Is Nelson in the hot seat right away?

Assuming the coaches go with Nelson from now on with the intent that he play out the rest of the season....if he sucks it up as bad as Heaps how many quarters/games would you give him before giving the next guy a try?

Great question. I am curious to see how people answer this.

Cougy_Monster wrote:
Assuming the coaches go with Nelson from now on with the intent that he play out the rest of the season....if he sucks it up as bad as Heaps how many quarters/games would you give him before giving the next guy a try?

Either two or three games. He's got three totally winnable games ahead of him. If he sucks in the first two, I don't really want him playing the week before TCU.



Then again, if Riley flat out sucks against SJSU and OSU, I don't think I'll feel very confident about our chances in Arlington, no matter who is under center. I guess I would join the Lark brigade, but to be on your 3rd QB 8 games into the season...yeesh.

He gets the Heaps treatment. That means four games. If he's not winning games nor is close to a 136 PER, he gets to start a fifth game as one last chance.



But if he performs at an acceptable level in those four games (2-3 wins) and is pretty close the 136 PER he can finish the season.



If he performs at that acceptable level the rest of the year (5-6 more wins) and is real close to 136 PER (lowest I'll go is about 130) then he should get the Heaps treatment next year as well. That is he is the presumed starter in spring ball and fall camp.



If others want to beat him out in spring or fall of 2012, they'll have to do it with reduced reps as the majority of them should go to getting Riley ready for the season. Then once the games start, those will be weighted more heavily just like this year.

SpiffCoug wrote:
He gets the Heaps treatment. That means four games. If he's not winning games nor is close to a 136 PER, he gets to start a fifth game as one last chance.



But if he performs at an acceptable level in those four games (2-3 wins) and is pretty close the 136 PER he can finish the season.



If he performs at that acceptable level the rest of the year (5-6 more wins) and is real close to 136 PER (lowest I'll go is about 130) then he should get the Heaps treatment next year as well. That is he is the presumed starter in spring ball and fall camp.



If others want to beat him out in spring or fall of 2012, they'll have to do it with reduced reps as the majority of them should go to getting Riley ready for the season. Then once the games start, those will be weighted more heavily just like this year.

Does a 136+ plus average on the year, with a significantly-below-136 performance against TCU, still earn him your vote of confidence?

Going into next year? Yes. Heaps had my confidence going into this year and he didn't get to 136 until his 7th start last year and never sniffed it this year. He had a 58.81 PER last year vs TCU - which appears to be a much better defense than the horny toads have this year.

I hope that this is the most useless question we will see this week because failure should not occur.



Failure against San Jose State > Failure vs any opponent so far. Maybe failure at San Jose State would approximate Utah State which buys 3 quarters - max.



Cannot give the same # of games with different levels of competition.



That being said, I think it dismal to be considering failure. San Jose will not be a cakewalk, but they are certainly much weaker defensively than any of our first 4 opponents.

MountainMD wrote:
I hope that this is the most useless question we will see this week because failure should not occur.



Failure against San Jose State > Failure vs anything opponent so far. Maybe failure at San Jose State would ~ Utah State which buys 3 quarters - max.



Cannot give the same # of games with different levels of competition.



That being said, I think it dismal to be considering failure. San Jose will not be a cakewalk, but they are certainly much weaker defensively than any of our first 4 opponents.

So then Riley should be allowed to start the rest of the year. Because clearly we need to wait until we see Riley perform against the same number of good teams as Jake before we make a decision.



I will agree with you that struggling against SJSU is probably worse than struggling against USU. USU PER Defense is about 132, while SJSU is 135, so in pass defense they're pretty equal, but USU is much better against the run. The offense "shouldn't" struggle this week. I'm still expecting/holding Riley to the same standard - 136PER - for this week and every week to come.

SpiffCoug wrote:

I hope that this is the most useless question we will see this week because failure should not occur.



Failure against San Jose State > Failure vs anything opponent so far. Maybe failure at San Jose State would ~ Utah State which buys 3 quarters - max.



Cannot give the same # of games with different levels of competition.



That being said, I think it dismal to be considering failure. San Jose will not be a cakewalk, but they are certainly much weaker defensively than any of our first 4 opponents.

So then Riley should be allowed to start the rest of the year. Because clearly we need to wait until we see Riley perform against the same number of good teams as Jake before we make a decision.



I will agree with you that struggling against SJSU is probably worse than struggling against USU. USU PER Defense is about 132, while SJSU is 135, so in pass defense they're pretty equal, but USU is much better against the run. The offense "shouldn't" struggle this week. I'm still expecting/holding Riley to the same standard - 136PER - for this week and every week to come.

:)



Sorry, but I would have to say the equivalent chance is with the similar (probably not quite equal opponent) as you ably pointed out. It appears that we will not see any defense as tough as our first 4 (TCU not withstanding) the rest of the year. If toughness and leadership aren't enough to succeed against the least common denominator, a re-evaluation would be immediately needed. Back to Heaps if we rationally assume that his starting up to this point is a sign that he has shown more in total (game and practice) then the other candidates or Lark/ Munns if the performance has been closer than publicized or if the coaches have been irrationally starting Heaps when others had performed better in total.

Sorry Doc



We know Jake Heaps can win close games against cupcakes and occasionally blow them out. He struggles against good teams even having played in 13 games in 2010 and 5 in 2011. I think we should give Riley Nelson more than one week of prep as a starter and 1 game before we pronounce judgment on how much upside he has.



If we get behind SJSU and he is playing poorly, and the clock is ticking, and he continues to struggle - well that is what Brandon and Bronco get paid the big bucks to decide based on experience and instinct.



Me - I would probably try Heaps for a series or two unless I had confidence that Lark was ready to go.



I am hoping Nelson leads this team to create quite a different judgment call - BYU up 21 - do you give Lark the 4th quarter to develop him as a back-up. I would say yes - have him run, hand off, safe passes, develop some confidence, go deep if SJSU takes the ball control stuff away and lets people get open deep. This is not running up the score. Hopefully Nelson fights for the chance for several understudies to see the field. Maybe we try out some safety and RB options and OL.



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I think if you put Lark in, in the 4th quarter you have to let him play the open offense. He got "safe" time last year. He needs a chance to play with the regular offense. We won't be able to tell how he does if you only let him hand off. I consider it very poor coaching that last season they wasted his game time by having him only hand off. Just my thoughts.

fifthqb wrote:
I think if you put Lark in, in the 4th quarter you have to let him play the open offense. He got "safe" time last year. He needs a chance to play with the regular offense. We won't be able to tell how he does if you only let him hand off. I consider it very poor coaching that last season they wasted his game time by having him only hand off. Just my thoughts.

Agree - first they should have gotten him more minutes. What did he get - 15?



My suggestion in the previous post is about exactly what I expect Riley will be running. Maybe a little conservative until we run down some clock. I want more minutes - but not a momentum shift to SJSU with a full quarter left. Still up halfway thru the quarter open it up some more.



But yes - no three predictable handoffs in a row followed by a punt. Same play-action stuff Jake did not run well, that Riley hopefully will run well, and that Lark should be able to have success with and build upon. Don't worry - I will be the guy calling to give him the 2nd half vs ISU if we get up big. We need to get Lark ready to play in prime-time. Odds are - that will matter at some point and he needs to be ready.



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Dcr36 wrote:

Assuming the coaches go with Nelson from now on with the intent that he play out the rest of the season....if he sucks it up as bad as Heaps how many quarters/games would you give him before giving the next guy a try?

Either two or three games. He's got three totally winnable games ahead of him. If he sucks in the first two, I don't really want him playing the week before TCU.



Then again, if Riley flat out sucks against SJSU and OSU, I don't think I'll feel very confident about our chances in Arlington, no matter who is under center. I guess I would join the Lark brigade, but to be on your 3rd QB 8 games into the season...yeesh.

Yeah - We'd start looking like Texas! ;)

I think Riley needs an opportunity - but not an assurance that he gets x amount of starts or that he is the guy for the rest of the season. He needs to earn that. I am not sure his body of work justifies that type of assurance.



For me, the difference between the two is my estimation of their ability. I am not convinced (yet) that if a defense prepares for Riley, that he will be able to keep them honest by consistently making the throws.



If he proves he can make the needed throws, move the ball, and lead, then he earns a greater assurance of starts and playing time.

pjmuli wrote:
I think Riley needs an opportunity - but not an assurance that he gets x amount of starts or that he is the guy for the rest of the season. He needs to earn that. I am not sure his body of work justifies that type of assurance.



For me, the difference between the two is my estimation of their ability. I am not convinced (yet) that if a defense prepares for Riley, that he will be able to keep them honest by consistently making the throws.



If he proves he can make the needed throws, move the ball, and lead, then he earns a greater assurance of starts and playing time.

I don't think Riley or anyone else should be given any assurances of playing time. The coaches will be making some big decisions based on instinct and feel. But they can't knee jerk after every bad series or a turnover. They will be looking at trends and flow.



Hopefully Riley will ease their burden by playing well. Hopefully the rest of the team will respond. Forget about TCU and OSU. BYU needs to beat SJSU Saturday and they are probably about the same as Ole Miss and USU in level of difficulty. Our offense needs to be better than the BYU offense that got out played by Ole Miss (Van Noy bailed out Heaps in this one) and USU for 3 quarters (Nelson and the BYU D bailed out this one) if we are to win.



So yes - the QB Seat is always hot at BYU and losing just never goes down well. Losing to Ole Miss, Utah, and USU, which nearly happened and UCF which could easily have happened(stellar ST - especially KO returned to the house and booming punts- bailed out Heaps on this one) do not go down at all. You don't lose your job for losing at Texas or TCU.



You have to beat SJSU. Losing is not an option Saturday.



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Lets see, some of you want to give Riley the same amount of rope that Jake got?

Give me a break. He's a Junior, older, and better well not take as much time to avoid the hot seat. Some of you are already pre-apologizing for Nelson. The shoe fits, doesnt it. Maybe he was the one that thought he was also "the annointed one" last year and was deserving of the start and ticked he didnt get it. I have long suggested that he was politicking this offense even last year. And it was divisive, if not covertly mutinous. And when I saw him on the sideline (when I watched the replay) acting all incredulous after making the 1st down and not getting the chance to finish the drive, I thought, yep, there it is. Now g--which is sort of pathetic. And yes, I will concede that even from a scheme standpoint, Riley would be better in that situation; and further, I cant blame Riley for being at least somewhat belittled. He should have been given that last play and run it in for the TD.

BUT WAIT. Before you get all bunched up....



To Riley's credit, I think he was the one who needed to be benched, injury or not, last year, and he has Risen Up and developed more than just heart and legs. He may not be able to make "all the throws" but he can make enough of them to mix with his heart and legs and leadership. Good for him. Good for BYU. I like it. One game does not a pattern make, but I think he is the guy. Partly because he has earned it on the field. And Partly because the players have spoken. It is clear who they want,who they will support, who they have confidence in and who they will rally around.

When was the last time we had a good qb performance against a good team?



I don't expect a good performance from any of our qb's against TCU.



But Riley should (and needs to) get the job done the next 3 games. We should walk all over these teams.