Re: UTSA Game 2020
Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:27 am
How else do you define a "law"?frdbtr wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:02 pmExactly, so I guess it is the governments job to tell people what they can and can't do.snoscythe wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:46 amI get really tired of these types of ignorant arguments. Like REALLY tired. The "If X works, why Y?" stuff just exposes either real or pretended ignorance.
Maybe nothing works perfectly to STOP spread, but there are a number of things that help SLOW the spread that, when combined, work even better to SLOW it?
Nothing ELIMINATES risk, but there are quite a few things we can do to REDUCE risk.
I don't honestly believe you are this dense -- this is what I referred to as pretended ignorance. There's a wide chasm between "helping" and "eliminating". Making the "if X works, why Y?" arguments only make you look irrational and insincere.Your statement actually confirms my entire point. If masks help, why not let people wear their masks and go watch football.
I get that you and other people want to be able to attend BYU games, but as a parent who didn't get to attend two of my son's football games that were played over the last two+ weeks in Provo/Orem because spectators are prohibited from attending any sporting events in those two communities, I would be pretty upset if BYU got a carve-out or special treatment. If the restrictions are science-driven, then either the rules change for the whole community or they stay the same for the whole community.
I'm certain you've never done the math on what the number of deaths look like from a virus where 99+% survive infection--you wouldn't be so cavalier about things if you had.There is a 99+% chance that people will recover from this virus, which was recently proven when our 74 year old president recovered from it in 2 days.
Citing the survival rate generally comes from one of two camps--those who think we just need to go back to normal, or those arguing for herd immunity. I'll pretend that you are looking for herd immunity, because of those two camps, that one actually gives the best-case scenario for mortality numbers.
Herd immunity requires 50%-90% of the population to contract and survive a virus for herd immunity to offer protection. Even with the current mortality rate of 0.6%, those infection rates translate to between 9,600 and 17,312 deaths in the state of Utah alone. That's the same number of deaths as three to six 9/11's, and that's just in Utah.
Go nationwide and the "herd immunity plan" at current mortality rates means you are talking between 984,000 and 1,772,280 deaths.
By comparison, the US lost 655,000 lives in the Civil War (Union and Confederate combined). We lost 116,000 in WWI, and 405,000 in WWII. In our three worst wars, we saw a combined 1,176,000 deaths, not "casualties", or "wounded, dead, and missing", but actual deaths--and folks are calling for us to see that many or more from this virus here because they want to watch football and don't want to wear a mask.
Yeah, a percentage sounds small when you look at 0.6%. But when you take time to do the math and see what that looks like across the population, you understand that there is very good reason that our government officials are worried.
Keep in mind too that Utah has one of the lowest mortality rates among the states -- we're behind only Oregon, Hawaii, Maine, Wyoming, Vermont, and Alaska. In NYC, the current mortality rate is above 5%. One million dead in the US on the path to herd immunity is a very conservative estimate.
I think Utah has been pretty damn smart in how they have been reacting to the virus. They have targeted enhanced restrictions to the communities experiencing the greatest surge rather than coming down on communities that are not seeing increases. I expect Salt Lake County will see orange-level status in the next week if things don't turn around there.
If the ICU numbers don't turn around (COVID ICU bed usage rate is up 89% since September 1, and is now over 70% capacity), I wouldn't be surprised to see the entire state go back to orange before Halloween.
I think Utah is doing a pretty damn good job trying to strike a balance between keeping the economy afloat and slowing spread while we wait for a vaccine by targeting the communities seeing higher contagion rates.