NY6 Possibility
Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:36 pm
Only a small windowFrom the spreadsheet below, BYU's chance to break into a NY6 bowl very limited.
Looking at the top 6 teams, plus Georgia, I'd say they were all a lock, unless some HUGE upset came.
Here's is the BIG problem. There are very few games left and no one is playing anyone. Losing a P5 conference championship won't knock teams out of top 12, except possibly B12 championship game.
A #10 pretty much locks BYU and I believe that is what the CFP selection committee had in mind when they ranked BYU clear back at a #14 in the initial ranking. We get there, probability is high. CFP selection committee doesn't seem to care what others (that means anyone other than P5's and the 1 G5 team) think on how they have set up these rankings, so even getting a #12, they would probably bypass BYU (a #12 has been bypassed once in short 5-year history). #11 is a little tougher for them to look beyond, but a #10 pretty much cements it.
So, we need loses by Indiana, Oklahoma, Miami or Iowa State. Of those 4 teams, only Oklahoma and Iowa State probably will make a conference championship game. Indiana beats Wisconsin and Purdue and they'll be locked in. Miami beats Duke, UNC and Georgia Tech and they're locked in. They control their destiny.
Teams we have to cheer for:
Wisconsin to beat Indiana ( I would love to see Wisconsin win, and then lose to Iowa. Wisconsin not going to make conference championship game unless B1G changes conference rules, but if they beat both Indiana and Iowa, they could easily jump us. You need 6 games to qualify for conference championship game and Wisconsin doesn't have but 2 on their remaining schedule (they are currently 2-1)). I don't believe them beating Indiana propels them past BYU, unless we lose, but who knows. Purdue won't be a pushover as that is Indiana's in-state rival, but if they beat Wisconsin, they might still be allowed a loss to Purdue, but I doubt it.
North Carolina to beat Miami (or Duke/Georgia Tech, which isn't very probable)
WVU to beat Iowa State or Iowa State to lose in conference championship.
Oklahoma to lose in conference championship
I really believe that playing and beating CCU was needed to help us not lose ground, but it will take a loss by Indiana, Oklahoma, Miami or Iowa St to get us any movement forward at all. Oklahoma or Iowa State are guaranteed one more loss as they will play in conference championship. Hope it is a big win by one or other.
Of course, this all ends if we lose to CCU or SDSU. We beat them both, and a #12 is pretty certain, but could still leave us highly vulnerable for NY6.