Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season 11/2

[redneckjedi]

Welcome to services for The Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season! Before we begin, we have some announcements:

• Oklahoma State likely eliminated itself and the Big XII from the playoffs with an overtime loss to Texas. They still have to play Oklahoma, who dropped 62 on Texas Tech.
• Kansas State, not wanting to be left out, lost to West Virginia.
• Bronco Mendenhall did us a solid by erasing any hope North Carolina had in making the ACC a two-playoff-team conference, by beating them 44-41 and just managing to not blow a 21-point lead.
• Sparty also helped us out with their win over Michigan, preventing the Wolverines from leapfrogging BYU, and making the B1G Ten look a little like the Big XII.
• COVID-19 also gave us an assist in passing up Wisconsin, whose game with Nebraska was canceled. They dropped despite not losing. They have 22 positive cases now, which casts some doubt on future games as well. Thoughts and prayers to everyone for a full recovery, but not to recover their ranking.
• COVID-19 almost caused a serious issue with The Plan of Happiness, as Clemson played Boston College (who barely beat Texas State) without Trevor Lawrence, and trailed them by 18 at one point. They then proceeded to score 24 unanswered points and restore balance to the universe.
• This week is now a big frickin' deal! We are playing on the road at ranked Boise State; Clemson is traveling to Notre Dame without Trevor Lawrence and needs to win without him; Georgia and Florida will do their best Thunderdome impression; Cincy hosts Houston in a battle that could simultaneously boost our SOS and eliminate an obstacle; and the Pac-12 gets their dumpster fire started.

Spiritual Thought:

And I say unto you, Make to yourselves friends of the mammon of unrighteousness; that, when ye fail, they may receive you into everlasting habitations.

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BYU to CFB PLAYOFF
Current Odds: 13.9% (+0.6%) ESPN Playoff Predictor

Team (Record)        Make Playoff  Win Title
Alabama (6-0)        88.3%         31.2%
Ohio State (2-0)     85.0%         36.3%
Clemson (7-0)        72.3%         15.8%
Wisconsin (1-0)      39.9%          7.5%
Georgia (4-1)        26.5%          4.2%
Notre Dame (6-0)     24.9%          1.9%
Oregon (0-0)         17.9%          1.0%
USC (0-0)            14.9%          0.8%
BYU (7-0)            13.9%          0.5%
Cincinnati (5-0)      4.5%          0.2%
Florida (3-1)         4.3%          0.3%
Indiana (2-0)         1.3%          <.1%
Oklahoma State (4-1)  1.2%          <.1%
Utah (0-0)            1.1%          <.1%
Oklahoma (4-2)        1.0%          <.1%
Northwestern (2-0)    0.9%          <.1%

Current Rankings:
AP                         | Coaches
---------------------------+---------------------------
1.  Clemson (7-0)          | 1.  Clemson (7-0)
2.  Alabama (6-0)          | 2.  Alabama (6-0)
3.  Ohio State (2-0)       | 3.  Ohio State (2-0)
4.  Notre Dame (6-0)       | 4.  Notre Dame (6-0)
5.  Georgia (4-1)          | 5.  Georgia (4-1)
6.  Cincinnati (5-0)       | 6.  Cincinnati (5-0)
7.  Texas A&M (4-1)        | 7.  Texas A&M (4-1)
8.  Florida (3-1)          | 8.  Florida (3-1)
9.  BYU (7-0)              | 9.  BYU (7-0)
10. Wisconsin (1-0)        | 10. Miami (5-1)
11. Miami (5-1)            | 11. Wisconsin (1-0)
12. Oregon (0-0)           | 12. Oklahoma State (4-1)
13. Indiana (2-0)          | 13. Indiana (2-0)
14. Oklahoma State (4-1)   | 14. Oregon (0-0)
15. Coastal Carolina (6-0) | 15. Marshall (5-0)
16. Marshall (5-0)         | 16. Coastal Carolina (6-0)
17. Iowa State (4-2)       | 17. Iowa State (4-2)
18. SMU (6-1)              | 18. SMU (6-1)
19. Oklahoma (4-2)         | 19. Oklahoma (4-2)
20. USC (0-0)              | 20. USC (0-0)
21. Boise State (2-0)      | 21. Auburn (4-2)
22. Texas (4-2)            | 22. Army (6-1)
23. Michigan (1-1)         | 23. Boise State (2-0)
24. Auburn (4-2)           | 24. North Carolina (4-2)
25. Liberty (6-0)          | 25. Michigan (1-1)

Easiest Playoff Path:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. BYU

Biggest Obstacles
1. Notre Dame
2. Texas A&M
3. Georgia
3. Florida
5. Wisconsin
6. An undefeated Pac-12 team
7. Cincinnati

Potential Obstacles
1. Indiana
2. Miami still ahead of them in rankings
3. Michigan likely loss to Ohio State ??? eliminates them
4. Oklahoma State most likely already eliminated, but another loss (OU?)
   finishes them off

Obstacles Eliminated
1. SMU obliterated by Cincinatti, should not be a problem
2. Iowa State second loss to Oklahoma State
3. North Carolina second loss to Virginia
4. Kansas State second loss to West Virginia
5. Penn State second loss to Ohio State

Requirements:
1. BYU is undefeated
 A. 10/24 vs Texas State 
 B. 10/31 vs Western Kentucky 
 C. 11/06 @  Boise
 D. 11/21 vs North Alabama
 E. 11/28 @  Army? (here's hoping!)
 F. 12/12 vs San Diego State
2. No conference gets two teams in
 A. SEC
  I.   Alabama wins out, wins SEC title game
       (vs Georgia/Florida in SEC title)
  II.  Texas A&M needs another loss (11/28 vs LSU, 12/5 @ Auburn)
   a. Any loss works, shouldn't contribute to leapfrogging
  III. Georgia/Florida (11/7) winner loses SEC title game (vs Bama?)
   a. Prefer UGA over FLA, it's doubtful anyone wants UGA vs Bama 3
 B. ACC
  I.   Clemson wins out, wins ACC title game
  II.  Notre Dame needs 2 losses (11/7 vs Clem, 11/27 @ UNC, ACC CHAMP?)
   a. Not many other chances for them to lose
   b. ND-Clem II in the ACC title game may be the best chance to eliminate ND
  III. Miami needs 1 more loss (11/6 @ NCST, 11/14 @ VT, 12/5 vs UNC)
  IV.  North Carolina eliminated 
   a. Loss @ FSU
   b. Second loss @ UVA
 C. B1G
  I.   Ohio State rolls everyone (10/31 @ PSU , 12/12 vs Mich),
       wins title game
  II.  Winner of Michigan vs Penn State (11/28) loses to someone else 
       besides Ohio State
   a. Penn State loss to Indiana 
   b. Michigan loss to Michigan State 
  III. Indiana loses to someone (11/7 vs Mich, 12/5 @ Wisc) besides OSU
  IV. West division winner has 1 loss before title game
3. 2 P5 conferences get zero teams in (PAC-12, Big XII?)
 A. PAC-12 does what the PAC-12 does
  I.   Title game winner (#12 Oregon? #20 USC?) has 1+ losses
 B. Big XII continues to self-immolate 
  I.   Oklahoma State needs at least one loss, preferrably two 
       (10/24 vs ISU, 10/31 vs UT , 11/7 @ KSU, 11/21 @ OU )
   a. Loss to UT 
  II.  Kansas State eliminated 
   a. Bad loss to Arkansas St.
   b. Loss to West Virginia
  III. Iowa State eliminated 
   a. Bad loss to Lousiana
   b. Loss to OKST
4. G5 gets no teams in
 A. AAC
  I.   Cincinnatti needs 1 loss
       (10/24 vs SMU, 11/7 vs Houston)
  II.  SMU eliminated 
   a) Loss to Cincinnatti
 B. C-USA
  I.   Marshall needs 1 loss
   a. Any loss would be an upset
 C. MW
  I.   Boise State/SDSU wins title game
 D. MAC
  I.   Not much concern here yet
 E. Sun Belt
  I.   Coastal Carolina needs 1 loss
  
Games to Watch (best outcome-actual outcome):
10/24
BYU vs TXST    (BYU-BYU)   
SMU vs Cincy   (SMU-Cincy) 
OKST vs ISU    (ISU-OKST)  
PSU vs ISU     (ISU-ISU)   

10/31
BYU vs WKU     (BYU-BYU)   
PSU vs OSU     (OSU-OSU)   
OKST vs UT     (UT-UT)     
MICH vs MSU    (MSU-MSU)   
UVA vs UNC     (UVA-UVA)   

11/6-7
BYU @ Boise    (BYU)
ND vs Clem     (Clem)
UGA vs FLA     (UGA)
NCST vs Miami  (NCST)
Cincy vs HOU   (HOU)
USC vs ASU     (ASU)
ORE vs STAN    (STAN)
ARIZ vs     (ARIZ)

11/14
VT vs Miami    (VT)

11/21
BYU vs UNA     (BYU)
OU vs OKST     (OU)
UCF vs Cincy   (UCF)

11/27-28
UNC vs ND      (UNC)
A&M vs LSU     (LSU)
Mich vs PSU    (PSU)

12/5
Aub vs A&M     (Aub)
Miami vs UNC   (UNC)
Tulsa vs Cincy (Tulsa)
WISC vs IU     (IU)

12/12
BYU vs SDSU    (BYU)
OSU vs Mich    (OSU)
ACC CHAMP?     (Clem)
Big XII CHAMP? (???)

12/18-19
SEC CHAMP      (Bama)
B1G CHAMP      (OSU)
ACC CHAMP?     (Clem)
PAC 12 CHAMP   (???)

By the hand of Zach Wilson and the power of Boney Fuller, so let it be written, so let it be done.

[hawkwing]

BYU is undefeated!!

[scott715]

I believe. Help thou my unbelief.

[redneckjedi]

I believe. Help thou my unbelief.

A dominant win over a ranked team on the road. Two guaranteed losses to teams ranked above us. Throw in a Houston upset of Cincy and Texas A&M stumbling, and we'll have the perfect weekend.

[vancouvercougar]

My testimony grows stronger each week!!

[GAKunkel]

Cincinnati won. We needed them to lose. Hopefully UCF or some other team beats Cinci.

Georgia lost, which is kinda good for us.