than Rutley has more than 20 touches (or a terribly impressive YPC, for that matter), and the team's second-leading RB, David Freeman, has not played the last two weeks.
Closing thoughts on offense
-Tight end Ryan Otten is who I'm going to have my eyes on. 17.6 yards per catch and responsible for 75% of the team's passing touchdowns. I'm a little concerned that SJSU's big yardage threat in the pass game is a 6-5, 235 behemoth. Interesting statistic: In SJSU's first 3 games, Otten had only 3 catches and SJSU went 0-3. In SJSU's last two games, Otten has 12 catches and they are 2-0. Possible explanation? Shut down Otten, shut down the passing game.
- A week after facing Robert Turbin, 10th in the nation in YPG, we're facing Brandon Rutley, 24th in the nation in YPG. Rutley is a good 20 pounds lighter than Turbin, and also serves as their return man. I wasn't paying attention to him while watching their game yesterday, but based on those two facts alone, I would assume Rutley is more of a finesse back than Turbin.
Defense:
-Total Defense: 408.8 yards allowed per game, #87th FBS
- Pass defense: 222.8 yards allowed per game, #66th FBS
- Rush defense: 186.0 yards allowed per game, #95th FBS
Offenses faced:
Stanford (16th)
UCLA (63rd)
Nevada (56th)
New Mexico St. (59th)
CSU (93rd)
Various defense stats:
QB avg against SJSU (rounded): 18/30, 223 yards, 1.6 TD, 1 INT, 135 PER
3 sacks total this year, for a total loss of 12 yards.
18 tackles for loss, for a total loss of 46 yards.
4.65 yards per carry allowed, 94th in FBS
(for comparison:
Ole Miss: 4.6, #90
Texas: 3.5, #43
Utah: 3.2, #30
UCF: 2.9, #22
Utah State: 2.9, #19)
Individual QBs vs. SJSU
- Andrew Luck: 17/26, 171 yards, 2 TD 0 INT, 146.0 PER (Luck has a 178 avg. PER in 2011)
- RIchard Brehaut: 12/23, 146 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 119.5 PER (141.1)
- Tyler Lantrip: 11/21, 112 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 78.1 PER (101.2)
- Matt Christian: 17/28, 238 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 136.8 PER (167.9)
- Pete Thomas: 28/43, 387 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 154.4 PER (127.7)
Thoughts:
- Unless SJSU has played against predominately iron-forged O-lines, I have pretty much no fear of their ability to penetrate for sacks and TFLs. They're among some of the worst in the country in that regard. Then again, relying on stats isn't everything: BYU's defense is only #50th in the country with low totals for sacks and TFLs, but I'm still standing my by belief that we've got a good D.
- Look at those individual QB performances. Screwy, huh? They've held every QB but one well below their PER averages on the year, and the one that they didn't is statistically speaking the 2nd worse QB they faced. It does seem like they're getting progressively worse on pass D. I don't know if they had a significant injury, if coaches and QBs are starting to figure out their schemes, or what. Still, considering their apparent inability to pressure the QB, those are some decent pass D performances. Which leads me to my final point...
- For all of our arguing over who should start against SJSU, we've focused mainly on "Who is the better overall QB?" and "Who is the better leader?" If the start is decided by "Which QB gives us the better chance to win against SJSU?" I think the answer has to be Nelson. Why? Because the run game is going to be more important than the pass game. SJSU is weak against the run. Period. The run game functions better when Riley is in, if for no other reason than it gives us an additional running option.
Any thoughts? Criticisms of my methods? (Specifically, is the 20+ yards an appropriate metric for "long plays" on both rushing and pass defense? It feels too short on the pass and too long on the run.)