Revised BCS numbers 08-09

[scott715]

http://www.bcsevolution.com/2010/7/15/1 ... nt-and-bcs

With the realignment changes.

Average Rank of Highest Ranked Team
Conference BCS Max
BIG 12 1.5
SEC 1.5
PAC 10 6
MWC 6.5
BIG EAST 7.5
BIG 10 8
ACC 11.5
MAC 26.25
C-USA 39.66667
WAC 51.25
SUN BELT 55.25

The MWC has moved into the thick of the race here due to the recent conference changes.
A Colorado move would make no difference to this table.

Average Conference Ranking
Conf Comp-R
SEC 38.66
ACC 40.56
BIG EAST 43.06
PAC 10 45.59
BIG 12 48.22
BIG 10 48.88
MWC 58.42
WAC 80.97
C-USA 81.06
MAC 86.60
SUN BELT 93.01

Adjusted Top 25 Performance Ranking
Conf Top 25 Adust
MWC 11.25 100.00%
SEC 11 97.78%
BIG 10 10.6875 95.00%
BIG 12 10.6875 95.00%
PAC 10 10.6875 95.00%
BIG EAST 7.5 66.67%
ACC 6 53.33%
MAC 0.5 4.44%
WAC 0 0.00%
C-USA 0 0.00%
SUN BELT 0 0.00%

The MWC takes the lead in this category despite the loss of Utah.

[Lawboy]

Average Conference Ranking
Conf Comp-R
SEC 38.66
ACC 40.56
BIG EAST 43.06
PAC 10 45.59
BIG 12 48.22
BIG 10 48.88
MWC 58.42
WAC 80.97
C-USA 81.06
MAC 86.60
SUN BELT 93.01

This is the one that kills us. And indicts the bottom of the conference. The bottom feeders are killing us, and making us weaker than the other big conferences. And if the MWC does not get the auto invite, it will be this reason alone. The SDSU's, UNM's, UNLV's and at times, CSU and Wyoming, are killing the rest of the conference. And with the ACC and Big East at #2 and #3, that kills us even more. Their depth could just outshine our top heavy strength.

[YNot]

The addition of Boise State will really help the MWC this upcoming season (as opposed to what Utah would have brought). They are in the pre-season top-5 and should easily finish ranked higher than Utah. I have no doubt they will bring more for the MWC in 2011 than Utah would have.

As pointed out, however, what the MWC desperately needs is for an Air Force, CSU, Wyoming, or SDSU to crack the top 25 and for these four schools to do well out of conference. Unfortunately, Air Force plays Oklahoma and Wyoming plays Texas in 2010. (Why couldn't they be playing Baylor and Iowa State?).

I could see SDSU beat up on its FCS and WAC opponents, but they play at Missouri. That would be a signature win for the MWC. It would also be great to see CSU beat Colorado (again) and top Idaho and Nevada (on the road).

BSU, TCU, and BYU will handle things fine, but we need AFA, Wyoming, CSU, and SDSU to win 3 of 4 of their non-conference games and for UNLV and New Mexico to win SOMETHING out of conference (UNLV could beat Wisconsin at home, as it nearly did a couple of years ago) and New Mexico, well, at Oregon and against Texas Tech is asking too much, but wins over NMSU and UTEP are within reach.

[gmj81]

If the ACC is 7th in two of them but is already included, I see no reason why the MWC, being 7th in only one and 1st in another shouldn't be included.

I like the conferences chances of going 80% victorious in the non-conference this year. Sure, there are some near guaranteed losses like @ Texas and @ OU. But I actually think, if those two teams don't give the adequate respect to Wyoming and AFA this year they could wind up on the losing end of the stick. We saw it last year with Texas before they came out with a much better second half performance. But this Cowboy team will be much improved over last season's squad. And AFA always seems to give teams fits who aren't familiar with their attack.

As long as the conference can go 80%, I think we'll be on the road to BCS inclusion. If we can get a fourth team in the top 25 this year (AFA/Wyoming) with another team just on the outside, that would go a long way to improving our situation too. If the pukes wind up behind AFA and Wyoming that would be even better. But if BSU and TCU both make another BCS bowl this year (maybe one in the NC game), it would be almost impossible to exclude us I would think.

[scott715]

Except for their rules. ACC is already in, newcomers need top 6 in all 3. NM is the team that has really dropped the ball. The other bottom teams have shown some improvement. Utah needs to get creamed this year and maybe we need to see some upsets of the top teams by the bottom.

i would like to see the ranking numbers including the bowl game records. That would make us look even better.

[gmj81]

Agreed on the pukes getting creamed. I've said it before but the remaining MWC coaches need to conference call every week to help make a game plan for whoever the Yew's opponent is that week. It would be ridiculous not to. Not only are we fighting for BCS inclusion, but this gives us a direct way to increase the numbers. It's like every team has an additional BCS team on the schedule this year. I've heard coaches say before that they will call colleagues to get help with their non-conference game prep but don't do it in conference. Well for the sake of the numbers, Yewtah isn't in our 'conference' anymore. We need to trash them and send them off to the Pac-10 all dirty and used up like all the girls on Pac-10 campuses.

[Mingjai]

Average Conference Ranking
Conf Comp-R
SEC 38.66
ACC 40.56
BIG EAST 43.06
PAC 10 45.59
BIG 12 48.22
BIG 10 48.88
MWC 58.42
WAC 80.97
C-USA 81.06
MAC 86.60
SUN BELT 93.01

This is the one that kills us. And indicts the bottom of the conference. The bottom feeders are killing us, and making us weaker than the other big conferences. And if the MWC does not get the auto invite, it will be this reason alone. The SDSU's, UNM's, UNLV's and at times, CSU and Wyoming, are killing the rest of the conference. And with the ACC and Big East at #2 and #3, that kills us even more. Their depth could just outshine our top heavy strength.

Looking at it from a BCS standpoint, it screams invite BYU, TCU, and BSU to one of the current BCS conferences, and then you don't have to add another conference. That would be the most cost effective way to address the situation, and maybe when the BCS realizes that there's no way get out of giving the MWC an automatic bid, they'll press the conferences make room for MWC's big 3.

[scott715]

They only need to take a couple of them. Maybe the Big 12 can get the Big East to take Iowa St and then they would take those three to get to 12?

[CougarPeasant]

Looking at it from a BCS standpoint, it screams invite BYU, TCU, and BSU to one of the current BCS conferences, and then you don't have to add another conference. That would be the most cost effective way to address the situation, and maybe when the BCS realizes that there's no way get out of giving the MWC an automatic bid, they'll press the conferences make room for MWC's big 3.

Let's visit for a moment which is more cost effective for the BCS. If BYU, TCU, and BSU are scooped up, they will require a minimun of $10 million each in TV revenu, then another $2-5 million in bowl sharing.

If the MWC is added as a 7th AQ conference, then that's only $18 million for one conference, instead of the $30-40 million for adding three more teams. And it really is only $9 million more each season since they only pay an extra $9 million should a non AQ team make it to a BCS bowl.

I think it would be cheaper for them to add the MWC now since BSU is in the fold and there is no real contenders outside of the MWC and BSU to crack the BCS bowl lineup.

I'm sure there's a flaw or three in my analysis, but it appears that MWC to the BCS is the most cost effective measure for the BCS. And that's not counting the legal costs they will likely incur should they deny the MWC that keeps TCU, BYU, and BSU.