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Dcr36Which is an odd statement, since Utah State is a 1-2 team, with that one win being over Weber State. Yet I know my gut is queasy over this game, and I think that sentiment is reflected by others here is well. Looking at the stats, though, I don't think it's justified.
Let's consider some initial stats.
Utah State:
Run Defense: 82.67 YPG (#17 in FBS)
Pass Defense: 187.0 YPG (#30 in FBS)
Total Defense: 269.7 YPG (#12 in FBS)
Rush Offense: 316.00 YPG (#5 in FBS)
Pass Offense: 167.00 YPG (#104 in FBS)
Total Offense: 483.3 YPG (#16 in FBS)
Teams Utah State has played:
vs. Auburn: total defense is ranked #110 in FBS, giving up on average close to 480 yards a game. In addition to Utah State, they've played Auburn and Mississippi State, which partially explains the low rank, but consider this: Auburn has also played FIU, who is dead last in offense. Again, FUI's rank is someone justifiable in that they've played Florida and Michigan State, but comparing Auburn's defense, FUI gained nearly double the yards against Auburn (307) than they did in their previous two games COMBINED (185). To call Auburn's defense an "SEC defense" is about as accurate as calling Ole Miss' offense an "SEC offense" (no offense OleMissInPeace).
Auburn's offense is decent (#45 FBS, I think), and Utah State's defense should be credited for what they did there. However, as one who watched the 2nd half, by the end of the game Auburn was essentially moving the ball at will against Utah State. It's entirely possible that Utah State's lead could partially be attributed to early-season kinks on the part of Auburn's offense.
vs. Colorado State: surprisingly, our old conference buddies are ranked 31st in total defense. Again, however, this early in the season it's all about who you've played. So far, Colorado State has played New Mexico (#79 total offense), Colorado (#76 total offense), and Northern Colorado (an FCS team that's 0-4, with a loss to Lindenwood, who I think might be whatever is BELOW FCS). In short, aside from Utah State, they've yet to play a team with a statistically superior offense. Moving away from stat-geek stuff, I think the bigger picture says it all: they're 2-1 over the worst FBS team (New Mexico), possibly the worst Pac-12 team (Colorado) and an awful FCS team (N. Colorado) that are a combined 1-11. And remember, they BEAT Utah State.
On offense, Colorado State is particularly anemic: 311 yards a game (#104 FBS) IN SPITE of that schedule. #96 in passing, #81st in rushing. I can almost guarantee you that Heaps would be looking like a world beater if we had been playing those three teams.
Granted, Utah State held them under their season average (232 yards against the Ags), and really should have won that game. But the fact that it was ever even close enough for Colorado State to swipe this one away from them speaks more to the interpretation that Utah State is overrated than anything else.
vs. Weber State -
You know what? After reading through all the stat lines, USU's performance in this game scares me way more than Auburn. Weber State's not terrible. They lost by a field goal to Wyoming the week before USU blew them out. (However, Wyoming is in the bottom 15 for total defense despite being 3-1, so who knows). They have two wins to their name by an impressive margin, but both were against average-to-poor FCS teams.
In summary: I think Utah State is an early-season mirage, to some extent, especially on offense. They have yet to assert a passing game, and their rushing yards have come against a terrible Auburn defense, a CSU team that is 3-1 thanks to a gift-wrapped schedule, and a 2-2 FCS team. Defensively, they're all right, but hardly UCF (#3) or Texas (#11), and considering SoS I'd feel comfortable putting them below Utah (#46). Heck, considering SoS I might even put them below Ole Miss (Ole Miss has passed the eye test on D in every game I've watched).
I'm still worried about this game, but it's all in the intangibles. Utah State has it in their heads they can win, and we have it in our heads we can lose. But in terms of match-ups, there's no reason we shouldn't win handily.
Let's consider some initial stats.
Utah State:
Run Defense: 82.67 YPG (#17 in FBS)
Pass Defense: 187.0 YPG (#30 in FBS)
Total Defense: 269.7 YPG (#12 in FBS)
Rush Offense: 316.00 YPG (#5 in FBS)
Pass Offense: 167.00 YPG (#104 in FBS)
Total Offense: 483.3 YPG (#16 in FBS)
Teams Utah State has played:
vs. Auburn: total defense is ranked #110 in FBS, giving up on average close to 480 yards a game. In addition to Utah State, they've played Auburn and Mississippi State, which partially explains the low rank, but consider this: Auburn has also played FIU, who is dead last in offense. Again, FUI's rank is someone justifiable in that they've played Florida and Michigan State, but comparing Auburn's defense, FUI gained nearly double the yards against Auburn (307) than they did in their previous two games COMBINED (185). To call Auburn's defense an "SEC defense" is about as accurate as calling Ole Miss' offense an "SEC offense" (no offense OleMissInPeace).
Auburn's offense is decent (#45 FBS, I think), and Utah State's defense should be credited for what they did there. However, as one who watched the 2nd half, by the end of the game Auburn was essentially moving the ball at will against Utah State. It's entirely possible that Utah State's lead could partially be attributed to early-season kinks on the part of Auburn's offense.
vs. Colorado State: surprisingly, our old conference buddies are ranked 31st in total defense. Again, however, this early in the season it's all about who you've played. So far, Colorado State has played New Mexico (#79 total offense), Colorado (#76 total offense), and Northern Colorado (an FCS team that's 0-4, with a loss to Lindenwood, who I think might be whatever is BELOW FCS). In short, aside from Utah State, they've yet to play a team with a statistically superior offense. Moving away from stat-geek stuff, I think the bigger picture says it all: they're 2-1 over the worst FBS team (New Mexico), possibly the worst Pac-12 team (Colorado) and an awful FCS team (N. Colorado) that are a combined 1-11. And remember, they BEAT Utah State.
On offense, Colorado State is particularly anemic: 311 yards a game (#104 FBS) IN SPITE of that schedule. #96 in passing, #81st in rushing. I can almost guarantee you that Heaps would be looking like a world beater if we had been playing those three teams.
Granted, Utah State held them under their season average (232 yards against the Ags), and really should have won that game. But the fact that it was ever even close enough for Colorado State to swipe this one away from them speaks more to the interpretation that Utah State is overrated than anything else.
vs. Weber State -
You know what? After reading through all the stat lines, USU's performance in this game scares me way more than Auburn. Weber State's not terrible. They lost by a field goal to Wyoming the week before USU blew them out. (However, Wyoming is in the bottom 15 for total defense despite being 3-1, so who knows). They have two wins to their name by an impressive margin, but both were against average-to-poor FCS teams.
In summary: I think Utah State is an early-season mirage, to some extent, especially on offense. They have yet to assert a passing game, and their rushing yards have come against a terrible Auburn defense, a CSU team that is 3-1 thanks to a gift-wrapped schedule, and a 2-2 FCS team. Defensively, they're all right, but hardly UCF (#3) or Texas (#11), and considering SoS I'd feel comfortable putting them below Utah (#46). Heck, considering SoS I might even put them below Ole Miss (Ole Miss has passed the eye test on D in every game I've watched).
I'm still worried about this game, but it's all in the intangibles. Utah State has it in their heads they can win, and we have it in our heads we can lose. But in terms of match-ups, there's no reason we shouldn't win handily.