Latest on Conference Realignment

[E-Zone15]

You don't have to worry about BYU joining a P5 in all of this conference realignment because there will not be a P5 after this is all said and done. The Big12, if it does nothing, will not retain P5 membership. It's been reported that their TV revenue will likely drop from $37m/year to $4-$7m/year. Adding a few G5 teams will not change that, even adding a P5 caliber BYU will not change that. Their only hope at this point is to convince USC, UCLA, Oregon and BYU to join them. But what motivation would they have for that?

BYU will remain independent.

I don't see it ever going that low, first off the $37 million is more than just TV revenue (the Big 12 TV deals with Fox and ESPN pays out about $23, $24, $25, and $26 million over the last four years). So this last year it was at $26 million as for the rest of the contract. It likely may drop to $13 to $15 million (50% to 40%), but I see no way to the AAC and MWC level. It will be harder than a lot of people think to take a that P5 label away, 6 of the remaining 8 were founding Big12 members the Big12 is 1 of 5 conferences with autonomy (aka all of the P5 conferences), I can't that will be just taken away. So they will still be getting a P5 size check from the NCAA Football Playoff money (currently $50 million per year), Likely retain some of their better bowl games also (Big12 NY6 game likely will become a Playoff game). Still will be a very, very strong basketball conference (Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, ect), I've read each school gets around $2.5 million in NCAA credits yearly (Baylor is current National Champions).

[scott715]

If they add BYU they should see an increase in ticket sales. Maybe an extra $5M per year I think.

[E-Zone15]

If they add BYU they should see an increase in ticket sales. Maybe an extra $5M per year I think.

I kind of worry BYU may not want to make the move to a unstable Big12. But I really think that BYU should, that way BYU would be right there building the Big12 back up from the start (rather than the wait and see approach). The Big takes BYU and Boise St from the get go (AAC has a 27 month clause, UConn paid an extra $7 million or $17 million instead of $10 million to get out earlier). They would also invite Cincinnati and Houston or Memphis at the same time to join after the 27 months are up (a year later). That way they would take some of the best schools from both the AAC and MWC to further increase their gap between them and the G5 conferences. Both BYU and Boise St are know to be really good schools that fans will travel to their bowl games. The TV providers seem to give them a lot of air time for Western teams.

What will the Big12 be hoping to do after Texas and Oklahoma move onto the SEC? Here is how I see it:
1. Maintain P5 status, that why I feel they will need to to 12 again (no 2 added teams will equal the loss of Texas and Oklahoma, 4 will not either but it is better than only adding 2).
2. Try to maintain as much TV money as possible, the goal should be the very lowest $15 million and hope for at least $20 million per (they are currently at $26 million per right now).
3. As many of their good bowls as possible, the SEC will likely take 1 or 2 of their better bowl with Texas and Oklahoma in their conference. But the Big12's poor bowls pays as much as G5 top bowls pay. So can the Big12 keep 3 or 4 of their multi-million dollar bowls.
4. Leave no doubt between them and all the G5 conferences. Thus take top schools from both the top G5 conferences (AAC & MWC).

It would be a top basketball conference still also (Texas and Oklahoma are solid b-ball programs, as would be all the teams added). I would love to see Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, and ect coming to the Provo every year for b-ball.

[E-Zone15]

Time for a little rant, Jarom Jordan a complete moron... So I watch BYU Sports Nation on Thursday (7/22) right after the Texas and Oklahoma news was starting to break. Jarom Jordan was thankfully not on that day, but on Monday and Tuesday he was and talk about a piece of work (he is the type of BYU fan that give BYU a bad name. He even said BYU's TV contract only pays $4 to $8 million, is he just that clueless or just trying to mislead people? IMHO, he is just that clueless! Back when BYU went Independent Jay Drew was the one of the people claiming BYU 's media rights contract with ESPN was worth around $4.5 million (BYU was paid by game and by who they played), my connection to BYU's Athletic Department laugh when I asked how close Jay was (aka, not very close and that's what BYU likes). Then in either 2013 or 2014 Drew and 2 other BYU beat writers (I think it was Call and Dickson) change the number to be around $10 million a year in different stories they with in a week or two's time. Now taken to account BYU's media deal with ESPN was back loaded according to what TH said at the press conference. According to someone I trust BYU wanted to average at least $15 million a year at the time of the first contract with ESPN. It was reported that BYU was not going to get what they had hoped for, but the dollar amount was never given so people were all over the place with what it might be. The first few years hurt BYU's chance to make what they were hoping to average, but in the it sounds the average was under $2 million of what they had hoped for. Jay Drew was correct in the fact is who plays factors greatly into how much BYU pays for the game.
FWIW, has anyone heard anything reported about BYU not quite getting what they had hoped to get in this contract? That's because of what has been hinted to me is BYU will be making North of the $15 million they hoped for in the last contract.

So how is it that I only have a couple connection can better information than Jarom Jordan who works at BYU? $4 to $8 million, does this even make sense when looking at BYU's athletic revenue:
BYU's last full year in the MWC- $36,695,623
1/2 MWC & 1/2 Independent- $45,465,068
BYU's 1st full year Independent- $53,033,500
BYU's 2nd full year Independent- $54,644,578
BYU's 3rd full year Independent- $60,124,096
BYU's 4th full year Independent- $59,032,406
BYU's 5th full year Independent- $62,563,279
BYU's 6th full year Independent- $67,733,712
BYU's 7th full year Independent- $79,644,919
BYU's 8th full year Independent- $72,622,845
BYU's 9th full year Independent- $75,233,084

So lets use a bit of logic and break this revenue gains down. The last year in the MWC for BYU might have been their best, I know if not the best close to the best. Yet BYU's revenue jumped $8,769,445 with the Spring sports in the MWC (Jimmermana might have been a factor in the jump) and Independent/WCC in the Fall sports. I believe the MWC distributed more money that the WCC, because football bowls and football media deals. Actually I don't believe that would even be a factor, because I think conferences distributes monies after Spring sports so it would still be the MWC distribution.

Last full year MWC vs 1st full year Independent is a difference of $16,337,877, one has to ask where is all this gain coming from? Lets be honest here BYU basically gave up a MWC schedule for a WAC schedule those first few years.

The revenue makes a pretty steady climb, there is only 1 major break in the pattern and that is in year 7. I believe I know why it made the major jump and that is likely when the Marriott Center Annex was paid for. If it was say $9 million that would included in the athletic revenue for the year even though it was not money really earned but donated. So take off $9 million and the falls right in line with the pattern: $67 million, $70 million, $72 million, and $75 million.

Fact is BYU didn't go from $36,695,623 to $75,233,084 (a difference of $38,537,461) in athletic revenue by only having a media contract with ESPN that only pays $4 million to $8 million a year. Some of it can be explained by yearly facilities upgrades, better schedules/higher attendance revenue, bowl revenue, and few other things, but taking those thing into account it would still have to be much larger than $4 million to $8 million. People often forget that the MWC also had a media deal that was at least a couple million a year and when BYU went Independent they no longer got that money.

[scott715]

Nice work.

[scott715]

[Fido]

Reporter from the Dallas Morning News:

Can confirm via industry source that BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston have emerged as the four leading contenders in Big 12 expansion. Told timeline is fuzzy but process could be completed sometime during the academic year.

One factor favoring BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston in Big 12 expansion, I'm told, is they all have large, passionate alumni bases that could be attractive to media partners.

I'm not trying to get hopes up too high, but it sounds like things are getting fairly serious and they appear ready to expand this time (as opposed to the last round of expansion consideration that went nowhere).

[scott715]

Yes things are looking really good. And should move pretty fast giving us time to alter game contracts and move as soon as they want. There is a chance the offer will be football only though.

[scott715]

How would our other sports fit in. The data sources are not accurate but they give an idea of how well they would compete to start.

Football
1 ISU
2 OSU
3 TCU
4 WVU
5 KSU
6 BU
7 TTU
8 BYU
9 KU

BASKETBALL
1 BU
2 KU
3 TTU
4 WVU
5 BYU
6 OSU
7 TCU
8 KSU
9 ISU

WOMEN BASKETBALL
1 BU
2 WVU
3 ISU
4 BYU
5 OSU
6 TTU
7 KSU
8 TCU
9 KU

BASEBALL
1 TCU
2 TTU
3 WVU
4 BU
5 OSU
6 BYU
7 KU
8 KSU

WOMEN VOLLEYBALL
1 BYU
2 BU
3 KSU
4 KU
5 ISU
6 TCU
7 TTU
8 WVU
9 OSU

MEN'S X COUNTRY
1 BYU
2 OSU
3 ISU
4
5
6
7
8
9

WOMEN'S X COUNTRY
1 BYU
2 OSU
3 ISU
4 WVU
5
6
7
8
9

MEN'S GOLF
1 OSU
2 TTU
3 BU
4 TCU
5 KU
6 BYU
7 KSU
8 WVU
9 ISU

WOMEN'S GOLF
1 OSU
2 BU
3 TTU
4 ISU
5 TCU
6 KSU
7 KU
8 BYU
9

WOMEN'S SOCCER
1 TCU
2 WVU
3 OSU
4 BYU
5 KU
6 BU
7 TTU
8 ISU
9 KSU

SOFTBALL
1 OSU
2 ISU
3 BU
4 BYU
5 KU
6 TTU
7
8
9

MEN'S TENNIS
1 BU
2 TCU
3 OSU
4 TTU
5 BYU
6
7
8
9

WOMEN'S TENNIS
1 BU
2 TTU
3 ASU
4 OSU
5 KU
6 KSU
7 TCU
8 BYU
9

MEN SWIM AND DIVE
NONE RANKED








MEN'S TRACK & FIELD
1 ISU
2 BYU
3 BU
4 TCU
5 TTU
6 KU
7 KSU
8
9

WOMEN'S TRACK & FIELD
1 BYU
2 BU
3 TTU
4 OSU
5 KSU
6 KU
7
8
9

[scott715]

The data sources did not copy over. I used Sagarin, realtimerpi and then a lot of small sites. I can provide any that you want to see. But really they just need to be ballpark.

I forgot one.

WOMEN'S GYM
1 BYU
2 ISU